In or out of EU Poll

[Rheghead]

Hmm, I think your presuming too much, on the other hand you must/may be privy to HM thoughts to say with your surety what are her private thoughts, or just prattling on in your thoughts.

If you really think that the royals don't yearn for more power then you are seriously deluded. History has shown that the royals interfere and try to influence on dealings of state.

[Rheghead]

I see that Martin McGuinness has said that he will push for a referendum on Irish reunification in the event of Brexit.

[Rheghead]

In my opinion, the most likely consequence of Brexit would be a swift agreement to join the European Economic Area as agreed with Norway, Iceland and Lichtenstein. Under this trade agreement with the EU, UK would have access to the single market but would also have to accept the freememovement of peoples, goods and services which the xenophobic UKIP is bitterly opposed to. The UKIP's core values are stymied at every turn.

[tonkatojo]

In my opinion, the most likely consequence of Brexit would be a swift agreement to join the European Economic Area as agreed with Norway, Iceland and Lichtenstein. Under this trade agreement with the EU, UK would have access to the single market but would also have to accept the freememovement of peoples, goods and services which the xenophobic UKIP is bitterly opposed to. The UKIP's core values are stymied at every turn.

What you and the stay vote do not comprehend is the EU need our market just as much as we need theirs and preconditions would have to suit both parties/sides it would not be as you suggest their way or no way. Two days ago British commonwealth day passed and without much hurrah perhaps when we start using their markets more with out the constraints of the EU we will appreciate it more.

[theone]

In my opinion, the most likely consequence of Brexit would be a swift agreement to join the European Economic Area as agreed with Norway, Iceland and Lichtenstein. Under this trade agreement with the EU, UK would have access to the single market but would also have to accept the freememovement of peoples, goods and services which the xenophobic UKIP is bitterly opposed to. The UKIP's core values are stymied at every turn.

I think you're right on the trade agreement but wrong with the free movement. The UK is Germany's 3rd largest export market. Failure to agree a trade deal means import taxes that suddenly make VW's, Audi's and BMW's a lot less affordable than Toyota's and Nissan's.

The UK gives Germany €51 BILLION per year more trade than comes the other way.

Failure to agree a trade deal on terms that are acceptable the UK (i.e. still having closed borders) will hurt Germany more than it will hurt us. It's a similar story with France.

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigu...ublicationFile

[bekisman]

Well given it a lot of thought; Head v Heart and I'm an 'Outer'. A lot of burble going on about following the Norwegian model or the Swiss model.. Considering that the GDP of Switzerland is $685 billion and that Norway's GDP is $512billion it's comforting to see that good ole UK trumps them all with a massive $2.67TRILLION. In reality we don't need the EU in it's present state, would have been nice to stay in IF it had been 'reformed' and had reverted simply to a collection of trading nations, but it's not..
I heard someone twittering on about not having those from eastern EU coming to cut the cauliflowers, as 'free-movement of peoples' eh? easy, they just have to apply for a visa/permission and they come in - like they did way before the EU - we control our borders who comes, and who does not.. all this nonsense about Canada taking 7 years to negotiate trade with the EU, let's not forget that's from a standing start - we've been with the EU trading for decades.
There is, under EU law a period of TWO YEARS to possibly renegotiate.. and as theone above says Germany ain't going to say they are not going to play anymore.. the PANIC is that even the Czechs say they will follow us out - the breakup of the EU on the cards I thought it was a strong organisation - what with grey-man Obama coming over to tell us to stay in will be met with typical British phelm - just like those Colonials did in Boston with our tea - don't like being controlled..

[Rheghead]

I think you're right on the trade agreement but wrong with the free movement. The UK is Germany's 3rd largest export market. Failure to agree a trade deal means import taxes that suddenly make VW's, Audi's and BMW's a lot less affordable than Toyota's and Nissan's.

The UK gives Germany €51 BILLION per year more trade than comes the other way.

Failure to agree a trade deal on terms that are acceptable the UK (i.e. still having closed borders) will hurt Germany more than it will hurt us. It's a similar story with France.

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigu...ublicationFile

As I understand things from my own research, membership of the European Economic Area comes with the condition of accepting the free movement of peoples, goods and services and the Single Market. The UK can't pick and choose what it likes if/when it enters the EEA. The crazy thing is that the UK would have to abide with all the EU regulation but it wouldn't have a further say on the nature of the regulations. So the upshot of an exit from the EU would be an increase in the democratic deficit compared to what already exists. The popular notion that we constantly get from BOJO et al is that we would be more in charge of our laws when the complete opposite could be true. You couldn't make it up.

[tonkatojo]

As I understand things from my own research, membership of the European Economic Area comes with the condition of accepting the free movement of peoples, goods and services and the Single Market. The UK can't pick and choose what it likes if/when it enters the EEA. The crazy thing is that the UK would have to abide with all the EU regulation but it wouldn't have a further say on the nature of the regulations. So the upshot of an exit from the EU would be an increase in the democratic deficit compared to what already exists. The popular notion that we constantly get from BOJO et al is that we would be more in charge of our laws when the complete opposite could be true. You couldn't make it up.

I presume by what you say every country that trades with a member of the EU must have these preconditions, does that include China USA et al ?. Regarding British Laws I am led to think the European court would no longer have jurisdiction over UK law making and the ones we no longer want would simply be repealed.

[Rheghead]

I presume by what you say every country that trades with a member of the EU must have these preconditions, does that include China USA et al ?. Regarding British Laws I am led to think the European court would no longer have jurisdiction over UK law making and the ones we no longer want would simply be repealed.

No, you have not read my posts properly and have failed to understand. Please research the European Economic Area and its conditions.

[theone]

As I understand things from my own research, membership of the European Economic Area comes with the condition of accepting the free movement of peoples, goods and services and the Single Market. The UK can't pick and choose what it likes if/when it enters the EEA. The crazy thing is that the UK would have to abide with all the EU regulation but it wouldn't have a further say on the nature of the regulations. So the upshot of an exit from the EU would be an increase in the democratic deficit compared to what already exists. The popular notion that we constantly get from BOJO et al is that we would be more in charge of our laws when the complete opposite could be true. You couldn't make it up.

I'm not suggest membership of the EEA.

I'm suggesting a trade only deal with the EU as a whole, or member countries individually.

Of course it can be done.

[tonkatojo]

No, you have not read my posts properly and have failed to understand. Please research the European Economic Area and its conditions.

But that is just the point we would not be a member of the EU so why have these preconditions, that was why I asked does China USA or others have these preconditions.

[Rheghead]

But that is just the point we would not be a member of the EU so why have these preconditions, that was why I asked does China USA or others have these preconditions.

If you want to trade with the EU then you have to abide with the regulation or you won't get to trade. I'm talking CE marking and straight bananas here. If UK is outside the European Economic Area then we would be subject to import/export tarriffs which would make our goods uncompetitive as business would have to pass on the cost to consumers.

[Rheghead]

I'm not suggest membership of the EEA.

I'm suggesting a trade only deal with the EU as a whole, or member countries individually.

Of course it can be done.

I know you are not suggesting it but in reality if Brexit happens, the UK government will clamber to enter the EEA as it offers the closest resemblance of our existing trading arrangement.

[tonkatojo]

If you want to trade with the EU then you have to abide with the regulation or you won't get to trade. I'm talking CE marking and straight bananas here. If UK is outside the European Economic Area then we would be subject to import/export tarriffs which would make our goods uncompetitive as business would have to pass on the cost to consumers.

As it has been previously pointed out trade is in their interest more as we buy more than sell to them therefore tariffs would/could be completely different or cancelled depending on what is agreed, can you imagine the uproar from EU company's that sell vast amounts to us if huge tariffs were imposed on their goods, it would not make sense to do it therefore more would want away from the EU and possibly we could even go back to the original blueprint of an economic trading block not all the extra rules and regys dictating.

[tonkatojo]

I know you are not suggesting it but in reality if Brexit happens, the UK government will clamber to enter the EEA as it offers the closest resemblance of our existing trading arrangement.

I cannot see the UK government doing it against the wishes of the electorate if they vote OUT, it would be political suicide look at the Lib Dems situation.

[Rheghead]

I cannot see the UK government doing it against the wishes of the electorate if they vote OUT, it would be political suicide look at the Lib Dems situation.

But they would be honouring the wishes of the British people. It is just that they would be just doing what is right, the next best thing, to protect British jobs to mitigate the situation.

[Rheghead]

As it has been previously pointed out trade is in their interest more as we buy more than sell to them therefore tariffs would/could be completely different or cancelled depending on what is agreed, can you imagine the uproar from EU company's that sell vast amounts to us if huge tariffs were imposed on their goods, it would not make sense to do it therefore more would want away from the EU and possibly we could even go back to the original blueprint of an economic trading block not all the extra rules and regys dictating.

You have just given me all the more reason why the UK government would quickly enter a European Economic Area agreement in the event of a Brexit. We would disenfranchise ourselves from the decision-making process in the EU. We would truly be subject to the whims of the EU without a say.

[tonkatojo]

But they would be honouring the wishes of the British people. It is just that they would be just doing what is right, the next best thing, to protect British jobs to mitigate the situation.

That is not what the out want though and would not be voting to do, can you not imagine the furore in parliament from the out MP's also as you have previously said what would be the point of making the situation worse than at present. The fear factor does not add up neither.

[Rheghead]

That is not what the out want though and would not be voting to do, can you not imagine the furore in parliament from the out MP's also as you have previously said what would be the point of making the situation worse than at present. The fear factor does not add up neither.

Exactly my thoughts even though I think I am on the opposite side of the debate to you.

[Rheghead]

One other crazy scenario on a Brexit and joining the European Economic area is the effect on UK's employment law. Currently the UK has an opt-out on the 48 hour working time directive, it has done this by getting enough allies with other EU member states to gain the opt-out. In the event of a Brexit and joining the single market through the EEA, the UK would have to implement the 48 hour working time directive in full because the opt-out alliance would crumble and the directive is a condition to access the Single Market.