Scotland and the EU

[Corky Smeek]

Scotland and the EU

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[Fulmar]

Ok, so that does mean the euro and a European passport then?

[Corky Smeek]

Ok, so that does mean the euro and a European passport then?

I take it you would rather have one of the new blue UK passports; that symbol of Britain regaining its identity after leaving the EU. I bet the thought of it fair makes your heart burst with pride, eh!

Except, Gemalto the French-Dutch company who won the contract to produce them is having them printed in Poland.

[Corky Smeek]

Oh, and in the spirit of ensuring people get both sides of the argument. It was agreed between the UK and Scottish governments that in the event of Scotland gaining its independence then anyone alive ( and two further generations) on the date of independence would have the right to dual citizenship and could have one, other or both passports as they see fit. You knew that, of course. But why let that get in the way of a good scare story?

[Fulmar]

You have got me completely wrong but there it is. Actually, I am genuinely interested in true answers and not at all in stupid point scoring which is all you seem to go in for. I actually thought (silly me) that after you highlighted the above, you might have given an answer but no. I could not care less what colour any passport might be nor where it is printed.
Here's my position and no doubt you'll just come back with your usual.
1. If there is a genuine and majority desire from the Scottish public, proved by consistent polls to have indyref 2 now or whenever, then I have no problem with that. I do think that in that case, it should be held but as yet, I've not seen the evidence for that.
2. If and when indyref 2 is held and the majority vote is in favour of independence then so be it. That is democracy and I will accept that result. I may not like it much and perhaps I'll be worried but it will be democratic in that case.
3, Gronnuck said in another place ''Given the situation we’re now in, what positivity for Scotland do you see in Boris Johnston, the Conservatives and the current Westminster government''?
I did not answer but no, none whatsoever. I've never voted Tory and never will and that's my dilemma. It is wrong that Scotland is governed by a party in Westminster that the people do not support but it does not necessarily follow for me that the default position is to break away from the Union with all the ensuing economic uncertainty and chaos and that is what, in my view, there will be. Many people in the rest of the UK are miserable about that too and actually, the Tories (like the SNP) have the MPs but not the majority of those who cast a vote. Things will change at Westminster too- they have done so many times in my lifetime and they will change again. I await the outcome of the much more democratic Scottish elections that are to be held next year with interest.
As it happens and despite everything, I absolutely am proud of being a citizen of Scotland and of the UK. I respect the Queen too who has served the UK all her life. There are many worse places to be and if it is so awful how come countless numbers of poor migrant people are risking their lives to get here each and every day.
4. I don't consider it unreasonable to want answers to fundamental questions that will absolutely affect me and the fact that you poor scorn on such things makes me extremely wary of you and your views. And there will be countless thousands of others like me out there who remain to be convinced.

[Corky Smeek]

OK. Well, I did reply to your point on passports. I hope that what I said answers it.

In so far as evidence justifying IndyRef2 goes there is quite a bit. Firstly, the polls show that the country is split roughly 50:50 on the issue. It is now well over 5 years since IndyRef1 yet roughly 50% of the Scottish population are still saying they favour independence. That figure of 50% represents an increase on the IndyRef1 result with a corresponding decrease on the No side. Any situation where half the population of a country say they favour something but are constantly told to forget about it is not sustainable in the long term. The aspirations of that group must be addressed in some form or another. Westminster and Unionists telling Indy-minded people that just because a vote was held 5 years ago the issue is decided does not satisfy those aspirations. All that type of approach does is drive home to many Scots that Westminster is not listening and that Scotland's issues are not deemed important, in a UK context, or indeed properly understood by the Westminster metropolitan elite.
Even when the SNP had 56 MPs, Westminster appeared unable to adjust to the message they had been given. The childish antics of hordes of Tory MPs theatrically walking out of the HoC when Ian Blackford stands up to speak just reinforces the view that Parliament neither understands, respects nor cares about the Scottish electorate.
The SNP have been in power in Holyrood since 2007. They have been the largest Scottish party at Westminster at the last 3 GE's. Despite this, plenty of people, on here and elsewhere, seem reluctant to accept that the Scottish people are saying something different to people in other parts of the UK. The Brexit result is just one, very significant, way that has illustrated this. Many people feel very strongly that the votes cast by people in Scotland just don't matter.
These are but a few of the reasons why support for independence has grown since IndyRef1 and why something needs to be done. Had the various promises of mid-late September 2014 been kept then perhaps we would be in a different situation. But they weren't and we are not. We are here, in early 2020 staring Brexit in the face despite what Ruth Davidson said (see poster in opening post).

If/when IndyRef2 is held and the vote goes the way of Yes then sure, lots of people will be worried. That is completely understandable and their concerns must be addressed. But, nothing is ever achieved without taking risks and I know that mistakes will be made along the way. But they will be our mistakes and it will be up to us to fix them and to set our own national priorities. Like you I have never voted Tory in my life and never intend to. However, if an independent Scotland votes for a Scottish Tory government then I will accept that fact graciously. I shall console myself with the knowledge that it was the choice of the Scottish people; not the choice of people in a different country who put our government in power.

It is not unreasonable to ask for answers to fundamental questions. The problem with providing them on a public forum is that it just invites a pile-on from some of the more unruly elements. I feel sure this response will also do just that. What I find difficult to accept, however, is the assertion by some that the Scottish Government has not done enough to provide answers. Over the last 7 years or so huge tomes have been produced in an attempt to allay fears and answer questions. All of this literature is freely available to read/download and its volume is in stark contrast to the amount produced by UKG to prepare us all for Brexit.

We'll see how this one goes. If, as I suspect, the usual suspects respond in the usual way then don't say I didn't warn you!

[Oddquine]

Ok, so that does mean the euro and a European passport then?

If we join the EU, it will be a European Passport like the one the UK has now, but we don't have to have it in burgundy or whatever that shade is...just as the UK always could have it in blue if they wanted. There was never any need to have the EU standard colour or leave the EU to have a blue passport.

The adopt the Euro is a fudge. Everybody has to promise to join it, but first it has to meet the five convergence criteria, with no time limit as to how long it has to take. The last of the convergence criteria which has to be met is the exchange rate stability criterion, which requires having been an ERM-member for a minimum of two years without the presence of "severe tensions" for the currency exchange rate. Remember that one...the one the UK failed at.

Sweden has been in the EU since 1995 and the people voted in 2003 not to join the Euro, and since then Sweden has avoided fulfilling the adoption requirements by not joining ERM II, which is voluntary. Personally I'd as soon at least start in EFTA/EEA and see how that works for us, before going back into the EU

[Fulmar]

I just hate all the bitterness and true nastiness. It does scare me. Heaven help us all if we don't learn to not indulge in that whichever side of the argument we are on.

[orkneycadian]

2. If and when indyref 2 is held and the majority vote is in favour of independence then so be it. That is democracy and I will accept that result. I may not like it much and perhaps I'll be worried but it will be democratic in that case.

And don't forget, by the SNP / seperatist precedent, that there would need to be a majority in all counting areas in Scotland, not just Scotland overall. If just one counting area votes no, then thats is, status quo, as we cannot have one (or more) part(s) of Scotland being dragged out of the UK against their will. That's the rules the SNP wanted for the Independence referendum in 2016.

[Corky Smeek]

I just hate all the bitterness and true nastiness. It does scare me. Heaven help us all if we don't learn to not indulge in that whichever side of the argument we are on.

Essentially, that is what I was saying. The country is split pretty much 50:50 and we need to be having a serious debate about the constitution. It is not acceptable for Westminster just to ignore one half of that divide. It is neither sustainable politically nor morally justifiable. History, especially that of the British Empire, tells us that ignoring the wishes of large sections of a population rarely ends well for the controlling power. You would have thought that the UKG would at least recognise that and engage in debate. This constant brushing-away of Scottish issues is just not good enough. I would even assert that in many ways it is responsible for, and feeds, the toxicity that does exist as it causes huge bitterness and resentment.

Edit: I've just found out that during a debate on NHS funding in the HoC today, Matt Hancock, Sec of State for Health got up and walked out of the chamber the minute Dr Philippa Whitford rose to speak. The latest in a long line of such incidents. It's not good enough.

[mi16]

I see your point actually 50% of the electorate cannot be ignored.
Perhaps a 70% for threshold should be introduced for any future referendums to ensure a decent majority if any major changes are to be made.

[Corky Smeek]

I see your point actually 50% of the electorate cannot be ignored.
Perhaps a 70% for threshold should be introduced for any future referendums to ensure a decent majority if any major changes are to be made.

Yawn!!!!!!

[Corky Smeek]

There is a lot of goodwill (and sympathy) towards Scotland from EU countries. Amidst it all, it was particularly heartening to see the actions of local officials in Leeuwarden in the Netherlands. The city has a parade of EU flags decorating the street outside the main station. Brexit meant they were faced with having to remove all the Union Jacks. They have decided to replace the UJs with Saltires in solidarity with us poor beleaguered Scots. Good on them.

https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/02/leeuwarden-replaces-union-jack-with-scottish-saltire-after-brexit/

[Fulmar]

Do you think it inevitable that the Scottish people will wish to re-join the EU after gaining Independence, if that is what happens? I know the vote figures were for Remain by a large margin but as you say, things have moved on since then and I guess there could be those who would prefer to be independent outside of the EU as the rest of the UK wil be and have a looser arrangement? Oddquine seems to think this perhaps?

[orkneycadian]

It's a bit of a hypothetical question. Scottish independence cannot happen without a Yes vote from every area in Scotland, Orkney and Shetland included. That needs a major swing from No to Yes, of at least 17%. I don't think that's likely to happen in the foreseeable future.

[Corky Smeek]

Do you think it inevitable that the Scottish people will wish to re-join the EU after gaining Independence, if that is what happens? I know the vote figures were for Remain by a large margin but as you say, things have moved on since then and I guess there could be those who would prefer to be independent outside of the EU as the rest of the UK wil be and have a looser arrangement? Oddquine seems to think this perhaps?

I'm not sure to be honest. Personally I favour re-joining but if, after independence, the Scottish electorate vote for something else then that is something I would accept not least because it would be a decision we in Scotland had made about our own future. At the end of the day that is all I really want for Scotland. It not that alien a concept, surely, that the people who live in a country should be the ones to make the decisions about its future.

[Oddquine]

Do you think it inevitable that the Scottish people will wish to re-join the EU after gaining Independence, if that is what happens? I know the vote figures were for Remain by a large margin but as you say, things have moved on since then and I guess there could be those who would prefer to be independent outside of the EU as the rest of the UK wil be and have a looser arrangement? Oddquine seems to think this perhaps?

I don't presume to know what SNP party members think, but, imo, EFTA/EEA would be a more realistic(and quicker) entry point and we can wait and see how it goes from there. It will, if nothing else, either convince our farmers and fishermen that the EU wasn't so bad, or confirm that, as they seem to think, we'd be better out of it. I have never understood why the UK left EFTA/EEA in the first place, given they were the biggest fish there(and Westminster does like being a top dog.) In fact, I voted to come out of the EU in the 1975 referendum, but voted remain this last time, because, all in all, the EU has been beneficial, for Scotland at least.

As far as I can see, trade-wise, the important thing for Scotland is not being in the EU, but being in the EEA and maintaining geographical indications and protected food names,even if there are some rules and regulations to be followed, and Boris's current red lines, if he sticks to them, make any useful deal with the EU unlikely. Also, as far as I can see, the only way the UK is going to be able to get enough trade deals to make up for the 49% of seamless trade we did with the EU in 2018 is to lower food standards and every other standard to accommodate the likes of the USA, and that, in its turn, will make problems exporting to the EU.

Given that, in the time since Article 50 was triggered, we have managed only about 8% of total UK trade, by replicating EU trade deals already in place, not by negotiating new deals, it is going to take a long time to get back to even where we were, far less improve our economy, not helped by the fact that the UK hasn't negotiated a trade deal for 40 years or so and don't seem to have made a great job of any negotiations with the EU so far.

[Fulmar]

I voted to remain in the EU and as you say, being in it has been good for Scotland overall but I think that your approach seems fair to me.!

[Goodfellers]

If Scotland does gain independance at some point in the future, then according to nationalists on this site, Scotland will become a far wealthier country. I hope that is true.

So why re-join the EU to hand over cash?

Would it not be better to get the infrastructure of Scotland up to 21st century standards first, make sure all our public services have the money they want, and eliminate poverty before thinking about joining?

What is the rush?

[Corky Smeek]

If Scotland does gain independance at some point in the future, then according to nationalists on this site, Scotland will become a far wealthier country. I hope that is true.

So why re-join the EU to hand over cash?

Would it not be better to get the infrastructure of Scotland up to 21st century standards first, make sure all our public services have the money they want, and eliminate poverty before thinking about joining?

What is the rush?

If one looks at the current economic growth rates of EU countries the ones doing best are the smaller countries - here (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_Union_member_states_by_GDP_growth ). The largest economies are right at the bottom. What is so different about Scotland that you would doubt that we could not fare just as well as, for example, Ireland? We have far greater advantages than many, if not all, of these countries. Why do you think Scotland would fail to prosper in the EU?

The EU is essentially a club. You have to pay a membership fee to be entitled to the benefits of that club. If, as a country, you end up wealthier why would you quibble about the size of the fee?

The SG is doing all it can to improve Scotland's infrastructure. The Queensferry Crossing; The Borders Rail Link; The M74/M8 link and the dualling of the A9 south of Inverness are a few of the better known examples. The problem is we have a "pocket-money economy" with very limited borrowing powers. All of these infrastructure programmes have been deemed, by Westminster, to be Scottish-only projects and so had to be funded by the SG from its funds. You can only spend what you are given and the SG has, somehow, to balance all the various needs. The progress it has made so far has been astonishing but there is still work to do. Given the level of opposition to all of these projects by the three main Scottish opposition parties I doubt any would have been given the green light had any of them been in power. In stark contrast, of course, is HS2 which has been deemed a UK infrastructure project. The runaway costs of it cannot be ignored as current estimates put it at over £100 billion; or to put it another way, 3½ times the budget the SG gets to run the whole of Scotland for an entire year.

If these are not all good reasons to rush I don't know what are!

[Goodfellers]

So correct me if I'm wrong.

You would want Scotland to join as soon as possible, even though there would be huge calls for the cash at home, and be happy to hand that cash to the EU to spend on somewhere like Romania rather than here?

[Corky Smeek]

So correct me if I'm wrong.

You would want Scotland to join as soon as possible, even though there would be huge calls for the cash at home, and be happy to hand that cash to the EU to spend on somewhere like Romania rather than here?

Yes, I would prefer Scotland to re-join the EU as soon as it possibly can.

As I said in my earlier post the EU is a club and you have to pay the membership fee. At the same time as Scotland is handing over cash, the 27 other EU member states are doing likewise and some of that money will be spent in Scotland. Money doesn't just get sent to the EU to be spent elsewhere. A great deal of it is returned to member states to finance domestic projects. Also, don't forget that at this stage Scotland would be an independent country and would be freed from any financial obligation to support the renewal of Trident within rUK. That alone would make a substantial difference to the amount of cash available to be used domestically. Add in the savings Scotland would make by not having to help foot the bill for UK infrastructure projects and many more billions of pounds become available.

What's not to like?

[Goodfellers]

I do understand the basics of EU funding after the infamous claim of £350 million. When in reality,as you said we do get some back. In the case of the UK I think it's about £90 million, meaning our fee is about £260 million a week.

Now, if Scotland is going to be as well off as you predict, we will be paying in far more than we get out. I don't think that's the right thing to do until this country is completely fixed. I see no benefit in passing our cash on to poorer countries until we have no more poor of our own.

[Corky Smeek]

I do understand the basics of EU funding after the infamous claim of £350 million. When in reality,as you said we do get some back. In the case of the UK I think it's about £90 million, meaning our fee is about £260 million a week.

Now, if Scotland is going to be as well off as you predict, we will be paying in far more than we get out. I don't think that's the right thing to do until this country is completely fixed. I see no benefit in passing our cash on to poorer countries until we have no more poor of our own.

I'm not sure we can use those figures to justify any arguments for or against Scotland being in the EU. At this early stage I am sure no-one has sat down and worked out precise figures. That would be for negotiation at the time of application.

I'm also not sure I have made any predictions about how well off an independent Scotland would be in the EU but your argument seems self-defeating in any case. Just hypothetically, surely paying in more than we get out is of less importance if the net result is Scotland being as well off as you say I predict. It would be a price worth paying to have the country prosper, wouldn't it?

How can you completely fix all the problems in a country? No country that has ever achieved that or is ever likely to. Most of us can't even manage it within our own families. We have to be realistic. Yes, there will be problems and yes, they will need to be fixed but they will be done in a manner that suits Scotland. I would also suggest that the likelihood of any problems, such as poverty, being fixed whilst Scotland is in the UK is far less than if we were in the EU.

[orkneycadian]

Glad to see that the SNP led government are spending our tax contributions wisely on the things we really need in Scotland like education and healthcare and not frittering it away on political publicity stunts.

www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/1119703/snp-silent-on-claims-it-arranged-europe-loves-scotland-light-show-on-side-of-european-commission-building-on-brexit-night/

Glad to hear too that there's no attempts at deception going on and it wasn't made to look like the EU arranged it.

[orkneycadian]

Looks like the EU don't quite love the SNP as much as the SNP thought;

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/brexit-eu-commission-snp-projection-brussels-police-report-a9327481.html%3famp

EU officials report SNP ‘Europe loves Scotland’ projection to police

[Goodfellers]

According to Shabbychic on the 'westminster running scared' thread this is an outright lie and a retraction /correction should be made by the MSM.

Interesting to see what plays out.

[Shabbychic]

According to Shabbychic on the 'westminster running scared' thread this is an outright lie and a retraction /correction should be made by the MSM.

Interesting to see what plays out.

In a hurry at the moment, but here's a quick link (https://www.thenational.scot/news/18224731.european-commission-denies-reporting-snp-projection-police/).

Enjoy:)