View Full Version : Gambling Or Investment
Here is someting that needs a little thought.
If i new there was a chance to lose money on a 3 way bet... such as win/lose/draw, it would be a gamble.. am I right
So with odds of 5/3 win, 5/2 draw, 2/1 lose
I would place money on say the 2/1... If I placed a £1 what would I win.
Stay with this as there is more to come... you will be amazed....
No take ups.... or are people just seeing what is going on.
what if I placed a £1 bet on each scenario... I am bound to win... arn't I?
this is not a test... I am looking for information....
Stay with this as there is more to come... you will be amazed....
Loch not Lock
19-Mar-08, 23:17
I have been in the gambling business for 45 years, been to nearly every UK racecourse and worked from both sides of the fence. I cannot understand your statement. Be an Angel and explain.
No take ups.... or are people just seeing what is going on.
what if I placed a £1 bet on each scenario... I am bound to win... arn't I?
this is not a test... I am looking for information....
Stay with this as there is more to come... you will be amazed....
No, you are not bound to win. If you put £1 on each and the 5/3 odds is the winner, you are losing money. You would only get £2.67 back for staking £3 in bets. If the 5/2 comes up you get £3.50 back and the 2/1 pays £3 back
A simple survey of the "book" shows that it lies at 99.4% so, if these are bookmakers odds it must be from a piss-poor bookie as there is a 0.6% loss margin at those odds. In a perfect three "horse" book, where all contenders had an equal chance they would all be 2/1 against. Bookmakers used to operate on a 10% profit margin so that means that the odds would have to be trimmed to slightly under 2/1 to offer the profit margin. Odds of 13/8 15/8 and 7/4 would be a more likely offer from a bookmaker in that scenario. It is not uncommon to see books sitting at 120%, or even more, though.
I await the amazing revelation.
Was that the sound of a bubble bursting?
Firstly the same event with the best odds from 3 different bookies.
Secondly if I placed 94p at 5/3 and 72p at 5/2 and 84p at 2/1 my bets will be the same as the winnings... am I right
Stay with this as there is more to come... you will be amazed....
So far Scorrie you are spot on!
Firstly the same event with the best odds from 3 different bookies.
Secondly if I placed 94p at 5/3 and 72p at 5/2 and 84p at 2/1 my bets will be the same as the winnings... am I right
Stay with this as there is more to come... you will be amazed....
So far Scorrie you are spot on!
Your bets come to potential returns of £2.51, £2.52 and £2.52 that includes rounding up on the first bet. Your total stake is £2.50 so a profit of 1p is guaranteed. As I explained earlier, this is due to the book being 99.4%, rather than 100%
Obviously, even if those odds were in your favour via different bookies odds, the profit margin is paltry. You would have to invest massive sums to make it worthwhile. Operating at larger sums then wipes out the benefit of rounding up at the lower sums. Your worst possible return is actually £2.50666666666etc based on the lower stakes and the rounding up does not go beyond the nearest penny if higher stakes are applied.
Say that you invest £25000 instead of £2.50, assuming you can get bookies to accept the far larger bets, your worst case return on the bet of £9400 is £25066.67, a profit of £66.67, hardly a bookie basher. Had the rounding effect on the smaller bet carried forward you would have had £25100 which would have made your profit 50% bigger demonstrating the importance of extrapolating your figures.
I ran a betting office for nearly 10 years and I can tell you that it can be very difficult to get a decent sized bet on, even with the big names. I will wait for the amazing revelation but I see nothing in these odds that offers a realistic chance of making sensible money.
Loch not Lock
21-Mar-08, 09:50
I could not have analysed it better myself, Scorrie. Well done and good luck. It is possible, however, to turn the odds in your favour on the exchanges but it requires both skill and experience to correctly predict which way the market is going to go.
My advice to you, Angel, is to explore Betfair and be be prepared to put in 10+ hours a day studying.
I would like to hear your theory on this, Angel.
So you are with this, that is great...
So the first example bears out the maths...
But does this 7/4 11/4 2/1
The investment should be smaller and the profits margain better.
See if you get what I get.
You will have to wait Quirbil...
I ran a betting office for nearly 10 years ...I would guess the shop was owned by one of the national chains. If so did you get to set the odds or were they passed down to you from above? I have often wondered this so please forgive a naive question from someone who's never placed a bet in a betting office in her life.
Moi x
I would guess the shop was owned by one of the national chains. If so did you get to set the odds or were they passed down to you from above? I have often wondered this so please forgive a naive question from someone who's never placed a bet in a betting office in her life.
Moi x
I worked for an independent firm. There were not enough man hours available to compile odds for the plethora of betting events that are available. A bigger chain will have teams compiling odds, each will have a special expertise in their own particular field. The principles are pretty much the same for any event though. I am assuming Angel's scenario is a football match with three outcomes, home, away and draw. If it were a horse race with 10 runners and they all had the same chance they would each be 9/1. Since that would never happen, odds are contracted and expanded to represent the perceived chance of each runner. In a horse race, bookmakers will adjust the odds as money is placed on the runners. This is in order to balance the book. By shortening odds on horses already backed it should stem the flow of money on those horses and, by lengthening odds on horses that are not being backed, it makes them more likely to attract support. Bookmakers trim the odds at the start to give themselves a profit margin. If they offered the true odds and had a totally balanced book, they would simply be paying out exactly the same money as they had taken in. The theory is that, if the book odds equate to 110% and all horses are backed in equal ratio to their odds, then the bookmaker will retain 10% of all stakes after s/he has paid out on the winner. In reality it is very difficult to achieve a balanced book and there will normally be a horse that is a bad result for the bookie. In this instance they will hedge some of the money with another bookmaker in order to even out the book. Sometimes there will even be a result where nobody had any, or very little, money on the winner, this is known as a "skinner" in the business. Anyone can now play bookie by setting themselves up on one of the betting exchanges and offering odds for fellow users to invest on. Betfair is the biggest of these sites and bookies themselves follow and use these sites now.
So you are with this, that is great...
So the first example bears out the maths...
But does this 7/4 11/4 2/1
The investment should be smaller and the profits margain better.
See if you get what I get.
You will have to wait Quirbil...
That book works out at 96.36%, which is obviously more in your favour than the previous one. Assuming some bookie/s were offering those odds there IS a discrepancy in the figures. It all depends whether those odds exist and whether you can get enough money on each outcome. I highly doubt those odds would be available. If we take one of todays games, Bolton v Man City and see that the betting is reasonably close between them with odds of 6/4 home 8/5 away and 11/5 the draw. Odds will vary slightly with different bookies but the book will remain almost the same. The book on this game works out at 109.7%, which ties in nicely with what I said earlier about the bookies 10% profit margin. There is no way on this Earth that an individual bookie would have a book at less than 100% and I find it almost impossible to imagine a book of 96.36% being out there to any decent level of money.
Thanks scorrie! That was a whole lot more than I expected. :)
Is the adjustment done automatically by computer nowadays? I'd imagine this is something that could be done quite easily as the bets come in.
Moi x
Thanks for that scorrie... mind you I do not understand where the 109.7 has come from or the 96.36 or how they are calculated.
But if I bet £1 @ 7/4 and 72p @11/4 and 92p @ 2/1 I should come out with more money than I placed does that add up?
Glad you are still with me... and thanks for the efforts so far...
-whitewall-
22-Mar-08, 21:57
if this is betfair you are using remember the 5% commission they charge on each winning bet.
Thanks for that scorrie... mind you I do not understand where the 109.7 has come from or the 96.36 or how they are calculated.
But if I bet £1 @ 7/4 and 72p @11/4 and 92p @ 2/1 I should come out with more money than I placed does that add up?
Glad you are still with me... and thanks for the efforts so far...
Your returns would be £2.75, £2.70 and £2.76 respectively for a total outlay of £2.64, meaning a profit of either 11p, 6p or 12p
Probably not a good idea to be investing in something that you do not fully understand. Calculating the book on a set of odds is very basic arithmetic. Take the odds, e.g. 11/8, 9/4 and 13/8, add the two digits together then divide the figure in the right hand side by the total of the two i.e. 8/19,4/13 and 8/21 for the example odds in this case. That gives us approx 0.421 0.308 and 0.381 for these odds. Those figures reflect the share of the book and would add to exactly 1 in a perfectly balanced book. If we tot these examples up it comes to 1.11 or 111%, indicating that the book is 11% in the bookies' favour. Any figure under 100% indicates that the odds are in the punter's favour and no self-respecting bookie would ever allow that to occur.
changilass
22-Mar-08, 22:22
The initial question was gambling or investing, if you are placing a a bet in the bookies then no matter the odds or the winnings then its gambling.
Thanks scorrie! That was a whole lot more than I expected. :)
Is the adjustment done automatically by computer nowadays? I'd imagine this is something that could be done quite easily as the bets come in.
Moi x
It is all computer based these days. In my time (only ten years ago) I had to settle bets by hand, race by race, to calculate cumulative totals on upcoming races. The betting offices are sterile and soulless these days, far removed from the smoke, B.O. and audio only atmosphere that pervaded them in their heyday.
The initial question was gambling or investing, if you are placing a a bet in the bookies then no matter the odds or the winnings then its gambling.
If the odds are such that you cannot lose, whatever the outcome, then it is not a gamble. I think that was the thrust of the original question. If the odds quoted by Angel exist, then, by staking appropriately, a profit is guaranteed. Worst case scenario would be cancellation of the event, in which case you would get all stakes returned anyway.
Loch not Lock
22-Mar-08, 23:37
if this is betfair you are using remember the 5% commission they charge on each winning bet.
Once you've been on Betfair for a time and your turnover is quite high your commission drops to 3 or 4. The high rollers, not me, pay only 2%.
what i am asking is Changilass... if there is no chance of losing on a given event then the gable has gone, has it not.
Gamble = to take a chance.
So scorrie - Place £2.64, in an high interest bank account (say 10%) it would take 85 days to earn the 6p (the lowest of the winning figures).
Wouldn't betting it be a better investment.
Stay with this.... it gets better...
changilass
24-Mar-08, 01:34
I agree that if there is no chance of loosing then it isnt gambling, but if there was no chance of loosing you wouldn't get odds for the event lol.
what i am asking is Changilass... if there is no chance of losing on a given event then the gable has gone, has it not.
Gamble = to take a chance.
So scorrie - Place £2.64, in an high interest bank account (say 10%) it would take 85 days to earn the 6p (the lowest of the winning figures).
Wouldn't betting it be a better investment.
Stay with this.... it gets better...
I am out of this until it becomes clear that something more exists.
The losers are those who like to gamble, take risk etc... it hardly matters wether they win, just that they play... I have watched them...
Knowing they could lose adds adrenilin... keeps them high...
I have presented to them the scenarios above... placed bets by their side and not even bothered to watch the match it is of no interest to me...
To me its just an investment.. gamblers don't see this..
So... where does this leave us...
Well last year there was 1278 incidents where money could be placed with no, thats ZERO chance of losing. All based around a formula. If the formula existed what would this formula be worth?
Loch not Lock
25-Mar-08, 09:36
The losers are those who like to gamble, take risk etc... it hardly matters wether they win, just that they play... I have watched them...
Knowing they could lose adds adrenilin... keeps them high...
I have presented to them the scenarios above... placed bets by their side and not even bothered to watch the match it is of no interest to me...
To me its just an investment.. gamblers don't see this..
So... where does this leave us...
Well last year there was 1278 incidents where money could be placed with no, thats ZERO chance of losing. All based around a formula. If the formula existed what would this formula be worth?
Sometimes by using different bookmakers you can end up with a slightly overbroke book. The problem arrises when you try to get enough money on to make it worthwhile.
There is also another scenario - you manage to get 2 bets on and can't get the 3rd on, either by a price change or can only manage a small bet.
You are then left with a gamble.
What you suggest is fine in theory but near impossible in practice.
.
It is getting more possible as more bookies come on line.. the lack of comunication between them adds to the how they value things...
As all odds are an accumilation based around emotional states when a figure is fixed it moves out of this state and into fact. A fact that has to be seized when the figures are right. Once you own this magical formula its easy to click away and place whatever you can afford knowing there will be more in your account than before the kick-off.
Look at the figures... same money in high interest bank takes 85 days to make what you would in 2 hours.
Who would want such a formula?
......... Who would want such a formula?
Not me for sure.
What is "accumilation"?
It is getting more possible as more bookies come on line.. the lack of comunication between them adds to the how they value things...
As all odds are an accumilation based around emotional states when a figure is fixed it moves out of this state and into fact. A fact that has to be seized when the figures are right. Once you own this magical formula its easy to click away and place whatever you can afford knowing there will be more in your account than before the kick-off.
Look at the figures... same money in high interest bank takes 85 days to make what you would in 2 hours.
Who would want such a formula?
There is no magical formula. It is a simple arithmetical calculation and, to my eyes, it seems like I had to show YOU how it is done. A simple click on betfair pages will instantly show you who is offering what odds. You get the odd clown on there but most are clued up. There was a famous incident where Bradley Dredge was winning a golf tournament but the electronic scorer credited him with having taken 40 strokes at one hole, when he had, in fact taken only 4. One bright spark on Betfair instantly laid him at huge odds, hoping to fish for mug-money before the news of the 40 strokes filtered through. Of course he lost heavily, as people who were well aware that 40 was impossible for a professional golfer to accumulate, filled their boots.
Those events are like hens teeth. In any case, any magical formula becomes useless once it is shared.
So what you are saying Scorrie is... the odds are widely available... and how to place the right amount so as never to lose is there too... this eludes me...
What am I missing?
So what you are saying Scorrie is... the odds are widely available... and how to place the right amount so as never to lose is there too... this eludes me...
What am I missing?
No, I am saying that the odds are easily available for all to see. Anyone planning on playing bookie is going to look at what others are offering first and so the chance for a mistake to occur is rare. Anyone wishing to offer the best odds on an event will look at who is currently offering the best odds and then add the minimum increase required in order to become the new best odds in the village. It would be stupidity to offer any more than is necessary.
The opportunity to place the required money to guarantee a profit is not there. It is purely theoretical that there will be three bookies offering a less than 100% book between them. Even if there were, they all offer to lay to different levels. Sometimes the odds offered are only being given for an investment of 2 or 3 pounds. You might be able to get £1000 on with one guy but only £100 with another and perhaps a skittery fiver is all that another person is willing to take. These are not any use to anyone trying to cover a book where there may only be a 1% profit margin or even less.
The best case scenario you could hope for would be odds in your favour from three seperate layers, all three layers willing to take a decent bet at the appropriate levels for each outcome. Even with that, site commission would probably wipe out the profit.
Believe me, many mathematical wizards have tried to find a way to work the system. If it could be done, layers would be bust and punters would be driving Rollers. This is the reason that people prefer the stockmarket for investment.
No, I am saying that the odds are easily available for all to see.........
This is the reason that people prefer the stockmarket for investment.
Thanks for that Scorrie.
Since Angel has chosen to ignore my question, can you tell me what "accumilation" is?
Sorry Moira wasn't sure weather the question was serious...
Accumilation (assuming it is spelt right) means to gather, collect etc.
But I am not sure what the relevance unless you meant accumilator!
More to come...
Back again... So what is this 'BOOK' and can I get a copy. is there an software equivilent... where would I go to get book/software...
Angel
P.S. Any help would be appreciated...
Sorry Moira wasn't sure weather the question was serious...
...
My question was serious Angel.
Do you have a wind-up alarm clock perhaps?
Back again... So what is this 'BOOK' and can I get a copy. is there an software equivilent... where would I go to get book/software...
Angel
P.S. Any help would be appreciated...
There is no 'BOOK'. There is no formula. There is 'software' available to help you try stack the odd's in your favour but in the end it is a gamble, I for one wouldn't waste my money on it. The one's who make money are bookmakers and casino's and they know every trick and watch pattern's of betting to reduce their losses. For every winning punter there is a lot of losing punter's.
As you can see I'm new to this forum. As with Scorrie I've been in the bookmaking industry for many years and can assure you that all of the major bookmakers and most probably the great majority of the lesser bookies utilise Betfair to provide "tissue prices", namely the first prices issued on any event and will be greatly guided by the betting exchanges until that market closes therefore there won't be much of a difference in prices to exploit. Gone are the days when you could work the "arbs" (arbitrage) to gain an advantage in a market although there are a few online sites that would lend you to believe that it was still possible, but they do look for a financial subscription, NOW THERE'S A SURPRISE! Scorrie undoubtedly knows what he's talking about and I would rather subscribe to his expertise than any of these dubious offers.
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