Indy 2

[rob murray]

Scotland's first minister has said a second independence referendum is "highly likely" after the UK voted to leave the EU. The Scottish cabinet would meet on Saturday to discuss its next steps.

[Alrock]

The sooner the better, make Scotland an attractive proposition for any businesses south of the border considering relocation to an EU state.

[rob murray]

The sooner the better, make Scotland an attractive proposition for any businesses south of the border considering relocation to an EU state.

That assumes we will be an EU state and even if we are, in the time process involved are companies going to hang back until we are, then re locate ?

[tonkatojo]

The sooner the better, make Scotland an attractive proposition for any businesses south of the border considering relocation to an EU state.

Might be best reading this as it is not straight forward. http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/poli...p/index_en.htm

[tonkatojo]

That assumes we will be an EU state and even if we are, in the time process involved are companies going to hang back until we are, then re locate ?

Not an easy procedure read this. http://europa.eu/about-eu/countries/...u/index_en.htm

[rob murray]

Not an easy procedure read this. http://europa.eu/about-eu/countries/...u/index_en.htm

Thanks for the article, it should make it clear to everyone that gaining EU membership is not an easy done deal, but a complex situation which takes considerable time same as EU withdrawal which is even complex and a very time consuming lengthy process. Maybe some folk think its as easy as a phone call on Monday to EU and we are off...no more EU ta ta.......be prepared for a lengthy tortuous withdrawal process which will make lawyers fortunes

[Alrock]

That assumes we will be an EU state and even if we are, in the time process involved are companies going to hang back until we are, then re locate ?

Might be best reading this as it is not straight forward. http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/poli...p/index_en.htm

I have a feeling that the rest of the EU will play hardball with the UK to discourage other states from leaving & bending the rules/fast tracking Scotlands entry would be a good finger up to the Westminster Government.

[rob murray]

I have a feeling that the rest of the EU will play hardball with the UK to discourage other states from leaving & bending the rules/fast tracking Scotlands entry would be a good finger up to the Westminster Government.

There is no fast track system thats wishful thinking they have to follow a legal process as posted by tonkatojo

[Alrock]

There is no fast track system thats wishful thinking they have to follow a legal process as posted by tonkatojo

I don't see any timetable mentioned on that page & don't we meet all the criteria already seeing as we are still currently a member?

What do you think would be the stumbling block?

[mi16]

I could be wrong but is thee not a lot more regulations etc for new members to adopt.
We would have to go to the euro for a start.

The Dutch want their bite at a Euro exit now as well.
How will the EU regroup to fill the cash void the UK will leave.

[rob murray]

I don't see any timetable mentioned on that page & don't we meet all the criteria already seeing as we are still currently a member?

What do you think would be the stumbling block?

Yes no time table is specifically mentioned but the specifics, are a country wishing to join the EU submits a membership application to the Council, and an indy scotland would be a new country ie agreed Eu / UK wide precedents wont count, we would have to start from scratch, actually if we move to go we need to disentangle ourselves from rUK as we are and will be part of rUK unitl we get indy. The Commission then assesses the applicant’s ability to meet the Copenhagen criteria. If the Commission’s opinion is positive, the Council must then agree upon a negotiating mandate. Negotiations are then formally opened on a subject-by-subject basis.
Due to the huge volume of EU rules and regulations each candidate country must adopt as national law, the negotiations take time to complete. The candidates are supported financially, administratively and technically during this pre-accession period. So its not an over night easy process, of course it can be done but we have to be realistic here, the process is long. Incidentally there is nothing to stop the EU offering rUK an "acceptable" deal at any time which may prove acceptable to any new government as the withdrawal process itself for rUK is even more complex, whats stopping them is they would have to do other deals with other countries who have strong anti EU parties, legally the EU can do this but it may prove politically a bridge to far, and whose to say who will be in power in a couple of years and would they withdraw the leave card /have another referendum on renewed EU pledges reforms. One things for sure, today marks a core split in tories to much has been said...will UKIP lift real pro leave voters scunnered with tory infighting blue on blue fighting. UKIP are 100% EU out same cannot be said of Tories or indeed labour. So we sorta "out" but can be cajoled into staying given time and circumstances well in theory anyway

[Alrock]

I could be wrong but is thee not a lot more regulations etc for new members to adopt.
We would have to go to the euro for a start.

Probably will have to do a bit of tinkering around the edges & as for the Euro, that would probably be a price worth paying. Besides, will we really want to keep the Pound now?

[rob murray]

I could be wrong but is thee not a lot more regulations etc for new members to adopt.
We would have to go to the euro for a start.

The Dutch want their bite at a Euro exit now as well.
How will the EU regroup to fill the cash void the UK will leave.

Yep adopting the euro and then European Central Bank over rule is mandatory, you raise an interesting point re UK cash hole, could be filled by tarrif charges / increased membership fees and remember other countries are lining up to get in. Heres a point for you, think about it the other way, who will plug the EU infrastructure investment projects in UK ( usually in rural areas )...a right wing tory government.....nah nah ! Look at Cornwall The county has received £1bn of aid over the past 15 years with more than £400m in the pipeline until 2020 because of its relatively weak economy.Cornwall Council leader John Pollard said he wanted "investment equal to that provided by the EU programme".....and they voted to leave !!!!!!

[rob murray]

[QUOTE=Alrock;1149673]Probably will have to do a bit of tinkering around the edges & as for the Euro, that would probably be a price worth paying. Besides, will we really want to

Its the euro thats causing all hell all over EU, and like it or not you have to adopt sine die no questions. The pound given underlying strenghts of UK economy is fine but its off the agenda As for tinkering around the edges I really wish this was true but thats not what the official EU process states, I've been involved in EU projects and they are a bureaucratic nightmare to manage, so Id imagine the entry process / disentangling ourselves from UK fulfilling entry criteria would be a long slow tortous process, the EU has fixed time and its everyday work going on, its not as if theyd put a "lets get scotland in quick department together, your dealing with turning a huge oil tanker here, this is a direct quote from thedocument : the huge volume of EU rules and regulations each candidate country must adopt as national law, negotiations take time to complete...says it all

[squidge]

Which bit of remaining in the EU is becoming a new member?

Whatever the case, this time the discussions will take place between Scotland and the EU, other countries leaders directly rather than through WM. This means that unlike the Indyref we are likely to get answers to some of these questions. If you remember last time WM refused to ask and Scotland was unable to do so: This is a different situation.

[rob murray]

Which bit of remaining in the EU is becoming a new member?

Whatever the case, this time the discussions will take place between Scotland and the EU, other countries leaders directly rather than through WM. This means that unlike the Indyref we are likely to get answers to some of these questions. If you remember last time WM refused to ask and Scotland was unable to do so: This is a different situation.

Yes it is a different situation, assuming an indy scotland, we go direct through the process ourselves, lets not rake over the past its gone, what questions do you mean, the application criteria is clearly spelled out in the Copenhagen agreement /application process. All I am saying is, assuming we are indy, the process is lengthy and thats quoting from source docs.

[squidge]

Yes it is a different situation, assuming an indy scotland, we go direct through the process ourselves, lets not rake over the past its gone, what questions do you mean, the application criteria is clearly spelled out in the Copenhagen agreement /application process. All I am saying is, assuming we are indy, the process is lengthy and thats quoting from source docs.

You Are assuming that we are applying from OUTSIDE the EU. It may be that we can get the referendum done before the rest of the U.K. Leaves, depending on how long it is until they trigger Article 50.

I am interested to see the information that comes back from the EU on whether they will try to keep us come what may or whether they will make Scotland apply from outside. One of the reasons for saying we would have to apply from outside the EU during the last Indyref was that the UK would have a veto and that the EU would not want to piss off the rest of the U.K. That is not going to be the case this time. It's fascinating.

[rob murray]

You Are assuming that we are applying from OUTSIDE the EU. It may be that we can get the referendum done before the rest of the U.K. Leaves, depending on how long it is until they trigger Article 50.

I am interested to see the information that comes back from the EU on whether they will try to keep us come what may or whether they will make Scotland apply from outside. One of the reasons for saying we would have to apply from outside the EU during the last Indyref was that the UK would have a veto and that the EU would not want to piss off the rest of the U.K. That is not going to be the case this time. It's fascinating.

EU seem to be hard on rUK handing in section 50 asap to minimise uncertainties. then experts predict at least 4 years to get out, so that gives the time to get indy ref done but we would surely be a new state and treated that way, anyway we have to disentangle ourselves from rUK and rUK EU laws which would legally surely apply to the new state of Scotland as an independant country ? Of course it would be good if EU accepted us as is, and shortened a complex process but I doubt it. As I said whats past is past no point in rakin it up, we are now through the looking glass and have to deal with new complex unknowns. Come Saturday SNP position on how they will play this one will be clearer

[squidge]

I hope so but I believe it's 2 years from the Article 50 being invoked unless there is a unanimous vote to extend that. I'm not sure we will get that.

[rob murray]

I hope so but I believe it's 2 years from the Article 50 being invoked unless there is a unanimous vote to extend that. I'm not sure we will get that.

Apparently Herr Merkel is calming the german and euro hawks, adopting a pragmatic approach in tone and language.".in her first public address since the nation backed a Leave vote, the German chancellor called for Brussels to maintain "close future relations" with Britain. SHe says its not in EU interesst to alienate rUK so hints of accomodating rUK well we will see.