Reply With QuoteGreat news. I just hope they’re not diverting the cruise ship to Scrabster!
Banned
Seems we can put the pitchforks and water cannon away. The cruise company have announced they are cancelling. Less than 1 hour after Orkney Islands Council put out a statement saying that they had not given any consideration whatsoever to closing ports to cruise liners. Doughballs.
.Orger
Great news. I just hope they’re not diverting the cruise ship to Scrabster!
Banned
Nope, left Shetland, heading back to Tilbury to disembark all the afflicted there.
.Orger
FYI.......82 Countries with over 1Billion souls.......Yes, with One Billion people have not reported anyone afflicted......
Remember that in the Analysis!
.Orger
There is no evidence that anyone on that cruise ship was infected orkneycadian. Iceland has cases, so does the UK and people from the UK are going all over as per usual on the regular ferries and disembarking in Orkney. Your island relies heavily on tourism and are you planning to turn everyone away for months to come?
Banned
Yes, our island(s) relies(y) heavily on tourism. But real tourism, not the kind the council have manufactured. Cruise liner passengers benefit very few, apart from Marine Services, an arms length company owned by the council. But they claim that money raised within Marine Services is ringfenced, and cannot be spent elsewhere. So they can afford new pilot boats (built in Spain) and tugs (built in Turkey), but cannot spend it on new ferries for the public to use. Sure, there are a small number of locals that benefit - Bus operators, tour guides and the likes. But the vast majority see no benefit whatsoever, and in fact only see disruption. Local shops sell very little to them - The odd trinket perhaps - Local cafes and restaurants don't do well from them - The passengers eat all they can at breakfast on the ship and fill their pockets with fruit and croissants to see them through the day, then go back aboard at night for their all inclusive banquets. Local cafe owners complain that they come into their premises, buy 1 small coffee, then sit for 3 hours hogging the tables and wifi whilst they upload all their holiday selfies. People who sell postcards complain that the cruise liner passengers take post cards out of racks, photograph them, then put them back in the wrong place.
Meanwhile, over at the "tourist attractions" (5000 year old bits of stone covered in moss....), the real tourists, the ones that come here for a week or 2, spend their money locally on accommodation, restaurants, etc, are not allowed in, as the sites have been block booked for the cruise passengers. They then go home and tell their friends not to bother to come to Orkney - Its overrun with cruise passengers who squeezed them out of everywhere.
There is for sure rejoicing going on all over Orkney this morning, that the scourge of the cruise liners has at least been delayed till the 4th of April, when the next one is due. That's the same one that was due today, so that too may be cancelled.
We see the same issues here as Venice and Dubrovnik, albeit on a smaller scale. Many folk say that Orkney is now "ruined" as a holiday destination, and thats before the first case of coronavirus. Indeed, there may be no evidence that anyone was infected on the Magellan, but with people being infections for 5 days before the symptoms show, how would we know? And now that the UK has effectively abolished testing, unless you are already hospitalised, then the Medical Declarations that the ships are supposed to present mean nothing. And yes, the ferries and planes are still running as normal, at the moment. Should we suspend them for all but freight? Possibly. But there, there is a much greater balancing act between bio security and economic disruption. Much more than will ever be the case with the cruise passengers spending, we understand, less than £10 a head on their shore visits.
.Orger
Yeah 4 weeks ago Italy had 3 cases, now it according to Worldstats it has 2,547 new cases and 250 new deaths. Highest number of deaths per day in the world ever (including China at its peak) has been reported in Italy in each of the last four days.Originally Posted by aqua
Newt Gingrich living in Italy writes for Foxnews:
The coronavirus is out of control of in Northern Italy. As of 6 pm local / 1 pm EST on March 10, there were 15,113 total cases in Italy, with 12,839 active cases, 1,016 deaths, and 1,258 recoveries. There are 162 total cases here in Rome.
The hardest-hit region around Milan has had to improvise as its health system has been deeply stressed by the sheer number of patients. In Milan and Brescia, field hospitals have been set up in the fairgrounds as the local hospitals have been drowned in patients.
Because the demand for respirators and intensive care has been beyond any previous planning, doctors have been forced into the kind of triage thinking developed for intense battlefield casualty situations. There are reports that emergency room doctors are allotting respirators to those with higher life expectancy due to the limited equipment in the hardest-hit areas of the province. If you are older or have other illnesses, you may simply not be eligible for treatment.
.Orger
The UK has not abolished testing- where did you get that from?
.Orger
At this stage there are still many positives.
Sorry link requires subscription that I don't have.
Coronavirus: Scots scientist says vaccine trials set for next month
The Scottish scientist responsible for developing a global vaccine to combat the deadly coronavirus has said it will be available for clinical trials on humans next month.
.Orger
It refers to the situation in Italy and the link to the article is there.
Banned
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavi...for-the-public
What to do if you have symptoms
Stay at home for 7 days if you have either:
- a high temperature
- a new continuous cough
This will help to protect others in your community while you are infectious.
Do not go to a GP surgery, pharmacy or hospital.
You do not need to contact NHS 111 to tell them you’re staying at home.
We will not be testing people who are self-isolating with mild symptoms.
Banned
I reckon we are now entering a period where the stats will start to get a bit less relevant, especially for the UK. If the only folk being tested are those that have been hospitalised, because their symptoms have deteriorated whilst self isolating as per the guidance, then what was previously "confirmed cases" will become the tip of the iceberg, with all the folk that stay at home and have mild symptoms, being totally off the radar. I expect we will have much more of "estimated cases" if they are even mentioned at all.
This will likely make the mortality rate look worse than it is. At present, deaths divided by total cases with an outcome is around 7%. I guess the deaths will always be reported, but all the cases where folk recover at home, and never even do as much as call 111 will go unrecorded. This will create an artificially high mortality rate on sites like Worldometers. But possibly, enough data has passed through there to see that the mortality rate is stubbornly hanging around the 6 or 7% mark.
Banned
I also suspect we may be entereing a phase of massively blocked drains and sewers.....
So this guy with the rucksack couldn't get bog roll, so has stocked up on "Plenty" kitchen roll. Will do the job he intends it for, but will not break down when wet, and will do a grand job of blocking the drains!
.Orger
Not mine
.Orger
I can see why 'isolated' comunities don't want visitors.
I'm booked for the IOM TT in June, organisers say it will still go ahead come what may, but locals don't want it to happen, health services could not cope, so they have started a petition to ban this years event. It will cost me a fair bit if cancelled, but I fully understand why locals may not welcome us.
https://www.three.fm/news/isle-of-ma...pkgU1YOupVmrtk
.Orger
People who understand data are at last making significant noises that are being covered in the media:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51892402
Here are a few relevant links in one place.
The letter from practising scientists is here:
http://maths.qmul.ac.uk/~vnicosia/UK...s_measures.pdf
The detailed analysis of the data they reference is here:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-f4d3d9cd99ca
It gives a very detailed analysis of the growth and spread of the virus, plus an analysis of why the death rate is so different at different times and in different countries.
The open letter from Italian scientists is here:
https://left.it/2020/03/13/covid_19-...fic-community/
I’m going to email local politicians (MP and MSP probably) to ‘demand’ more urgent action. I urge everyone who reads these reports and agrees with the conclusions to do the same.
.Orger
To summarise the conclusions referred to above:
Unless the government(s) force(s) more ‘social distancing’ NOW, the country’s hospitals will be overwhelmed in a week or so, and the death rate could be four times higher than it would be if they took action now.
Not only would the death rate be much lower, the total number of deaths in a given period would be reduced much further because far fewer people would have the virus in the first place!
That’s a lot of lives saved!
There may not be any cases in Caithness yet, but there surely will be soon.
Last edited by aqua; 15-Mar-20 at 11:53.
Banned
Alas, the time for action was long ago. Borders should have been closed months ago. But no, its "Think of the economic impact - An little Johnny really wants to go on the school trip to Italy".
Instead, we now have the economic impact, little Johnny's school trip cancelled, and lots of old folk pegging out in hospitals that are rapidly overloading. For years, people have warned of the impact of porous borders, and this is the outcome. Old folk being told they may have to stay at home, no visitors for 4 months. And that's just to avoid the threat of death. Freedom of movement huh?
Banned
I see that China are now 17th in the league table of "cases per million of a population" and about to drop into 18th place when the Netherlands shortly overtake them. UK still in 28th place, but no doubt will pass China in the near future.I also see that China are very close to having less total cases than "the rest of the world". All according to published statistics, which we know are likely to drift more and more in the future as countries become less able to quantify their outbreaks.
.Orger
China now worried about catching it back from the West.
Nice to see them donating equipment, supplies to Italy too.
It's sad that the likely reliable indicator will be the mortality rate. Saw this bit on the BBC news today, linked from YahooROME (Reuters) - A planeload of medical supplies, including masks and respirators, has arrived in Italy from China to help it deal with its growing coronavirus crisis.
A single page of obituaries is seen with photos of the deceased followed by another half a page.
He then opens Friday’s edition of the same newspaper.
Mr Locatelli counts 10 pages, one by one, of obituaries.
Posting Permissions
Bookmarks