Fluctuating Unpredictable Output and Standby Capacity
The output of some renewable technologies, such as wind, wave, solar and even some CHP, is naturally subject to fluctuation and, for some renewable technologies, unpredictability relative to the more traditional generation technologies. Based on recent analyses of the incidence and variation of wind speed, the expected intermittency of the national wind portfolio would not appear to pose a technical ceiling on the amount of wind generation that may be accommodated and adequately managed. However, increasing levels of such renewable generation on the system would increase the costs of balancing the system and managing system frequency.
It is a property of the interconnected transmission system that individual and local independent fluctuations in output are diversified and averaged out across the system. Moreover, the interconnected system permits frequency response and reserves to be carried on the most cost effective generation or demand side service provider at any particular time. These properties of the transmission network permit intermittent/variable generation to be used with lower standby and frequency control costs than would otherwise be the case.
The proportion of conventional generation needed to be retained in the electricity market, given the variable and unpredictable nature of some renewable technologies such as wind, such that current levels of security of supply are not eroded is the subject of the published paper: “A shift to wind is not unfeasible”, by Dale, Milborrow, Slark & Strbac, Power UK Issue 109, March 2003.
For example, for 8GW of wind, around 3GW of conventional capacity (equivalent to some 37% of the wind capacity) can be retired without any increased probability that load reductions would be required due to generation shortages on cold days. However, as the amount of wind increases, the proportion of conventional capacity that can be displaced without eroding the level of security reduces. For example, for 25GW of wind only 5GW (i.e. 20% of the wind capacity) of conventional capacity can be retired. This implies that, for larger wind penetrations, the wind capacity that can be taken as firm is not proportional to the expected wind energy production. It follows that the electricity market will need to maintain in service a larger proportion of conventional generation capacity despite reduced load factors. Such plant is often referred to as “standby plant”.
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