Coronavirus

[orkneycadian]

So had anyone in Caithness got it yet or thinks that they have got it?

I thought I might have got it last week, after eating curried bat at the Chinese. Had a terrible cough after it, and felt gey wabbit. As it turned, out, it was vindaloo strength, which went for my throat, and I misread the menu. It was cat, not bat! Doh!

[Corky Smeek]

The following is a quote from Paul Kavanagh's latest blog post.

"....new cases are appearing elsewhere in the UK and all across Europe. Yet today the British Government announced that it’s quitting the EU’s pandemic warning system. According to reports, the Department of Health in England wanted to remain a part of the EU’s Early Warning and Response System, but it was vetoed by Number 10. The EWRS is an online platform which allows health authorities across the EU to share information about serious cross-border health threats, but Number 10 has ruled that the UK won’t be a part of it because it’s fixated on a “clean break” from the EU.

Isn't it nice to know that Boris and Dominic are at the helm; looking after us at a time of crisis and not letting political dogma get in the way of saving lives? As Kavanagh goes on to say, it is highly likely that the Health Ministers in the devolved parliaments were advised of this decision rather than being consulted on it. They are playing with lives.

[orkneycadian]

Looks like it won't be so long before the Chinese containment effort looks magnificent, whilst the rest of the world's efforts look farcical. China builds 2500 beds worth of hospitals in a week, Scotland comes up with "drive in testing". China have it under control, whilst it runs rampant elsewhere.

The growth rate of cases outside China is deeply concerning. For those that say "it's just 40 odd cases out of 65 million" they should look at the charts of cases outside of China. Even on a logarithmic scale, that line is curling upwards.

[Corky Smeek]

I knew the SNP were to blame for Coronavirus. It's high time Nicola resigned and Scotland just capitulated and let others decide how best we should be looked after.

[Neil Howie]

they should look at the charts of cases outside of China. Even on a logarithmic scale, that line is curling upwards.

Exactly - Graph of coronavirus outside of China

Keeping a close eye on things as extremely neurotic about health at the best of times,

[Alrock]

Unfortunately the counter is still going up...

[orkneycadian]

I'm afraid coronavirus will not solve the population emergency. Even if some of the predictions played out, and 80 million people died of it, (who weren't ready to die of something else anyway) then that would simply cancel out 1 year of population growth.

[orkneycadian]

Keeping a close eye on things as extremely neurotic about health at the best of times,

No neuroticism here. But I recognise and understand an exponential curve when I see one. I understand a logarithmic scale on a graph too. It's not about the absolute numbers at this second in time. It's all about the rate of change.

[Corky Smeek]

The view from Sweden

https://twitter.com/TheRosie/status/1234812467898916864

[orkneycadian]

Orkney Islands Council still seem to be intent on having 150 deliveries of coronavirus made to Orkney this year aboard cruise liners. Whilst the rest of the worlds ports are turning them away.

[orkneycadian]

The goverments (I use the plurality) are having a bit of a laugh - They say we are still in the "contain" phase, before moving to the "delay" phase. What of course they mean is that they have completely failed to contain it, so are now having to think of plan B, despite having the perfect opportunity to contain it a month or 2 ago. But no, letting folk go on skiing trip was far more important that protecting our weak and vulnerable citizens.

China has been a shining example of containment, and thats reflected in the first peak and decline of cases - OK, a few folk had to get manhandled out of their flats and into boxes on the backs of pickups to be carted away for isolation - But it worked. Now all the liberal countries are finding that letting folk get on with life as normal results in a spread like wildfire. At the end of all this, China will be well down the table of cases and deaths, and the liberal states will be the ones who lose the most amount of citizens.

So, delay phase next - Yup, that wont work well - What comes next? The mass cremation and burial stage?

[Fulmar]

Oh, you are such a barrel of laughs Orkneycadian. The number of cases here always was going to rise but so far, so good and the system for self isolation is in place and seems sensible to me.
If you want to go and live in a totalitarian state, you go right ahead. (The Uyghur people no doubt will soon be able tell you exactly how it is and how the system works).
No sign of panic buying yet in Wick anyway.

[orkneycadian]

The exponential rise in cases would seem to suggest otherwise.....

[orkneycadian]

What will be interesting, is to see how the rest of the world copes with the 2nd rise;


The first rise and fall above is obviously China, complete with the anomaly due to the way cases were reported. The second rise is largely the rest of the world aside from China, with several countries, notably Iran, South Korea and possibly Italy, each managing to conjure up more new daily cases than China. If all this "containment" is working, then that second rise should peak and fall, just like it did when the majority of cases were in China.

[mi16]

Coronavirus isolation hotel collapses in China trapping many.
It never Rains but pours eh.
If it wasn’t for bad luck they would have none at all

[Neil Howie]

What will be interesting, is to see how the rest of the world copes with the 2nd rise;

Consider - America -

CDC issued faulty testing kits and prevented other labs from using their own tests
CDC staffers only found out about a suspected case of the coronavirus at the agency when Trump told reporters (result was negative so trip to CDC was back on!)

The American numbers for covid-19 are badly wrong

[Neil Howie]

But for some of those that recover from covid-19 it could lead to lasting damage :

The effects of Covid-19 on the human body ‘is like a combination of SARS and AIDS as it damages both the lungs and immune systems’, Peng Zhiyong told the Global Times.

"The autopsy results Liu shared inspired me a lot. Based on the results, I think the most important thing now is to take measures at an early stage of the disease to protect patients' lungs from irreversible fibrosis," Peng noted.

If irreversible damage is done, other measures, like those to prevent patients from oxygen deficit, will not be of much use, he said.

Liu's team published a paper on an autopsy they conducted in the Journal of Forensic Medicine on Tuesday.

The paper said there was apparent damage to the patient's lungs. An excess production of mucus spilled out of the alveoli, indicating COVID-19 causes an inflammation response that damages deep airways and pulmonary alveoli.

The patient, an 85-year-old man, exhibited similar pathological changes to those caused by SARS and MERS. Fibrosis in his lungs was not as serious as was seen in SARS patients, but an exudative reaction was more apparent, possibly due to the short course of his disease.

[ecb]

There are two Corona virus related petitions on the UK Government and Parliament petitions web site:

"Close Schools/Colleges down for an appropriate amount of time amidst COVID19":

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/300403


"Include self-employed in statutory sick pay during Coronavirus":

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/300336

[orkneycadian]

The schools petition no doubt signed by 99% schoolkids hoping for a holiday, whilst those that are are self employed really need to get a grip and understand what self employment means. As their own employer, they will have course made provision for such events. Either that, or they have spent the last while bragging about how cushy it is being your own boss, working when you like, etc. Just like all the gig economy snowflakes did when they though that they had landed their dream job and could work when they fancied, then discovered there were in fact downsides....

[orkneycadian]

Are there any handy mnemonics, songs to sing, like the 20 second handwashing one, that I can use to remind myself what folk keep saying. "Its less infections than a cold, it'll nevere come to anything, put it in perspective......"


Because try as I might, I cannot find any evidence of seasonal flu increasing its number of cases like the above. So in perspective, the growth factor of the rate of increase of coronavirus cases is squillions of times higher than the rate of seasonal flu cases. Ah, that's what they mean by putting it in perspective?