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Thread: Votes as a % of total electorate, vs votes as a % of all votes cast

  1. #1
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    Default Votes as a % of total electorate, vs votes as a % of all votes cast

    The "What is the point of Labour?" thread is wandering off-topic but I wanted to respond to the last two posts, by Orkneycadian and Corky, which look at the percentage of votes cast based on the whole electorate, which is misleading and disingenuous. Corky says only 37% of voters voted to Leave the EU.

    I haven't done the arithmetic to check the 37%, but I do have this figure - 12,948,018 people DIDN'T vote in the Brexit referendum. I accept that some of those weren't able to - they were expats living full time abroad and so (rightly) excluded, and I'm sure there are other exclusions as well, but nonetheless. Any of those people now regretting their bone idleness, apathy and lack of interest would attract nothing but scorn (and pitying laughter) if they went along to a bookie and said "I wish I'd bet on the 500:1 winner in the last race but I didn't because <insert whine of choice here>. But I would have done. So here's my 5 stake, can I have my winnings, please?"

    17,410,742 voted to Leave. 16,141,241 voted to Remain. So 52% of those who could be bothered to vote, versus 48% of those who could be bothered to vote. Those who couldn't be bothered simply excluded themselves from being part of the next move. That's the way it works here. Same logic for the Indy 1 referendum. Don't vote? No say!

    I'm sure there are countries other than Australia who require all registered voters to vote in General Elections (and maybe referenda?) BY LAW. Seems like an unnecessary piece of heavy-handed authoritarianism to me, even if the ballot includes a "none of the above" category (something I'd like to see introduced here!). Why shouldn't a citizen have the right to abstain / choose not to vote?

    As for "national suicide", well, that's another argument. It's mystery to me why many Scots are so vehemently opposed to remaining in Union with the rUK, and yet so eager to join part of the most dead-end, repressive and undemocratic superUnion whose decision makers cannot be voted out, and whose currency system has repressed economic growth for over a decade, causing massive youth unemployment in the process. Scotland will just be absorbed into the morass of repressive EU laws and trade restrictions, and lose the ability to decline to accept what the EU asks of them - stand by to be required to part-fund and contribute to the EU Army, when it comes along (which it's doing), regardless of the views of the Scottish leadership that Faslane is toast. Together, I imagine, with all the support jobs and local businesses in that remote area making a living because of the existence of the place!

    Oh well. It'll be what it'll be. The trump card that rUK can play is the trade deficit we run with Europe; 54 billion a year. Germany is going into recession right now as payback for its mercantilist economic policies screwing southern Europe for its own gain, and so the ability of the UK to do trade deals elsewhere would be feared and keenly watched by the Kommissars in Brussels / Strasbourg and Bonn. Not to mention 770,000 auto workers building Mercs, BMWs, Porsches, Audis and VWs. The UK is the world's biggest market for Mercedes cars; our voice will count. Personally, I hope for for a completely clean break Brexit. The problem I think exists is that I'm not sure about Johnson's will or ability to deliver it.
    Last edited by j4bberw0ck; 01-Dec-19 at 10:05. Reason: moderation in all things...........


  2. #2

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    Some interesting points, most of which I don't agree with.

    As for the 37% figure I used, the totals you provided confirm it:- add all three of your categories together and you get a total electorate of 46,555,001. The leave vote represents 37% of that figure.

    That aside, I'm sure you realise that I was merely calling out the willfull deceit of another correspondent and to show that you must treat all statistics with a great deal of care.

    On the matter of compulsory voting I am not sure I follow the logic of your argument. On the one hand you seem to be saying people who don't vote are bone idle and because they don't vote should have no say. Yet on the other you are demanding the right to abstain / not to vote. There seems to me to be a fundamental contradiction there. Surely you cannot, on the one hand, condem people for not voting yet at the same time demand that they have the right to do so. Are you, in effect, demanding the right for people to be bone idle? It seems so. Perhaps I am missing something in your argument. I realise both standpoints are not mutually exclusive but to hold both so vehemently seems a bit inconsistent.

    I am also concerned that you have chosen not to comment on the many and varied reasons why people chose not to vote. You don't have to look very far to discover reasons why great swathes of the population feel disenfranchised. People all over these islands have been marginalised to the extent that they feel their voice doesn't count. No-one listens to them anyway, so why vote? Another reason for people not voting is that trust in politicians is at an all time low. Many take the view that politicians lie to get into power and lie to stay there once elected. Promises are never kept so why take part in the charade?

    I do see many merits in compulsory voting. Too many people suffered (and even died) to ensure the universal adult suffrage we now enjoy. It seems to me a betrayal of their efforts not to vote. Even if you just spoil your ballot paper or choose the "none of the above" option, if available, that means you have partaken. Democracy is fragile and we must do all we can to protect it.

    On the matter of membership of political unions the issue is simple for me. For all its many faults the EU is much more a union of equals than the UK has ever been or will be. Look at the Brexit negotiations. Tiny countries like Malta and Cyprus had more of a say over Scotland's future than we did. They had a veto to use if they didn't like the direction of the negotiations. All Scotland got was being ignored by a Westminster government who paid no heed whatsoever to the overwhelming wishes of the Scottish electorate. Scotland had/has no veto. We just had to fall in line and do what we were told. Ireland was protected and supported by the EU during the negotiations. Not Scotland though - back in your box and shut up. Scotland is supposed to be an equal and valued member of the UK. Aye, right!

    You say you support a "clean break Brexit", By that I assume you mean a "no deal Brexit". Even if you are right (which I don't think you are) and the UK's ability to do trade deals would be feared it could take years, perhaps decades, to put in place. In the intervening period we will be subject to huge disruption to our usual trading arrangements not least of which will be tariffs and the likelihood of shortages in essential supplies. Supply chains have been carefully established and adapted over the period of our EU membership. They cannot be replaced with new working arrangements at 00.01 hours on 1 February without there being huge logistical problems. Not being able to buy a German car will be the least of our problems. (Oh, and as for the UK being the world's biggest market for Mercedes; is that as a percentage of the total number of Mercedes sold worldwide; absolute number of cars imported to the UK compared to other countries; or is it the absolute total value of sales to the UK or just the percentage? You see the problems with stat's.).

    Finally, it looks like you may be a Jim Hacker fan. At least that is something we can agree on.

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    Just as an afterthought, please would you explain why so many people feel the EU does not work as a Union for them and demand that we leave, yet so many of the same people are fighting to deny Scotland the right to leave a Union that does not work for it.

    I have never been able to get my head round that.

  4. #4

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    Quote Originally Posted by j4bberw0ck View Post
    The "What is the point of Labour?" thread is wandering off-topic but I wanted to respond to the last two posts, by Orkneycadian and Corky,
    Thanks to the Ignore List, I only see one of the above, which is something of a relief. But based on previous observations, I can hazard a guess at what the other one alludes to.

    Quote Originally Posted by j4bberw0ck View Post
    which look at the percentage of votes cast based on the whole electorate, which is misleading and disingenuous. Corky says only 37% of voters voted to Leave the EU.
    Yup, thought as much......

    Let me hazard a guess that the following wasn't mentioned;

    "Just 37.8% of the Scottish Electorate voted "Yes" in the 2014 Scexit referendum"

    For those that struggle with the maths, thats 1,619,989 Yes votes out of a total electorate of 4,283,392

  5. #5

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    Quote Originally Posted by orkneycadian View Post


    Thanks to the Ignore List, I only see one of the above, which is something of a relief. But based on previous observations, I can hazard a guess at what the other one alludes to.



    Yup, thought as much......

    Let me hazard a guess that the following wasn't mentioned;

    "Just 37.8% of the Scottish Electorate voted "Yes" in the 2014 Scexit referendum"

    For those that struggle with the maths, thats 1,619,989 Yes votes out of a total electorate of 4,283,392
    Very similar figures to the EU ref result. SNP claim 'Overwhelming majority' voted to remain in EU......Political spin, turnout was pretty low at 67% so about 40% of the eligible electorate voted to Remain...not my idea of an 'Overwhelming majority'

  6. #6

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    Quote Originally Posted by Goodfellers View Post
    Very similar figures to the EU ref result. SNP claim 'Overwhelming majority' voted to remain in EU......Political spin, turnout was pretty low at 67% so about 40% of the eligible electorate voted to Remain...not my idea of an 'Overwhelming majority'
    It would be really good, if just for once, the Unionist zoomers on this site would read posts within the context they were written. Just for their benefit I will state once more, that my point was to illustrate how statistics can be used/mis-used. Here is my post from that thread which started this debate.

    "I'm fairly sure we will never be given a list of names. The intention behind the post was to deceive readers by presenting percentage values whilst ignoring absolute values.

    There are 59 Scottish constituencies. If we do the calculations based on that then we discover that 1/59x100 = 1.69%, i.e 1 SNP candidate has had party support removed. In this example the percentage is 1.69 (or 1.7 if rounded up) and the absolute value is 1.

    There are 650 UK contituencies. Doing a similar calculation shows 1/650x100 = 0.15, i.e 1 Labour Party candidate has had support withdrawn.

    So, in absolute terms there is no difference between Labour and the SNP. Both have removed 1 candidate each.

    So we have not been lied to in the strictest definition of the word but there has been a quite willful attempt to deceive and smear. This is all the more surprising when one considers how many Scottish Tories have had support removed for making islamophobic comments. It currently numbers 2 (in absolute terms).

    I'm sure an explanation for this deception will be offered shortly."

  7. #7

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    I think this video illustrates perfectly my earlier point about people feeling marginalised and not sure who to vote for or even if there's any point in them voting.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/electi...s-want-to-vote

  8. #8

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    If you watched the above video and feel you would like to something to help then a crowdfunding page has been set up.

    https://t.co/E7XjagJOOk

    Life in Tory Britain, eh? Imagine having just 14p to last you for a couple of weeks.

    Stand by for the avalanche of outrage from those of a gammon disposition.

  9. #9

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    One of the participants said she would vote for Boris...did you actually watch the clip?

  10. #10

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    Quote Originally Posted by Goodfellers View Post
    One of the participants said she would vote for Boris...did you actually watch the clip?
    No. I never watch or read anything I quote on here, I just rely on one of my alter egos to keep me informed. I can't remember if it was Porky, Maggie747, or Alex Salmond who told me what it was about. Mind you, it could also have been the "drama queen" or the "dear boy" or one of the other "voices" known to frequent my account.

    The fact that someone said he favoured Boris is neither here nor there. The issue is the marginalisation of people. This is 21st century Britain. Don't tell me you are proud of this state of affairs.

  11. #11

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    There has always been poverty and always will be. That's why every second advert on tv and radio is about giving 3 a month to some charity or other. If people thought very carefully before bringing children into this world, my belief is proverty would decrease significantly within a few generations....Time for you and Maggie to jump on your high horses and tell me I can't say things like that in this day and age...yawn.

  12. #12

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    In too many parts of the world, women don't have any choice about child bearing and when they are enabled to have a choice, in general, they opt to have fewer children. Anyone can find themselves in poverty and too many never have a chance or a choice.

  13. #13

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    Quote Originally Posted by Goodfellers View Post
    There has always been poverty and always will be. That's why every second advert on tv and radio is about giving 3 a month to some charity or other. If people thought very carefully before bringing children into this world, my belief is proverty would decrease significantly within a few generations....Time for you and Maggie to jump on your high horses and tell me I can't say things like that in this day and age...yawn.
    You can say what the h*ll you like. I don't mind if you want to portray yourself as a reactionary, right-wing extremist.

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