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Thread: Coronavirus

  1. #341

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    An extract from "Wee Ginger Dug", Paul Kavanagh's blog - dated 26 June 2020.

    It concerns the fact that 331 Tory MPs voted against given NHS and Care Staff weekly Covid19 tests. I was going to try to paraphrase what Paul said but he says it so succinctly it's easier just to quote him.

    ".....what they’ve all got in common is that every single one of this sorry shower of British nationalist apologists voted against a motion in the Commons which would have ensured that all NHS workers and care staff received weekly tests for coronavirus. What they’ve got in common is that in 2017 every single one of them voted against a pay rise for nurses. And what they also have in common is that all of them repeat the platitudes about clapping for NHS workers because they’ll make a show of supporting key workers, but won’t follow through with anything that actually has any substance to it. Yeah, this doesn’t reflect well upon them either, but then they’re Tory MPs so what were you expecting. Being a git is very much on brand for this lot. They don’t care. They didn’t care. They never cared. This is what you get when you vote Tory."

  2. #342

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    A very heart warming story on BBC Scotland page about the Scottish pilot who has survived Covid in South Vietnam and become something of a celebrity there at the same time, as a result. South Vietnam has done amazingly well with this virus.

  3. #343

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    One of the hardest bits of data to find in all this carry on is the number of people, particularly in the UK, who have died due to coronavirus, and not just with coronavirus.

    My Dad died some years ago with a replacement hip. That's not what was the finish of him, but it's totally true to say he died with a replacement hip.

    I have read a number of sources that say the number of people who have died in the UK due to coronavirus is around 2000, and the number under age 60 it's around 600.

    But it's very hard to find definitive data on this. All some folk want to count is where coronavirus is mentioned on the death certificate. I am sure the word Sex is mentioned on every death certificate, but is unlikely to be, a few cases excepted, the real cause of a persons demise.

    Any reliable source links much appreciated.

  4. #344
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Posts
    1,692

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    Quote Originally Posted by orkneycadian View Post
    ...But it's very hard to find definitive data on this...
    Hmmm... I wonder why?

    Quote Originally Posted by orkneycadian View Post
    ...Any reliable source links much appreciated.
    I guess you looked & couldn't find one... Once again, I wonder why?
    “We're trapped in the belly of this horrible machine....
    And the machine is bleeding to death."


  5. #345

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    Quote Originally Posted by Alrock View Post
    Hmmm... I wonder why?
    Probably to help keep us on our toes with mental arithmetic.

    So, the present number of confirmed cases in the UK is 290,133 (source = worldometers)

    Back in May, an Orkney doctor (Dr Drew) went on the Jeremy Vine show and stated that in his opinion, the number of symptomatic cases in Orkney was more likely 200 to 300 and not the 7 that was being recorded at the time.

    So, let's see, 290,133 x (250 / 7) = 10,362,000 people in the UK who have exhibited symptoms, whether diagnosed in a clinical setting, or self diagnosed at home.

    85% of people have no symptoms. That figure came out of China very early on, and had been affirmed by data from the Herefordshire farm where just a few of the 73 who tested positive had any symptoms.

    So, 10,362,000 / 0.15 = 69,079,000 of us have had it in some form or another.

    Now, what's the official UK population? Ah yes, that's right, 67.9 million, though the supermarkets reckon it's closer to 80 or 90 million based on their data mining.

    So, that explains why cases are flattening off. We have almost all had it. 85% of us didn't notice, 10,362,000 of us noticed, 290,133 of those that noticed had a clinical test, 40 odd thousand folk died of the usual kinds of things folk die of, but were posthumously found to have the virus in their system (just like the rest of us), about 2000 of those 40 odd thousand died solely of coronavirus, and about 600 of those 2000 were under 60 years of age.

    Nothing like a bit of mental arithmetic to keep things in perspective.
    Last edited by orkneycadian; 13-Jul-20 at 19:15.

  6. #346

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    Well, you have to give it to Orkneycadian; his arithmetic is absolutely mental.

  7. #347
    Join Date
    Jul 2001
    Location
    by the sea
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    2,416

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    When the rule about wearing masks in shops came in I wondered about the shop assistants and see that in England they are not required to wear them. Don't know what the rule is in Scotland as I haven't been shopping since it started. Check-out staff are behind screens so that's OK. Customers don't have to wear them for long but if assistants had to wear them I can see this being a problem. On the other hand does it make sense for them not to when they are around customers? Or are they all regularly tested - somehow doubt it.
    The early bird may get the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese.


  8. #348

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    One aspect my arithmetic struggles to deal with is that here were are, in the middle of an extremely deadly pandemic, with a virus so debilitating that 85% of people need to get tested to even know they have it.

    And then, the governments Office for National Statistics go and publish some data that shows that for the 3rd week running, the number of deaths, in this very very deadly pandemic is lower than the average for this time of year;

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...nglandandwales

    I am trying to work out a "deadliness index" for this virus, but I keep getting a negative number. Can any mathematicians on 'e Org help me out please?

  9. #349

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    Plenty of people in the States have thought the same way as you do and sadly, look at them now. I watched an interview with one of them who had believed that the virus was fake news and just a hoax. He caught it, became rapidly severely ill, spent 2 weeks on a ventilator and is now, back home, struggling to get back to any semblance of health and with considerable post-viral disability. He was in his 40s. Have you seen the footage from Brazil with all the acres of new graves rapidly filling up?
    In Caithness in the shops that I have been in at least, the store staff are now wearing masks.

  10. #350
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Location
    Watten area
    Posts
    231

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    Covid-19 is deadly, while the overall death rate per infected may be around 1-2% this is actually meaningless. For people who are older and have underlying health issues such as diabetes and high blood pressure the death rate is far higher.

    The other issue is that other long term health issues are now being reported worldwide for people who have been infected, even for people that have not been very ill with the disease. This includes damage to the brain, heart and lungs. Not trying to scare anyone however I would suggest that nobody should underestimate the health issues with this virus.

  11. #351

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    Pretty much the point I was trying to make, richardj.

    As you say, for older folk, diabetics and those with underlying health conditions, there is greater risk. But an awful lot of emphasis is placed on the number of people who have died with coronavirus, and not those who have died of coronavirus. Remember, right back at the beginning of this, when reporting number of deaths, the media meticulously added "all had underlying health conditions".

    Now we are seeing that, whilst for the last few months, total deaths was higher than the 5 year average for the time of year, for the last 3 weeks, total deaths is under that average. That alone is rather bizarre whilst we are in the middle of a deadly pandemic. What will be rather telling us to look at that figure over the whole of 2020. Will we see the first 6 months being above the average followed by the last 6 months being as equally below the average? Only time will tell.

    My play on the mental arithmetic highlights what could actually be very possible. Most recently, at the farm in Herefordshire, most of the 73 who tested positive felt absolutely fine, and were stunned to have returned a positive result. How many more of us would have returned the same result had we been tested?

  12. #352
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Posts
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    Deaths involvingcoronavirus (COVID-19) in Scotland Week28 (06 to 12July2020) at:

    https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files/...rt-week-28.pdf


    On page 26 "COVID-19 deaths at a small area levelA breakdown of deaths involving COVID by intermediate zone is available in table S8 of the additional analysis spreadsheet. Intermediate zones are a statistical geography that sit between datazones and local authorities. There are 1,279 intermediate zones covering the whole of Scotland and their populations ranges between 2,500 and 6,000."

    https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files/...s-week-28.xlsx

    Table S8 Numbers and crude rates of deaths involving COVID-19, by Intermediate Zone, between 1st March 2020 and 30th June 2020

    Figures relating to Caithness extracted and put on following graphic:

    Click image for larger version. 

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  13. #353

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    They can't seem to be able to allow themselves to say "Deaths caused by Coronavirus" can they? Always had to be "Deaths Involving Coronavirus" or "Where Covid was mentioned in the death certificate"

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