Standard Life

[joxville]

It doesn't matter a jot to me where the job locations are, I'm not qualified to work in the financial sector. I can understand everyone's uncertainty over Scotland gaining indepenendence, but surely a new start has to be more exciting than more of the same old crap dished out by successive Westminster governments which only care about S.E. England? Everything is being sold to their corporate mates, things that the UK taxpayer has paid for, is that what you want to continue? Our NHS is being dismantled and sold to Richard Branson et al, how will the poor and the sick pay for much needed medicines? The list is endless of how the UK has continually been shafted, Scotland has a chance to get away from it.

[squidge]

Whenever I hear these reports I like to go straight to the actual bit of information so for all those alarmed by the "Doomed, doomed - we're all Doomed" headlines this morning over the Standard Life thing here is the actual press release

27 February 2014
Scottish referendum

On 18 September 2014 a referendum will be held to decide whether Scotland should become an independent country. In recent months some of our customers have been in touch with us to ask what impact this would have on their savings and investments with Standard Life. Our key priority is to continue serving the needs of our 4 million UK customers, wherever they reside and regardless of any constitutional change. The same applies to our customers in other parts of the world. As a business we have a long-standing policy of strict political neutrality and at no time will we advise people on how they should vote, but we have a duty and a responsibility to understand the implications of independence for our customers and other stakeholders and to take whatever action may be necessary to protect their interests. In view of the uncertainty that is likely to remain around this issue, there are steps that we can and will take now based on our own analysis. For example, we have started work to establish additional registered companies to operate outside Scotland, into which we could transfer parts of our operations if it was necessary to do so. This is a purely precautionary measure, and customers do not need to take any action. We are simply putting in place a mechanism which, in the event of constitutional change, allows us to provide continuity to customers and to continue serving them, wherever they live in the UK. Customers can find further details in our 2013 Annual Report and Accounts from our Chief Executive David Nish and Chairman Gerry Grimstone.”


Here is also the link to their actual annual report so that you can read it for yourself.

http://www.standardlife.com/media/fi...l_results.html

Enjoy

Interestingly Standard Life operates in 14 different countries

[RagnarRocks]

That's right because companies which aren't in the slightest bothered by the independence debate go to all the expense of working out and putting in place contingency plans just for the fun of it. In real terms the statement means if you don't sort out your currency, regulatory, tax and overall fiscal situation to our liking were off same no doubt some of the other financial services companies. Which is the better place to be in the modern financial world UK or Newly Independent Scotland. All this shows is the uncertainty the SNP have created in the financial services sector not good for a countries economy which ever way it goes.

[Bobinovich]

In real terms the statement means if you don't sort out your currency, regulatory, tax and overall fiscal situation to our liking were off same no doubt some of the other financial services companies.

The crux of the problem as I see it is the UK Government's unwillingness to sit down & work out an actual deal, or even a provisional deal, before the vote so that not only would businesses know what post-independence might, but voters would too!! However that would be admitting that the vote may go against what they want, so they won't do it...

[tonkatojo]

The crux of the problem as I see it is the UK Government's unwillingness to sit down & work out an actual deal, or even a provisional deal, before the vote so that not only would businesses know what post-independence might, but voters would too!! However that would be admitting that the vote may go against what they want, so they won't do it...

I thought they did answer and the answer was no to sharing the UK £, and by the looks of it they did sit down and work it out as all major party's sang from the same hymn sheet, so businesses are aware of that before the vote.

[RagnarRocks]

The crux of the problem as I see it is the UK Government's unwillingness to sit down & work out an actual deal, or even a provisional deal, before the vote so that not only would businesses know what post-independence might, but voters would too!! However that would be admitting that the vote may go against what they want, so they won't do it...

The deal is NO deal on currency seems the SNP do not understand a very simple concept.

[Bobinovich]

I thought they did answer and the answer was no to sharing the UK £, and by the looks of it they did sit down and work it out as all major party's sang from the same hymn sheet, so businesses are aware of that before the vote.

Currency union is only part of the issues RR listed, and even then yes of course they're singing from the same song sheet, that's because they too want to see a No vote come September, so they would, wouldn't they? Should there be a Yes vote then a comprehensive set of negotiations would take place to agree an amicable split...regardless of what either side has said in the run up...it can all change.

[tonkatojo]

Currency union is only part of the issues RR listed, and even then yes of course they're singing from the same song sheet, that's because they too want to see a No vote come September, so they would, wouldn't they? Should there be a Yes vote then a comprehensive set of negotiations would take place to agree an amicable split...regardless of what either side has said in the run up...it can all change.

Aye one can but hope, but we will see as it definitely will come out in the wash.

[ducati]

Currency union is only part of the issues RR listed, and even then yes of course they're singing from the same song sheet, that's because they too want to see a No vote come September, so they would, wouldn't they? Should there be a Yes vote then a comprehensive set of negotiations would take place to agree an amicable split...regardless of what either side has said in the run up...it can all change.

The US Government denies they have a crashed flying saucer and alien bodys...so they must have them right? Sound familiar?

[squidge]

You might also want to read Standard and Poor's report on the credit rating an Independent Scotland is likely to achieve
http://worldofstuart.excellentconten...iderations.pdf

Its not very long but it basically says an Independent Scotland could expect to enjoy investment grade credit ratings (BBB or above) even without a currency union. It also suggests some rebalancing of the economy is required because Scotland has a sector which is unusually large. This sector is Financial Sector and Standard and Poor suggest that this sector poses a risk although re-domiciling some of this business to rUK would reduce that particular risk.

Read it for yourself

[joxville]

The US Government denies they have a crashed flying saucer and alien bodys...so they must have them right? Sound familiar?

Utter claptrap, we know it's not true. However it's rumoured Lord Lucan works as a janitor in Area 51! ;-)

[RagnarRocks]

You might also want to read Standard and Poor's report on the credit rating an Independent Scotland is likely to achievehttp://worldofstuart.excellentconten...iderations.pdfIts not very long but it basically says an Independent Scotland could expect to enjoy investment grade credit ratings (BBB or above) even without a currency union. It also suggests some rebalancing of the economy is required because Scotland has a sector which is unusually large. This sector is Financial Sector and Standard and Poor suggest that this sector poses a risk although re-domiciling some of this business to rUK would reduce that particular risk. Read it for yourself

You really need to learn to read between the lines with financial services its quite apparent you don't understand what they are actually saying. Could have,might have as for a BBB credit rating UK currently enjoys AAA so that instantly means higher interest rates. If your financial services sector decides to move across the border then you have no financial services sector.

Stop trying to put positive spin on every bit of negative news.
People will start to think you're on the payroll of the SNP


Don't forget the last bit which is after the part which says about using sterling without a currency union would make for hard times or the part which says 25% of Scotland's workforce is public sector which would need to be reduced.


In short, the challenge for Scotland to go it alone would be significant, but not unsurpassable.

That doesn't sound like a vibrant economy full of hope and expectations, that sounds very much like tighten your belt you're in for a rougher ride .

[Big Gaz]

Utter claptrap, we know it's not true. However it's rumoured Lord Lucan works as a janitor in Area 51! ;-)

I also heard that rumour but there was the addition that he rides daily from building to building on Shergar and whilst drinking his tea from the holy grail, he listens to the missing 18 minutes of the Watergate tape for inspiration.....

[RagnarRocks]

I don't mind hearing joxs comments because he bears as much relevance to this Independence vote as does David Bowie, if you've moved away you ain't voting cause you don't live here nae more.

[Big Gaz]

I don't mind hearing joxs comments because he bears as much relevance to this Independence vote as does David Bowie, if you've moved away you ain't voting cause you don't live here nae more.

Aye, he left the UK and made "A fantastic voyage" to "A better future" and "A new career in a new town" and to join the "Young Americans" and "All the young dudes" "Night Clubbing" and "Dancing in the street" but it looks like "It ain't easy" "As the world falls down" around him........not that i'm a Bowie fan y'know....oh no...never.....

[squidge]

Its clear you have a huge amount of experience in the financial sector Ragnar so perhaps you could look at my interpretations and explain why they are wrong - without the snidey digs would be helpful

The macroeconomic profile of the wealthy and open Scottish economy conforms with the typical profile of
sovereigns rated in investment-grade categories (i.e., 'BBB-' or higher).

Scotland is a rich country and holds in own in comparisons with other rich countries.

· A successful agreement on Scotland's membership of a monetary union negotiated with either the U.K. or the
eurozone (European Economic and Monetary Union) would provide considerable support for the rating on a
sovereign Scotland.

A Currency union would be the best way to proceed to ensure that Scotland remains financially secure

·

Alternatively, a decision by a sovereign Scotland to issue its own new and untested currency or to unilaterally adopt
the currency of another sovereign--without gaining access to that currency's lender of last resort--could pose some
initial risks to external financing, in our opinion. Specifically, we think Scotland would be hard-pressed, under a new
currency regime, to quickly replicate the deep capital markets it enjoys today as part of the larger U.K.

There are some risks which need to be seriously considered if Scotland decides to go with its own currency .....

· Nevertheless, with a GDP (including North Sea oil output) only slightly below that of New Zealand, a developed
economy and developed financial system, there is no fundamental reason why Scotland could not successfully float
a currency.

however Scotland has the ability and resources to run its own currency successfully

· The composition of Scotland's external balance sheet is as yet hypothetical, but our initial observation is that the
Scottish financial sector is unusually large, with total assets estimated at 12.5x GDP. We would therefore likely view
the financial sector as a significant contingent risk to the state. At the same time, a large part of this activity could be
re-domiciled to the U.K.

the biggest risk to Scotland's economy is not oil but is the financial sector and moving some of this business to the UK would help to reduce that risk. (Seems like the medias "spin" that Standard life are packing their bags might actually be to Scotland's economic benefit - if not the employment benefit.)

IS any of that completely wrong?

Next perhaps you could interpret this bit of the report.

Even excluding North Sea output and calculating per capita GDP only by looking at onshore income, Scotland would qualify for our highest economic assessment. Higher GDP per
capita, in our view, gives a country a broader potential tax and funding base to draw from, which supports
creditworthiness.

I suggest this means that even without oil Scotland has a good credit profile and could expect to get a good credit rating.


And their final paragraph....

n brief, we would expect Scotland to benefit from all the attributes of an investment-grade sovereign credit
characterized by its wealthy economy (roughly the size of New Zealand's), high-quality human capital, flexible product
and labor markets, and transparent institutions. Nevertheless, the newly formed sovereign state would begin life with
comparatively high levels of public debt, sensitivity to oil prices, and, depending on the nature of arrangements with
the EU or U.K., potentially limited monetary flexibility. At the same time, Scotland's external position in terms of
liquidity and investment could be subject to volatility should banks leave. On the other hand, if this were to happen, it
could bring benefits in terms of reducing the size of the Scottish economy's external balance sheet, normalizing the size
of its financial sector, and reducing contingent liabilities for the state. In short, the challenge for Scotland to go it alone
would be significant, but not unsurpassable.

In short what it says is that an Independent Scotland would face risks but could successfully overcome those risks to have a healthy economy and be successful.

See At no time have I or anyone else suggested this is going to be a walk in the park. It is going to be a slog but the benefits of a rich and diversified economy are there for the taking if we CHOOSE. Or do you think Scotland doesnt have the ability to manage its own economy, or isnt educated enough or isnt genetically programmed to do so - both comments made by people who should know better over the last few days. Of course Scotland has the ability to manage its own economy - its ludicrous to suggest we somehow dont, I'm sure you agree.

Finally you say it says tighten your belts you are in for a rough ride. Well Rags - its going to be rough whatever boat we travel in - Independence or the Union - at least in our own boat we can steer things the way WE want to steer things. Something we dont have the ability to do now.

[RagnarRocks]

Without even bothering to read your post its because you fail to take account of things like the currency union isnt available and the way you window dress everything up in almost a delusional desire to put positive spin on things means entering into debate with you is pointless. You're so politically motivated you do not see or fail to understand the pitfalls all you see is the world through your rosé tinted glasses. I'd rather debate with a brick wall

[squidge]

Where is my interpretation WRONG rags - if i am wrong in what I have said then show me where I have spun it differently from what the actual paper says. NO rose tinted glasses here honey. The only reason you would rather debate with a brick wall rags is because a brick wall doesnt ask you to provide any answers - answers you dont seem to have.

You make a lot of your experience as a Financial adviser and I am certain that this is wide ranging and significant so I am asking you - as an expert - to show me how I have so significantly misinterpreted what is written in the paper. How does my statement "It is going to be a slog but the benefits of a rich and diversified economy are there for the taking if we CHOOSE. " indicate that I am delusional.

Yeah you are right I am politically motivated - you are ABSOLUTELY right because politics is the only way to drive social change and that is the driver that persuades me that independence is the right way to go.

[joxville]

I don't mind hearing joxs comments because he bears as much relevance to this Independence vote as does David Bowie, if you've moved away you ain't voting cause you don't live here nae more.

I guess you'll have sent a letter/email to Sean Connery telling him the same thing? :-)

The fact I don't live there doesn't stop me wanting what I believe is the best for my country and try to influence those who have a vote to vote for independence.

[weezer 316]

Squidge ill take your assesment to task alright....

Currency union. I have nailed you on this before. I pointed out, 20 times, how its not in our interests. Same as being in the Euro isnt. We woudlnt actually have independence at all as London would control our fiscal policy, interest rates, the lot. When it was pointed out we would be like Greecem or worse given or massive financial sector that depends on cash flowing, you put your head in the sand and said we have a strnger economy than Greece, completely ignoring the issue. We wouldn't have a strong economy very long that's for sure as its dependent being in control of our currency. You will defend this, despite the fact your wrong.

Your wrong for the same reason Eck ruled out the Euro (think....why would that be.....looks exacty like what he wants with the £) and hes advocating the policy (and you are defending it) because in your head he has framed it as "waaahhhhh....Westminster being bullies....wwwaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhh....call the waaaaaaaaaaaambulance" when in reality it will utterly ruin this countries economy.

And anyway, even if you dont agree with that, why the hell should a foreign country underwrte £125bn of scottish liabilities? Over the cost of £500m in transaction costs!

Please, get a grip. Sheep like you defending such nonsense will drive this place down the pan.