Coronavirus [Archive] - Caithness.Org Forums

orkneycadian

24-Jan-20, 21:42

Without a crystal ball, I doubt that anyone can make any kind of predictions. But lets, just for a minute, imagine the suggestion in the following link were to play out;

https://metro.co.uk/2020/01/24/coronavirus-china-symptoms-pandemic-12116616/

This is how the coronavirus could spread across the world and become a pandemic

and specifically the text;

Last year, one study about a fictional coronavirus pandemic claimed 65 million people could die within 18 months.

Horrendous as it may sound, losing 65 million people in 18 months is still not enough to stem worldwide population growth. Without any pandemics, the population will rise by about 121 million in 18 months. Subtract the 65 million and there will still be a population rise of 56 million. OK, might not be as simple as that if the pandemic claims people of reproductive age, but its in that ball park.

orkneycadian

25-Jan-20, 11:07

And for some perspective to date, if the outbreak is considered to have started on the 31st of December, when it was notified to the WHO, then in that time, 41 people have died from it, whilst the worlds population has increased by about 5.625 million

So as yet, its not going to be the end of us.

As an aside, the latter number above is greater than the population of Scotland. So for anyone trying to imagine the scale of the "population emergency", another Scotland has been added to the world since New Years Day.

orkneycadian

25-Jan-20, 12:17

Just happened upon a debate on Radio Scotland where they are discussing a programme on population, that must have been on in the last few days;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000dl6q

Chris Packham: 7.7 Billion People and Counting
Not seen it, but sounds like interesting viewing if I can figure out how to get it played back again.....

Gronnuck

25-Jan-20, 12:26

Mibbies its time to get Greta Thunberg to switch her attention to the global population crisis.....

Alrock

25-Jan-20, 14:03

Chris Packham: 7.7 Billion People and Counting.....

Interesting programme, explained the situation quite well but shied away from any real solutions.

orkneycadian

25-Jan-20, 18:01

Mibbies its time to get Greta Thunberg to switch her attention to the global population crisis.....

She might as well. All she seems able to do is rant at anyone older than her about how bad they have been, whilst tweeting away to all and sundry on her tech gadgets, contributing to the rise in energy demand of the internet.

orkneycadian

25-Jan-20, 18:03

Interesting programme, explained the situation quite well but shied away from any real solutions.

Just like everyone else then? "Oh yes, we must (we = the Government) must do something about the increase in CO2 emissions caused by mankind, but oh no, we could't even dream of limiting the explosion in numbers of mankind - Lets have a School Strike - That will make all the difference"

orkneycadian

31-Jan-20, 18:36

Interesting graphic;

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/F961/production/_110714836_optimised-coronavirus_faceted_map_jan_30-nc.png

Suggests that the number of cases approximately doubles every 2 days. Oh well, the entire global population will have it within 3 weeks. But with only a 2% mortality rate, its not going to do anything lasting to the population emergency.

Gronnuck

01-Feb-20, 14:20

So for anyone trying to imagine the scale of the "population emergency", another Scotland has been added to the world since New Years Day.
Mibbies its time for the grubbiement to give notice that they will stop Child Benefit for all new-born children from one year hence. People might then reevaluate the planning of their families. Unfortunately this will do very little to change familial practices in many other areas of the world.

Goodfellers

01-Feb-20, 16:28

What I find interesting is the way the virus has spread throughout the world. Useful information for the WHO for when a serious virus occurs.

Anyone remember Survivors tv series in the 70's about such a spread. I always thought I had the skills to survive if I was one of the lucky ones.

orkneycadian

01-Feb-20, 17:41

BBC reporting that the number of cases today standing at about 12,000. So the approximation of the number of cases roughly doubling every 2 days still stands. Friday the 21st of February and the whole planet will have caught it! But then again, there was a Chinese nurse on some news sites about a week ago saying there was 90,000 cases. Who to believe.....

Bill Fernie

02-Feb-20, 09:57

I googled - "will the virus change" and got this - https://www.sciencenewsforstudents.org/article/the-many-challenges-of-corralling-a-coronavirus-outbreak

orkneycadian

02-Feb-20, 11:28

Though the BBC are reporting officially 14000 cases today on https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-51345855 the same webpage suggests that the University of Hong Kong are estimating 75,000 in Wuhan alone. If so, then the doubling every 2 days is a day or 2 behind....

988

02-Feb-20, 20:51

So, here's the thing. All of the deaths have been amongst heavy smokers developing complications such as Pneumonia etc, China is a country of very very heavy smoking. Good job Caithness folk do not partake in this disgusting habit ?

orkneycadian

03-Feb-20, 20:35

So the one week China hospital is open for business and admitting patients. Now why can't Scotland do that? That's not a political question. I don't believe any political party, if in charge, could do that. We can learn a lot from the Chinese, when it comes to productivity.

orkneycadian

08-Feb-20, 00:57

So one thing that it's puzzling me about the reporting of this coronavirus.

The mortality rate is being reported as being about 2%, that being the number if deaths divided by the number of reported cases. With the latest figures, that's about 700/34000

Given that the time between symptoms and death is on average 14 days (source = worldometers) although there were 41 days between the first reported case and the first reported death, should the true death rate not be total number of deaths to date divided by total number of cases 14 (or 41) days ago?

So 700 divided by, lets see, 2000. So a more realistic death rate of 35%?

According to worldometers, only 2,034 folk have actually recovered from it.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Hang on, someone at the door asking me to open up. Saying they are delivering a Chinese takeaway? I never ordered a Chinese takeaway.........

orkneycadian

12-Feb-20, 07:32

Seems that folk are cottoning on that deaths to date divided by cases to date is not an accurate measure. Worrldometers now report the death rate as being deaths to date divided by (deaths plus recoverees). Presently gives a mortality rate of 19%

orkneycadian

01-Mar-20, 20:39

So had anyone in Caithness got it yet or thinks that they have got it?

I thought I might have got it last week, after eating curried bat at the Chinese. Had a terrible cough after it, and felt gey wabbit. As it turned, out, it was vindaloo strength, which went for my throat, and I misread the menu. It was cat, not bat! Doh!

Corky Smeek

02-Mar-20, 17:17

The following is a quote from Paul Kavanagh's latest blog post.

"....new cases are appearing elsewhere in the UK and all across Europe. Yet today the British Government announced that it’s quitting the EU’s pandemic warning system. According to reports, the Department of Health in England wanted to remain a part of the EU’s Early Warning and Response System, but it was vetoed by Number 10. The EWRS is an online platform which allows health authorities across the EU to share information about serious cross-border health threats, but Number 10 has ruled that the UK won’t be a part of it because it’s fixated on a “clean break” from the EU.

Isn't it nice to know that Boris and Dominic are at the helm; looking after us at a time of crisis and not letting political dogma get in the way of saving lives? As Kavanagh goes on to say, it is highly likely that the Health Ministers in the devolved parliaments were advised of this decision rather than being consulted on it. They are playing with lives.

orkneycadian

02-Mar-20, 20:44

Looks like it won't be so long before the Chinese containment effort looks magnificent, whilst the rest of the world's efforts look farcical. China builds 2500 beds worth of hospitals in a week, Scotland comes up with "drive in testing". China have it under control, whilst it runs rampant elsewhere.

The growth rate of cases outside China is deeply concerning. For those that say "it's just 40 odd cases out of 65 million" they should look at the charts of cases outside of China. Even on a logarithmic scale, that line is curling upwards.

Corky Smeek

02-Mar-20, 21:29

I knew the SNP were to blame for Coronavirus. It's high time Nicola resigned and Scotland just capitulated and let others decide how best we should be looked after.

Neil Howie

02-Mar-20, 23:03

they should look at the charts of cases outside of China. Even on a logarithmic scale, that line is curling upwards.

Exactly - Graph of coronavirus outside of China
(https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#case-tot-outchina)
Keeping a close eye on things as extremely neurotic about health at the best of times,

Alrock

03-Mar-20, 00:53

Unfortunately the counter (http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/) is still going up...

orkneycadian

03-Mar-20, 19:25

I'm afraid coronavirus will not solve the population emergency. Even if some of the predictions played out, and 80 million people died of it, (who weren't ready to die of something else anyway) then that would simply cancel out 1 year of population growth.

orkneycadian

03-Mar-20, 20:41

Keeping a close eye on things as extremely neurotic about health at the best of times,

No neuroticism here. But I recognise and understand an exponential curve when I see one. I understand a logarithmic scale on a graph too. It's not about the absolute numbers at this second in time. It's all about the rate of change.

Corky Smeek

03-Mar-20, 21:19

The view from Sweden

https://twitter.com/TheRosie/status/1234812467898916864

orkneycadian

07-Mar-20, 11:34

Orkney Islands Council still seem to be intent on having 150 deliveries of coronavirus made to Orkney this year aboard cruise liners. Whilst the rest of the worlds ports are turning them away.

orkneycadian

07-Mar-20, 11:49

The goverments (I use the plurality) are having a bit of a laugh - They say we are still in the "contain" phase, before moving to the "delay" phase. What of course they mean is that they have completely failed to contain it, so are now having to think of plan B, despite having the perfect opportunity to contain it a month or 2 ago. But no, letting folk go on skiing trip was far more important that protecting our weak and vulnerable citizens.

China has been a shining example of containment, and thats reflected in the first peak and decline of cases - OK, a few folk had to get manhandled out of their flats and into boxes on the backs of pickups to be carted away for isolation - But it worked. Now all the liberal countries are finding that letting folk get on with life as normal results in a spread like wildfire. At the end of all this, China will be well down the table of cases and deaths, and the liberal states will be the ones who lose the most amount of citizens.

So, delay phase next - Yup, that wont work well - What comes next? The mass cremation and burial stage?

Fulmar

07-Mar-20, 12:55

Oh, you are such a barrel of laughs Orkneycadian. The number of cases here always was going to rise but so far, so good and the system for self isolation is in place and seems sensible to me.
If you want to go and live in a totalitarian state, you go right ahead. (The Uyghur people no doubt will soon be able tell you exactly how it is and how the system works).
No sign of panic buying yet in Wick anyway.

orkneycadian

07-Mar-20, 13:03

The exponential rise in cases would seem to suggest otherwise.....

35171

orkneycadian

07-Mar-20, 13:13

What will be interesting, is to see how the rest of the world copes with the 2nd rise;

35172
The first rise and fall above is obviously China, complete with the anomaly due to the way cases were reported. The second rise is largely the rest of the world aside from China, with several countries, notably Iran, South Korea and possibly Italy, each managing to conjure up more new daily cases than China. If all this "containment" is working, then that second rise should peak and fall, just like it did when the majority of cases were in China.

mi16

07-Mar-20, 20:36

Coronavirus isolation hotel collapses in China trapping many.
It never Rains but pours eh.
If it wasn’t for bad luck they would have none at all

Neil Howie

07-Mar-20, 23:03

What will be interesting, is to see how the rest of the world copes with the 2nd rise;

Consider - America -

CDC issued faulty testing kits (https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615323/why-the-cdc-botched-its-coronavirus-testing/) and prevented other labs from using their own tests
CDC staffers only found out about a suspected case of the coronavirus at the agency when Trump told reporters (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/06/trump-cancels-trip-to-cdc-friday-122653) (result was negative so trip to CDC was back on!)The American numbers for covid-19 are badly wrong (https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/03/how-many-americans-really-have-coronavirus/607348/)

Neil Howie

07-Mar-20, 23:13

But for some of those that recover from covid-19 it could lead to lasting damage :

The effects of Covid-19 on the human body ‘is like a combination of SARS and AIDS as it damages both the lungs and immune systems’, Peng Zhiyong told the Global Times. (https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1181121.shtml)

"The autopsy results Liu shared inspired me a lot. Based on the results, I think the most important thing now is to take measures at an early stage of the disease to protect patients' lungs from irreversible fibrosis," Peng noted.

If irreversible damage is done, other measures, like those to prevent patients from oxygen deficit, will not be of much use, he said.

Liu's team published a paper on an autopsy they conducted in the Journal of Forensic Medicine on Tuesday.

The paper said there was apparent damage to the patient's lungs. An excess production of mucus spilled out of the alveoli, indicating COVID-19 causes an inflammation response that damages deep airways and pulmonary alveoli.

The patient, an 85-year-old man, exhibited similar pathological changes to those caused by SARS and MERS. Fibrosis in his lungs was not as serious as was seen in SARS patients, but an exudative reaction was more apparent, possibly due to the short course of his disease.

ecb

08-Mar-20, 10:43

There are two Corona virus related petitions on the UK Government and Parliament petitions web site:

"Close Schools/Colleges down for an appropriate amount of time amidst COVID19":

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/300403

"Include self-employed in statutory sick pay during Coronavirus":

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/300336

orkneycadian

08-Mar-20, 14:20

The schools petition no doubt signed by 99% schoolkids hoping for a holiday, whilst those that are are self employed really need to get a grip and understand what self employment means. As their own employer, they will have course made provision for such events. Either that, or they have spent the last while bragging about how cushy it is being your own boss, working when you like, etc. Just like all the gig economy snowflakes did when they though that they had landed their dream job and could work when they fancied, then discovered there were in fact downsides....

orkneycadian

08-Mar-20, 14:26

Are there any handy mnemonics, songs to sing, like the 20 second handwashing one, that I can use to remind myself what folk keep saying. "Its less infections than a cold, it'll nevere come to anything, put it in perspective......"

35173
Because try as I might, I cannot find any evidence of seasonal flu increasing its number of cases like the above. So in perspective, the growth factor of the rate of increase of coronavirus cases is squillions of times higher than the rate of seasonal flu cases. Ah, that's what they mean by putting it in perspective?

Better Out Than In

08-Mar-20, 14:39

Only the wise die

orkneycadian

08-Mar-20, 14:48

Try telling that to "Mad Mike" Hughes, the chap who last month pancaked himself on the curved earth, trying to prove it was flat.

The Horseman

08-Mar-20, 14:59

Seems Mercenary that Newspapers charge to get details on COVID19.

aqua

08-Mar-20, 15:00

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ produces graphs for ‘all countries excluding China’, but I can’t find the equivalent for China alone. If the China figures are accurate, they seem to have curtailed the spread and we should learn from their success. Next week’s numbers from China will be crucial.

orkneycadian

08-Mar-20, 15:06

Though there are no specific graphs for it, the tables lower down show the Chinese already have it well under control;

35174
Meanwhile, everyone else is making a right haggis of containment, and may as well give up now. The Italians are at least a month late in their action. Had they locked down all incoming travel from Asia, then 233 of their citizens may now not have died. Instead, Italy has, so far, lost the equivenlent of a major air disaster.

aqua

08-Mar-20, 15:11

Agreed on all counts.

I’ve been watching those tables all along, but it would be good to have graphs like the one you posted earlier but for China alone. ‘A graph is worth a thousand figures’.

orkneycadian

08-Mar-20, 15:37

Your wish, Aqua, is my command (within reason.....)

35175

orkneycadian

08-Mar-20, 20:35

A lot of folk say in relation to coronavirus "Oh, look at in perspective and compare it to how many folk die of seasonal flu"

OK, we can do that. Italy has had a very bad day - 133 folk died of Coronavirus since yesterday, bringing their total to 366. Whats the "ordinary" flu season been like in Italy so far this winter?

https://www.thelocal.it/20200123/flu-outbreak-in-italy-half-a-million-people-struck-down-in-a-week

Flu outbreak in Italy: Half a million people struck down in a week

OK, so that report was posted on the 23rd of January, so a bit ago. But whats it saying? Since October 2019 to January 2020, 240 flu deaths have been reported, vs the expected 258 by that stage in the season. It also says that January is the expected peak. So lets just double the 240 to 480 for easy counting. 480 Italians expected to die in the 6 month long flu season. And 133 have died of coronavirus since yesterday.

OK, that puts it in perspective for me. To all the folk that suggest coronavirus is compared to seasonal flu deaths, thanks for the hint!

aqua

08-Mar-20, 20:51

Your wish, Aqua, is my command (within reason.....)

35175
Wow, I didn’t expect that! Thank you!

How did you get the data?

orkneycadian

08-Mar-20, 20:57

Simples - Just subtracted the "Rest of the world" numbers from the "Total numbers", then plotted all 3 - All from the Worldometers site

For a bit of extra fun, I have redistributed the big spike they had when the changed the recording method. In the below version, there's still the same number of cases, I have just redistributed them a little bit in the days leading up to the spike to make a "best guess" of what it could look like.

35177

Corky Smeek

09-Mar-20, 16:37

Interesting video - "Why new diseases keep appearing in China".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TPpoJGYlW54&feature=youtu.be

orkneycadian

09-Mar-20, 20:07

mi16

09-Mar-20, 21:49

It has invaded Shetland now, getting a little close to home for my liking.

aqua

10-Mar-20, 01:08

An update for you Aqua.

35179
Not much new there. What I do note of interest today on the Worldometers site is that when ranked in order of "cases per 1 million population", China has dropped down to 5th today, from 4th yesterday. Pro rata, they are already far from being the worst inflicted country
Thanks for the update!

I hadn’t realised you could get the numbers for individual days by mouseover on the Worldometers bar charts. I thought you would have to follow the reference link they provide elsewhere on the site for each data point.

Your guess of the numbers leading up to the spike is probably as good as anyone else’s.

So far so good for China’s efforts to can the virus. Italy’s response has been truly pathetic, I fear the rest of Europe won’t do any better.

orkneycadian

10-Mar-20, 09:13

Fulmar

10-Mar-20, 09:22

Do you include the major cover up that took place in the beginning and silencing people who tried to speak out- and that is still happening right now? The Chinese people are by no means universally happy with their government's response. I would have more respect if they banned the disgusting, utterly horrendous so called wet live 'meat' markets where the problem originated. Bat to pangolin (pangolin being on the brink of extinction) to humans. Could you watch that video that Corky posted the link to yesterday, I could not get to the end of it. As we all know, it is not only meat it is the illegal trade in endangered animals for traditional medicine that also put humans at risk not to mention the immorality of it all. So excuse me if I don't join in with your adulation.

orkneycadian

10-Mar-20, 12:21

Fortunately, I don't see any of Corky Smeeks posted drivel, thanks to the ignore list.

Regards China, I can only go on the figures in the public domain. I think there will be errors in all countries submissions. How many folk in the UK have had it, but had no symptoms of note, or put it down to a cold?

Yes, I agree that China probably tried to cover it up at the beginning, but I think they soon learned and I would have a lot more faith in their current figures.

China's eating habits are part of their culture. We are encouraged to embrace cultural diversity, and accommodate it, even if that is significantly different from our own. So whilst I would probably pass on the lightly kebabed bat, I appreciate that that's what their culture is.

Fulmar

10-Mar-20, 13:11

From BBC Scotland website:
Globally, authorities have confirmed more than 109,000 cases of the coronavirus and more than 3,800 deaths.
The vast majority of cases - more than 80,900 - are in China, where the virus originated in December.

Neil Howie

10-Mar-20, 23:22

The farcical part of all this is that China showed the way, and the rest of the world had the chance to watch and learn. But didn't.

Well if Italy has now copied China in order to contain the virus, maybe we should do that too? And do it now?

'This is Britain in a fortnight': Scientist reveals UK is on same trajectory as Italy and is ‘two weeks away’ from a similar coronavirus lockdownHow many days behind (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8094951/UK-coronavirus-outbreak-bad-Italys-two-weeks-time.html)

Sorry dailymail but was the first site I found with graphs!

Neil Howie

10-Mar-20, 23:41

Meanwhile in the UK:

'No one has told me to self-isolate...I just want to get back to work':

Uber driver is among hundreds returning to Britain from locked-down Italy who say there are NO coronavirus checks or advice at UK airports (same site (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8095727/Uber-driver-Brits-returning-Italy-Weve-told-self-isolation.html))

Goodfellers

11-Mar-20, 09:17

Fulmar

11-Mar-20, 09:23

I don't think that is being over cautious as it is precisely what is being recommended, it seems to me. It must be a worry for you and I hope you stay well- the problem is, none of us know, do we and a rapidly evolving situation. Look after yourself.

Corky Smeek

11-Mar-20, 12:20

Goodfellers, you are doing the right thing. Thank you. I sincerely hope you stay well. Take care.

Goodfellers

11-Mar-20, 12:38

Thanks to both. I feel absolutly fine, no symptoms of anything just a tiny bit concerned because you have no idea who is on the plane with you! Always get a sniff/cough from flying long haul, but this time it just felt a bit more concerned!

Still have both freezers full and plenty of UHT, so can easily manage for a fortnight. Just glad we are retired and don't have to go to work.

Fulmar

11-Mar-20, 17:41

Now a pandemic according to WHO.

orkneycadian

11-Mar-20, 18:17

So China has already dropped down to 9th in the league table of cases per head of population. Below even Denmark and Norway. Meanwhile the boss of the WHO is "deeply concerned" about "alarming levels of inaction"

What were the naysayers saying the other day? "Its none worse than seasonal flu - In fact, many more folk die form that". Ah-ha.

orkneycadian

11-Mar-20, 18:21

I've just got back from a trip to the dark continent. Transiting in Doha. So that was four packed flights full of people from every corner of the globe.

Not a single check on anyone. Sat next to an Italian who was clearly not well for a seven hour flight. No checks or questions at Edinburgh on arrival. Plenty of Chinese seen milling around in Doha airport.

Nobody seems worried (apart from me).

I will be keeping away from the general population for the recommended 12 days, just to make sure. Probably over cautious, but I don't want to be the cause of the first Highland infection.

Welcome back! Though don't take it personally, but the very fact you are back shows the root of the problem. Even at this stage, our coastal borders are as porous as a tea bag. The UK should be easy to "defend" from "foreign" virii, but our insistence on having invisible borders has, in this case so far, cost 6 UK citizens their lives. The same policy has cost 827 Italian citizens theirs. All in the name of "freedom of movement". Its little wonder the WHO are dismayed by the inaction.

orkneycadian

11-Mar-20, 18:22

Neil Howie

12-Mar-20, 00:33

Yeah, also I don't think there's a general understanding out there of what containment is for.
So that the intention so far is to 'flatten the curve', that is delay the outbreak so that the NHS can absorb it.
Here's another graph:)

https://www.nbcnews.com/science/science-news/what-flatten-curve-chart-shows-how-critical-it-everyone-fight-n1155636
Why ‘flattening the curve’ may be the world’s best bet to slow the coronavirus (https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/11/flattening-curve-coronavirus/)

35180

Neil Howie

12-Mar-20, 01:46

Dr. Fauci sought to rebut the claim — repeated often by President Trump — that the coronavirus was no worse than the flu.

“People always say, ‘Well, the flu does this, the flu does that.’ The flu has a mortality of 0.1 percent. This has a mortality of 10 times that,” Dr. Fauci said.

New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/11/world/coronavirus-news.html?action=click&module=moreIn&pgtype=Article&region=Footer&action=click&module=MoreInSection&pgtype=Article&region=Footer&contentCollection=The%20Coronavirus%20Outbreak)

orkneycadian

12-Mar-20, 08:18

So today could be the day where we "move from the containment phase to the delay phase". What that really means it's that we have totally failed to deal with this, due to the policy of maintaining transparent borders, and foolishly thinking that "contact tracing" would work.

Goodfellers

12-Mar-20, 09:44

I was only thinking about contact tracing this morning laying in bed.

I jump when the phone rings, just in case its Qatar airways telling me someone on the flight has tested positive, you then think how many people have I come into contact with. Too many to work out is the answer. Even the car park bus was pretty full, who would know who they were? From the car park forward would be ok.

The way governments around the world are starting to react, I wonder if there is more to this virus than 'they' are telling us. I remember Survivors TV series in the 70's with its intro...passports from all around the world being stamped! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QzKQJXhTUC0

Kevin Milkins

12-Mar-20, 13:45

They must be starting to take it serious in Wick now, I had an appointment with the nurse at doctors surgery for next Wednesday and it has been cancelled because of the virus containment issue.

aqua

12-Mar-20, 13:56

It very much looks like the first rise and fall is almost exclusively China, whilst the second rise is almost exclusively everyone other than China. I fear that in months to come, China's response will have put them at the top of the list for reaction, and bottom of the list for cases / deaths. The farcical part of all this is that China showed the way, and the rest of the world had the chance to watch and learn. But didn't.
Yes, it’s been clear to me for some time that the reaction of most countries has been insufficient. China has had very few new cases per day for more than a week now. At this rate, they could be close to eradicating it by the end of the month! Except that they probably won’t because it’s hard to stop the occasional reinfection. Ironically, the biggest threat to China may be from outside the country in a few weeks! I’m assuming of course that the China figures are believable.

aqua

12-Mar-20, 14:02

aqua

12-Mar-20, 14:10

Goodfellers

12-Mar-20, 14:33

Thanks Aqua

Kenya! It was a very good airfare from Edinburgh via Doha.......Would fly direct next time even though it cost far more.

Usually fly to Gatwick from Inv then get international flights, but thought I would give Edinburgh a go...shame the Wick flight to Edinburgh is so expensive, that would have saved a six hour drive.

aqua

12-Mar-20, 14:53

Ok, that makes sense. I hope you had a good trip.

The rest of us should try to keep you entertained (or exasperated) during your isolation!

aqua

12-Mar-20, 15:52

The way governments around the world are starting to react, I wonder if there is more to this virus than 'they' are telling us. I remember Survivors TV series in the 70's with its intro...passports from all around the world being stamped! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QzKQJXhTUC0
I’ve had that thought too. Think Planet of the Apes!

Fear and paranoia have a bad effect on my brain.

Goodfellers

12-Mar-20, 16:31

Fulmar

12-Mar-20, 16:54

Yesterday I heard a great conspiracy theory that it is a deliberate ploy to get rid of all us 'everything is your fault' oldies! Meantime, in Thurso Co-Op, panic buying has evidently been rife as not a loo roll in sight! Wonderful, ain't it- no shortage of loo rolls except that which people have created themselves. That's what you get when you tell people 'no need to panic'!

Goodfellers

12-Mar-20, 16:59

Fulmar

12-Mar-20, 17:29

I wasn't going to say on here in case it got out but I know you won't tell anybody Goodfellers. So, I did happen to notice that there were still boxes of tissues and some kitchen rolls available. That is about the extent of my powers of lateral thinking and besides, I was too intent on stocking up on my favourite brand of filter coffee and will be seriously put out if that is panic bought by anyone else!

aqua

12-Mar-20, 17:40

Well if Italy has now copied China in order to contain the virus, maybe we should do that too? And do it now?

'This is Britain in a fortnight': Scientist reveals UK is on same trajectory as Italy and is ‘two weeks away’ from a similar coronavirus lockdown

How many days behind (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8094951/UK-coronavirus-outbreak-bad-Italys-two-weeks-time.html)

Sorry dailymail but was the first site I found with graphs!
Thanks for posting this. The agreement between those graphs is impressive. The total number of UK cases increased by about 30% today, in agreement with the predictions. The number of cases in Scotland increased by almost 70% today, which I would guess is much higher than the percentage we’ll see for the next week or so - I hope!

The government(s) must take firmer action now, surely!

aqua

12-Mar-20, 17:55

So, BBC just announce 10 deaths from C-19.....yet go back a few months to 10th December and 800 were dying (a week) from 'normal' flu and nobody seemed bothered. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-7776893/Number-people-died-week-8-higher-time-winter.html

Why are the authorities getting so worked up about C-19?

Internet is no good, it's full of speculation and hype. Press love 'end of the world' stories.
The death rate from the Coronavirus is much higher than for seasonal flu, and this country is in the very early stages of the Corona pandemic. If everyone in the UK catches it and the death rate is 6% as suggested by the simple-minded measure on the Worldometers site, then it will kill four million people in the UK alone!

That’s a worst case scenario (I hope!).

aqua

12-Mar-20, 18:06

If the UK rate of increase stays at today’s 33% per day, we will have more cases than China by the end of the month, and everyone in the UK will have it by late April, if I’ve done my sums right.

Edited, as I definitely didn’t get my sums right for April!

Corky Smeek

12-Mar-20, 22:59

A little black humour is called for, I think.

The Be Good Tanyas' fantastic version of the Townes van Zandt classic "Waiting Around To Die".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RG1f1kpCZSU

The Horseman

12-Mar-20, 23:04

The Horseman

12-Mar-20, 23:05

a little black humour is called for, i think.

The be good tanyas' fantastic version of the townes van zandt classic "waiting around to die".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rg1f1kpczsu

oh deary me.

Neil Howie

12-Mar-20, 23:45

Why are the authorities getting so worked up about C-19?

I think the reasoning is that a large spike in hospitalisations is very bad for the health service.

China, having largely resolved it's cases, is now worried about being re-infected by the rest of the world,

Neil Howie

12-Mar-20, 23:56

Aqua...now how do you know if ‘any’ Country in the World is accurately reporting their cases of the illness.

Like say Iran? seems to have an unusually high number of death to infection rate suggests infection may be wider spread than they let on?
For the truly paranoid nothing will suffice.
For his part Trump at least tried to calm the markets, shame their healthcare system is a mess $3000 for a test, who was going to get that done?

Neil Howie

13-Mar-20, 00:09

So much interesting information in this interview

Interview regarding World Health Organization (WHO) mission to China, led by the agency’s assistant director general and veteran epidemiologist (https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/2020/3/2/21161067/coronavirus-covid19-china#top)Bruce Aylward
I think the key learning from China is speed — it’s all about the speed. The faster you can find the cases, isolate the cases, and track their close contacts, the more successful you’re going to be. Another big takeaway is that even when you have substantial transmission with a lot of clusters — because people are looking at the situation in some countries now and going, “Oh, gosh, what can be done?” — what China demonstrates is if you settle down, roll up your sleeves, and begin that systematic work of case finding and contact tracing, you definitely can change the shape of the outbreak, take the heat out of it, and prevent a lot of people from getting sick and a lot of the most vulnerable from dying.
...

More of a surprise, and this is something we still don’t understand, is how little virus there was in the much broader community. Everywhere we went, we tried to find and understand how many tests had been done, how many people were tested, and who were they.

In Guangdong province, for example, there were 320,000 tests done in people coming to fever clinics, outpatient clinics. And at the peak of the outbreak, 0.47 percent of those tests were positive. People keep saying [the cases are the] tip of the iceberg. But we couldn’t find that. We found there’s a lot of people who are cases, a lot of close contacts — but not a lot of asymptomatic circulation of this virus in the bigger population. And that’s different from flu. In flu, you’ll find this virus right through the child population, right through blood samples of 20 to 40 percent of the population.

Julia BelluzIf you didn’t find the “iceberg” of mild cases in China, what does it say about how deadly the virus is — the case fatality rate?
Bruce AylwardIt says you’re probably not way off. The average case fatality rate is 3.8 percent in China, but a lot of that is driven by the early epidemic in Wuhan where numbers were higher. If you look outside of Hubei province [where Wuhan is], the case fatality rate is just under 1 percent now. I would not quote that as the number. That’s the mortality in China — and they find cases fast, get them isolated, in treatment, and supported early. Second thing they do is ventilate dozens in the average hospital; they use extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5239989/) [removing blood from a person’s body and oxygenating their red blood cells] when ventilation doesn’t work. This is sophisticated health care. They have a survival rate for this disease I would not extrapolate to the rest of the world. What you’ve seen in Italy and Iran is that a lot of people are dying.

aqua

13-Mar-20, 00:34

Aqua...now how do you know if ‘any’ Country in the World is accurately reporting their cases of the illness.
And the average rate of Death so far is approx 3%.
It’s just too early to tell. We are at the beginning.
Listen to Prezzzzz Trump/ he is my Hero!
i don’t know if any country in the world has an accurate measure of their number of cases. I can only work with the data that’s available to the public. My guess is that South Korea has the most accurate figures because they’ve done far more tests than anyone else and will have picked up very mild cases. Similarly, USA numbers will be vastly underestimated because they’ve done very few tests.

The simple-minded death rate of 6% came from Worldometers and is defined to be the number of deaths divided by the number of recoveries+deaths thus far. It’s probably a significant overestimate of the true figure at this stage of the outbreak, although it’s heading upwards due to the (nominal?) high death rate in Italy.

Trump is out of his depth as usual.

aqua

13-Mar-20, 01:04

Thanks for posting the Bruce Aylward interview Neil. I didn’t do my homework on the level of testing in China, but I had picked up that the level of healthcare in China is very high. The death rate in Italy is very worrying because their healthcare system seems to have a good reputation. All data points towards the need for early diagnosis and rapid response, both in terms of isolation and medical intervention.

The Horseman

13-Mar-20, 02:39

[QUOTE=aqua;1190900]i don’t know if any country in the world has an accurate measure of their number of cases. I can only work with the data that’s available to the public.
********My guess is that South Korea has the most accurate figures because they’ve done far more tests than anyone else and will have picked up very mild cases. Similarly, USA numbers will be vastly underestimated because they’ve done very few tests.

**********The simple-minded death rate of 6% came from Worldometers and is defined to be the number of deaths divided by the number of recoveries thus far. It’s probably a significant overestimate of the true figure at this stage of the outbreak, although it’s heading upwards due to the (nominal?) high death rate in Italy.

Trump is out of his depth as usual.[/QUOT

The highlighted areas are dangerous statements....Guess/Simple minded and your comment on Trump.
You have absolutely No Idea of what you speak....The prob is that some people mite believe u!
This is not personal....Just watch what U post.

orkneycadian

13-Mar-20, 09:01

Tomorrow folks, you will witness one of the biggest local acts of stupidity in this saga. According to Worldometers, Italy has the highest concentration, as a country, of cases, with 250 per million people. Shetland meanwhile has 6 cases out of 21000, beating Italy with 285 cases per million. Right about now, a cruise ship is docking in Shetland, having come from Iceland, where they have 117 cases out of 364,260 of a population. A concentration even higher than Shetland.

Tomorrow morning, that cruise ship docks in Orkney. Present count of cases here is zero. The ship will disgorge all its passengers to congregate (a lot more than 500) and pass on their lurgies.

Many folk have protested to the council through Radio Orkney, the Orcadian and social media, to no avail. Money for the harbours department is apparently more important than the health of elderly Orcadians.

Once it's here, it's just a short hop across 'e watter to you folks. So when you get it, you can blame Orkney Islands Council.

aqua

13-Mar-20, 11:51

Disgorging hundreds of cruise ship passengers in a virus free area is surely insane.

Later today, Italy will overtake China to become the country with the highest number of recorded active cases. I expect a huge number of new UK cases be announced today. Meanwhile, Beijing sounds good:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-51857424

orkneycadian

13-Mar-20, 15:04

The simple-minded death rate of 6% came from Worldometers and is defined to be the number of deaths divided by the number of recoveries thus far. It’s probably a significant overestimate of the true figure at this stage of the outbreak, although it’s heading upwards due to the (nominal?) high death rate in Italy.

To me, that seems a more accurate way that the governments favoured one, which is number of deaths / number of cases. That conveniently assumes that everyone who actively has it at the time of the calculation, will recover, and will not die. Which is a bit naive. Rather bluntly, it does seem that you are confirmed dead quicker than you are confirmed recovered. But as time progresses, then that will start to settle out.

35181
and seems to have bottomed out at 6% (the orange line) and is starting a slight swing back up at 7% at the moment. That graph shows well the effect that time has in averaging out the values. The same calculation for Italy at the moment gives 45%. But that is relatively new data, and too will settle out as people are declared "recovered" and averaging takes effect.

aqua

13-Mar-20, 15:17

Agreed on all counts. If the published data is accurate, I first thought that the two methods would put upper and lower limits on the mortality rate, but the upper limits will be unreliable if a significant fraction of the seriously ill eventually die after a long period of illness. I have no idea how (un)likely this is.

I’ve been looking at those plots too, and I’m sure you’re right about having to wait to get an accurate mortality rate. Look at the plot for Italy, it was all over the place for a while, whereas the rate is now smooth but rising!

orkneycadian

13-Mar-20, 17:26

Seems that Orkney Islands Council are hell bent on bringing it to Orkney early.

https://www.orcadian.co.uk/cruise-ship-set-to-land-in-kirkwall-despite-public-concern/

orkneycadian

13-Mar-20, 20:28

Seems we can put the pitchforks and water cannon away. The cruise company have announced they are cancelling. Less than 1 hour after Orkney Islands Council put out a statement saying that they had not given any consideration whatsoever to closing ports to cruise liners. Doughballs.

aqua

13-Mar-20, 21:42

Great news. I just hope they’re not diverting the cruise ship to Scrabster!

orkneycadian

13-Mar-20, 22:46

Nope, left Shetland, heading back to Tilbury to disembark all the afflicted there.

The Horseman

13-Mar-20, 23:55

FYI.......82 Countries with over 1Billion souls.......Yes, with One Billion people have not reported anyone afflicted......
Remember that in the Analysis!

Fulmar

14-Mar-20, 12:14

There is no evidence that anyone on that cruise ship was infected orkneycadian. Iceland has cases, so does the UK and people from the UK are going all over as per usual on the regular ferries and disembarking in Orkney. Your island relies heavily on tourism and are you planning to turn everyone away for months to come?

orkneycadian

14-Mar-20, 12:54

Yes, our island(s) relies(y) heavily on tourism. But real tourism, not the kind the council have manufactured. Cruise liner passengers benefit very few, apart from Marine Services, an arms length company owned by the council. But they claim that money raised within Marine Services is ringfenced, and cannot be spent elsewhere. So they can afford new pilot boats (built in Spain) and tugs (built in Turkey), but cannot spend it on new ferries for the public to use. Sure, there are a small number of locals that benefit - Bus operators, tour guides and the likes. But the vast majority see no benefit whatsoever, and in fact only see disruption. Local shops sell very little to them - The odd trinket perhaps - Local cafes and restaurants don't do well from them - The passengers eat all they can at breakfast on the ship and fill their pockets with fruit and croissants to see them through the day, then go back aboard at night for their all inclusive banquets. Local cafe owners complain that they come into their premises, buy 1 small coffee, then sit for 3 hours hogging the tables and wifi whilst they upload all their holiday selfies. People who sell postcards complain that the cruise liner passengers take post cards out of racks, photograph them, then put them back in the wrong place.

Meanwhile, over at the "tourist attractions" (5000 year old bits of stone covered in moss....), the real tourists, the ones that come here for a week or 2, spend their money locally on accommodation, restaurants, etc, are not allowed in, as the sites have been block booked for the cruise passengers. They then go home and tell their friends not to bother to come to Orkney - Its overrun with cruise passengers who squeezed them out of everywhere.

There is for sure rejoicing going on all over Orkney this morning, that the scourge of the cruise liners has at least been delayed till the 4th of April, when the next one is due. That's the same one that was due today, so that too may be cancelled.

We see the same issues here as Venice and Dubrovnik, albeit on a smaller scale. Many folk say that Orkney is now "ruined" as a holiday destination, and thats before the first case of coronavirus. Indeed, there may be no evidence that anyone was infected on the Magellan, but with people being infections for 5 days before the symptoms show, how would we know? And now that the UK has effectively abolished testing, unless you are already hospitalised, then the Medical Declarations that the ships are supposed to present mean nothing. And yes, the ferries and planes are still running as normal, at the moment. Should we suspend them for all but freight? Possibly. But there, there is a much greater balancing act between bio security and economic disruption. Much more than will ever be the case with the cruise passengers spending, we understand, less than £10 a head on their shore visits.

Neil Howie

14-Mar-20, 13:21

I’ve been looking at those plots too, and I’m sure you’re right about having to wait to get an accurate mortality rate. Look at the plot for Italy, it was all over the place for a while, whereas the rate is now smooth but rising!

Yeah 4 weeks ago Italy had 3 cases, now it according to Worldstats it has 2,547 new cases and 250 new deaths. Highest number of deaths per day in the world ever (including China at its peak) has been reported in Italy in each of the last four days.

Newt Gingrich living in Italy writes for Foxnews (https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/italy-coronavirus-us-response-newt-gingrich):

The coronavirus is out of control of in Northern Italy. As of 6 pm local / 1 pm EST on March 10, there were 15,113 total cases in Italy, with 12,839 active cases, 1,016 deaths, and 1,258 recoveries. There are 162 total cases here in Rome.

The hardest-hit region around Milan has had to improvise as its health system has been deeply stressed by the sheer number of patients. In Milan and Brescia, field hospitals have been set up in the fairgrounds as the local hospitals have been drowned in patients.

Because the demand for respirators and intensive care has been beyond any previous planning, doctors have been forced into the kind of triage thinking developed for intense battlefield casualty situations. There are reports that emergency room doctors are allotting respirators to those with higher life expectancy due to the limited equipment in the hardest-hit areas of the province. If you are older or have other illnesses, you may simply not be eligible for treatment.

Fulmar

14-Mar-20, 14:21

The UK has not abolished testing- where did you get that from?

Neil Howie

14-Mar-20, 14:24

FYI.......82 Countries with over 1Billion souls.......Yes, with One Billion people have not reported anyone afflicted......
Remember that in the Analysis!

At this stage there are still many positives.

Sorry link requires subscription that I don't have.

Coronavirus: Scots scientist says vaccine trials set for next month (https://www.scotsman.com/health/coronavirus-scots-scientist-says-vaccine-trials-set-next-month-2072413)The Scottish scientist responsible for developing a global vaccine to combat the deadly coronavirus has said it will be available for clinical trials on humans next month.

Neil Howie

14-Mar-20, 14:25

The UK has not abolished testing- where did you get that from?

It refers to the situation in Italy and the link to the article is there.

orkneycadian

14-Mar-20, 14:37

The UK has not abolished testing- where did you get that from?

And now that the UK has effectively abolished testing, unless you are already hospitalised

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public
What to do if you have symptomsStay at home for 7 days if you have either:

a high temperature
a new continuous cough

This will help to protect others in your community while you are infectious.
Do not go to a GP surgery, pharmacy or hospital.
You do not need to contact NHS 111 to tell them you’re staying at home.
We will not be testing people who are self-isolating with mild symptoms.

orkneycadian

14-Mar-20, 14:50

I reckon we are now entering a period where the stats will start to get a bit less relevant, especially for the UK. If the only folk being tested are those that have been hospitalised, because their symptoms have deteriorated whilst self isolating as per the guidance, then what was previously "confirmed cases" will become the tip of the iceberg, with all the folk that stay at home and have mild symptoms, being totally off the radar. I expect we will have much more of "estimated cases" if they are even mentioned at all.

This will likely make the mortality rate look worse than it is. At present, deaths divided by total cases with an outcome is around 7%. I guess the deaths will always be reported, but all the cases where folk recover at home, and never even do as much as call 111 will go unrecorded. This will create an artificially high mortality rate on sites like Worldometers. But possibly, enough data has passed through there to see that the mortality rate is stubbornly hanging around the 6 or 7% mark.

orkneycadian

14-Mar-20, 15:06

I also suspect we may be entereing a phase of massively blocked drains and sewers.....

https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2020/03/14/13/25965672-8111897-Panic_buying_Britons_are_seen_in_a_London_Tesco_th is_morning_sto-a-2_1584192505250.jpg

So this guy with the rucksack couldn't get bog roll, so has stocked up on "Plenty" kitchen roll. Will do the job he intends it for, but will not break down when wet, and will do a grand job of blocking the drains!

Neil Howie

14-Mar-20, 15:20

Not mine:)

35186

Goodfellers

14-Mar-20, 17:16

I can see why 'isolated' comunities don't want visitors.

I'm booked for the IOM TT in June, organisers say it will still go ahead come what may, but locals don't want it to happen, health services could not cope, so they have started a petition to ban this years event. It will cost me a fair bit if cancelled, but I fully understand why locals may not welcome us.

https://www.three.fm/news/isle-of-man-news/petition-to-cancel-tt-gaining-momentum/?fbclid=IwAR1XEkLzPXCM8t8qQ0HJo7PY03waxiGGtQDjOJ3M kffZvpkgU1YOupVmrtk

aqua

15-Mar-20, 11:27

People who understand data are at last making significant noises that are being covered in the media:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51892402

Here are a few relevant links in one place.

The letter from practising scientists is here:

http://maths.qmul.ac.uk/~vnicosia/UK_scientists_statement_on_coronavirus_measures.pd f

The detailed analysis of the data they reference is here:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

It gives a very detailed analysis of the growth and spread of the virus, plus an analysis of why the death rate is so different at different times and in different countries.

The open letter from Italian scientists is here:

https://left.it/2020/03/13/covid_19-open-letter-from-italy-to-the-international-scientific-community/

I’m going to email local politicians (MP and MSP probably) to ‘demand’ more urgent action. I urge everyone who reads these reports and agrees with the conclusions to do the same.

aqua

15-Mar-20, 11:38

To summarise the conclusions referred to above:

Unless the government(s) force(s) more ‘social distancing’ NOW, the country’s hospitals will be overwhelmed in a week or so, and the death rate could be four times higher than it would be if they took action now.

Not only would the death rate be much lower, the total number of deaths in a given period would be reduced much further because far fewer people would have the virus in the first place!

That’s a lot of lives saved!

There may not be any cases in Caithness yet, but there surely will be soon.

orkneycadian

15-Mar-20, 12:30

Alas, the time for action was long ago. Borders should have been closed months ago. But no, its "Think of the economic impact - An little Johnny really wants to go on the school trip to Italy".

Instead, we now have the economic impact, little Johnny's school trip cancelled, and lots of old folk pegging out in hospitals that are rapidly overloading. For years, people have warned of the impact of porous borders, and this is the outcome. Old folk being told they may have to stay at home, no visitors for 4 months. And that's just to avoid the threat of death. Freedom of movement huh?

orkneycadian

15-Mar-20, 12:37

Neil Howie

15-Mar-20, 13:35

I see that China are now 17th in the league table of "cases per million of a population" and about to drop into 18th place when the Netherlands shortly overtake them. UK still in 28th place, but no doubt will pass China in the near future.I also see that China are very close to having less total cases than "the rest of the world". All according to published statistics, which we know are likely to drift more and more in the future as countries become less able to quantify their outbreaks.

China now worried about catching it back from the West.

Nice to see them donating equipment, supplies to Italy too.

ROME (Reuters) (https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-respirators/china-sends-medical-supplies-experts-to-help-italy-battle-coronavirus-idUKKBN2101IM) - A planeload of medical supplies, including masks and respirators, has arrived in Italy from China to help it deal with its growing coronavirus crisis.

It's sad that the likely reliable indicator will be the mortality rate. Saw this bit on the BBC news today, linked from Yahoo (https://au.news.yahoo.com/grim-addition-to-italian-newspaper-shows-toll-of-coronavirus-053504402.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAANfNWadcf44NhQqOwU6uXBFDiT10 sdyaE8Ai5CQ6G4U0ObrzSnmy10arIIfuQYMMYIYjwhsqS5OCGo Be4llJ_2FQYFUpGyy0M904nQs6KQ-jPHNhpKB0YwuSOrCWzjNv1z_z82tm6Mi-ED0u3P8b1_Z1-d592DlEgA7MDPA7tI8C)

A single page of obituaries is seen with photos of the deceased followed by another half a page.
He then opens Friday’s edition of the same newspaper.
Mr Locatelli counts 10 pages, one by one, of obituaries.

Neil Howie

15-Mar-20, 14:27

meanwhile in the uk

35193

Cheltenham Festival 2020

Corky Smeek

15-Mar-20, 16:27

I thought that the US ban on flights from EU26 came into effect yesterday.

The image below is a screen grab from planefinder.net (https://planefinder.net/) at about 15h15 today.

35194

There are still dozens of flights in the air. I checked, and many are just freight but many more are passenger flights from all over Europe including Italy. For example, Alitalia Flight AZ630 is currently on its way from Rome to Miami. These flights can't all be full of Americans going home surely.

ScottishWalrus

15-Mar-20, 17:41

3OOOO dead in the US so far this year from influenza against 30 dead from coronovirus and twelve of those from the same old folks home!

Are we panicking about the right virus??? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UgXJQPC3Ro8

Fulmar

15-Mar-20, 18:22

Alrock

15-Mar-20, 19:09

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xZbKHDPPrrc

The Horseman

15-Mar-20, 23:35

Think it depends how old you are and what your state of general health happens to be. I am not panicked but I am concerned, like everyone else I should imagine. I can be vaccinated against flu (and I am) but not against this coronavirus as yet. I am glad of the approach in Scotland and feel well informed by the Scottish Government and generally supportive of the measure in the UK.

Let me change my intro!
**********The CDC states that vaccination may prevent up to 50% of the infections. There is a newer/ stronger vaccination for over 65’s., which May assist, but nothing is guaranteed
Of course one must take stats into account...
So far this year in America, there have been 30,000 deaths associated to ‘common flu, whereas Covid19 is attributed to approx 30 deaths...now 60!
I am not diminishing the situation, but when panic sets in it stresses people out, weakening their Immune Systems, thus making one more susceptible to ill effects.
The facts are set out by the Centre for Disease Control. I didn’t make them up.

The Horseman

16-Mar-20, 00:36

It’s time the Western World did what occurred in China.
Lock every infected person in their Hospital/Internment camps which they built in approx 7 days.
We are so far behind these ‘poor people’!
The Chinese are so far advanced.... In Canada/North America they send people home to ‘self isolate’ and then those people go to concerts etc and infect so many others.
There is a lot to say about an ‘Authoritarian Regime’....they get the job done.

orkneycadian

16-Mar-20, 09:18

Fulmar

16-Mar-20, 09:23

No one is vaccinated against the flu!??????
I am and so is every nurse and doctor in the NHS.

aqua

16-Mar-20, 09:44

I think exponential curves, and logarithmic scales are lost on some.... :(
They will learn the hard way as this thing gets worse.

No one is vaccinated against the flu!??????
I am and so is every nurse and doctor in the NHS.
I think he was trying to say that flu vaccines reduce the risk of flu illness by about 50%.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/vaccineeffect.htm

The Horseman

16-Mar-20, 09:53

Thank you Aqua. That is what I said.
We can be on the same page’!

orkneycadian

16-Mar-20, 12:26

They will learn the hard way as this thing gets worse.

The below video of toppling dominoes might help them.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c6KNAKSe7Dg

The starting dominoes running round the outside are toppling linearly. The rate of topple is consistent. When the triangle kicks off, the rate of topple increases by 1 on each row.

We are still somewhere up near the peak of the triangle with the "So what, more folk die of seasonal flu" mentality. The same mentatlity that assumes that the whole triangle of dominoes will somehow be prevented from toppling.

mi16

16-Mar-20, 13:23

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xZbKHDPPrrc

valuable input.
In other words, so be it?

Fulmar

16-Mar-20, 14:40

Actually, that is not the full picture with regard to flu vaccination as there is good evidence that vaccination reduces the severity of symptoms and duration of the illness if one is infected and also, possibly provides some protection against other strains of flu. It is to be hoped that any vaccine developed for covid 19 will achieve at least that and hopefully much more, especially since some scientists believe that this will be an ongoing, annual disease.

Goodfellers

16-Mar-20, 17:25

I see Rock Rose gin have made hand sanitiser and given it free to doctors surgeries and care homes.

Well done to them.

Fulmar

16-Mar-20, 17:35

Yes, brilliant and I believe the gin is very good too!

mi16

16-Mar-20, 17:43

I see Rock Rose gin have made hand sanitiser and given it free to doctors surgeries and care homes.

Well done to them.

great touch

Goodfellers

16-Mar-20, 17:56

Am I the only one who wonders what it tastes like? :)

mi16

16-Mar-20, 18:18

Am I the only one who wonders what it tastes like? :)

Coffee...
Or should that be coughy

Fulmar

16-Mar-20, 18:36

Well that's us on way to a lock down now.

orkneycadian

16-Mar-20, 18:50

China now looks pretty much like an "also ran" in this carry on. 18th in the league table of Cases per Million of Population, less than half of the cases in the world and daily new cases in the low double digits.

I think I would rather drink hand sanitiser than gin. Isn't there a "distillery" in Caithness that makes something like "It would bring tears to a crofters eyes"? My guess is it probably would. There used to be a small "craft" distillery on Orkney made "Crofters Choice" whisky. Or as it became known "It'll do if you don't have any meths"

mi16

17-Mar-20, 08:32

I’m not sure I’d describe the reason we are facing this pandemic as an also ran.

Fulmar

17-Mar-20, 09:17

Lets not forget where this all started and which draconian regime suppressed all knowledge of it at first and allowed its citizens and others to continue 'business as usual' so that now, the whole world is affected. That is fact and its not the first time either.

mi16

17-Mar-20, 10:23

when and if we get over this, some questions need to be asked of China regarding this matter

Goodfellers

17-Mar-20, 16:42

This is meant to be humerous, not offensive to anyone. 35199

mi16

17-Mar-20, 17:14

was just saying this to the other half he other day, its absolutely true.
Probably the right thing to do also, every man for himself and all that

orkneycadian

17-Mar-20, 19:55

Lets not forget where this all started and which draconian regime suppressed all knowledge of it at first and allowed its citizens and others to continue 'business as usual'

I don't think its Chinas fault that coutries like the UK decided to continue "business as usual". The UK had ample opportunity to close its borders, even after the outbreak in China. But the we had to have open and porous borders. China had nothing to do with that. If the UK had "proper borders", then we would not be in today's situation.

Corky Smeek

17-Mar-20, 20:41

I thought Unionists didn't want Borders. https://twitter.com/votenoborders?lang=en

orkneycadian

17-Mar-20, 23:56

So in much of the world, the horse has already bolted and is running at full canter. All we can do now is sit back and marvel at the hysteria as the sheeple try to catch it - Rather comically, using toilet roll.

Even here in Orkney its out of hand. Folk are panic buying everything from coal to bottled water. And its not going to make a blind bit of difference at this stage. Its now going to be what it will be. Best we can hope for is to see how many come out the other side, and then we can look back and realise that borders have a function after all. Unfortunately, there might not be so many of us who can look back - Sure, the population will still have grown - But some of the oldies will have gone, and the babies less than a year old will have no appreciation of the situation.

Hopefully, it will go down as lesson learned.

orkneycadian

18-Mar-20, 00:16

Having a mild interest in numbers and statistics, and now that the published stats are really starting to drift from reality - Realistic number of UK cases is likely to be in the 100,000 region, rather than the claimed 2,000 - I thought it might be fun to review the growth in statistics;

35200

mi16

18-Mar-20, 10:23

I thought Unionists didn't want Borders. https://twitter.com/votenoborders?lang=en

Bore off mate

Corky Smeek

18-Mar-20, 10:28

Bore off mate

Just exposing hypocrisy, that's all.

mi16

18-Mar-20, 12:58

Just exposing hypocrisy, that's all.

why not keep your independence stuff to your independence threads.

Corky Smeek

18-Mar-20, 15:23

Another SNP clusterf...

You mean like this utterly non-political post. Nothing but hypocrisy all the time.

mi16

18-Mar-20, 16:43

You mean like this utterly non-political post. Nothing but hypocrisy all the time.

was a valid response to the OP statement re the kids hospital in Edinburgh, which was some 8 pages back.

Corky Smeek

18-Mar-20, 17:02

was a valid response to the OP statement re the kids hospital in Edinburgh, which was some 8 pages back.

That was in a thread entitled "Coronavirus". You brought the SNP into the discussion, in the second post on the thread, not me.

mi16

18-Mar-20, 17:15

The Chinese don't hang about when they set their minds to it;

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7924249/Chinese-builders-work-day-night-turn-field-coronavirus-hospital-WEEK.html

Hundreds of heavy-duty vehicles and armies of workers are gathered overnight as China vows to build a 1,000-bed coronavirus hospital from scratch in ONE WEEK

How long have they been at the Sick Kids Hospital in Edinburgh, and when does it open?

Just for Corky, I dont care about the thread title, this was the opening post, and my reply was and still is valid in relation to that.

Now the thread has developed over the months to have no bearing on any independence argument you may have, so kindly, as requested before, please bore off elsewhere

Corky Smeek

18-Mar-20, 17:39

I dont care about the thread title

If that's true why are you getting so upset?

mi16

18-Mar-20, 17:46

If that's true why are you getting so upset?

Upset?
No, sorry I dont follow your thinking, thankfully

Goodfellers

18-Mar-20, 18:22

35201 Apparently half of us will be dead this time next week......a bit of humour to lighten the mood :)

Alrock

18-Mar-20, 19:09

35201

Reminds me off...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i-PZ4Qy5F0Q

Goodfellers

18-Mar-20, 19:48

Reminds me off...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i-PZ4Qy5F0Q

That was actually quite satisfying watching him make that!

Neil Howie

19-Mar-20, 01:07

Some good news:

Coronavirus: Experiment in northern Italian town halts all new infections after trial

From Sky news (https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-experiment-in-northern-italian-town-halts-all-new-infections-after-trial-11959587)

It's like the WHO said - (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-51916707/who-head-our-key-message-is-test-test-test) WHO head: 'Our key message is: test, test, test'

He said it is not possible to "fight a fire blindfolded", and social distancing measures and handwashing will not alone extinguish the epidemic.

aqua

19-Mar-20, 15:28

That’s obviously the way to go. It’s evidently doable in a small town, and the Chinese, South Koreans and Singaporeans have done it for cities. Can we do it? Surely we must try.

orkneycadian

20-Mar-20, 01:24

Well, you can try if you like. But the time for action was months ago. That window of opportunity has now passed, and only now are folk thinking about it.

When folk can't even be trusted to buy bog roll responsibly, there's no chance of them behaving responsibly in a lockdown.

And if forced to lockdown, then all we will hear of is infringement of civil liberties and Human Rights.

It's like having a castle with a moat around it. Its best defence, when an aggressive attacker rides over the hill, is to pull up the drawbridge and keep the attacker at least the width of the moat away. Our drawbridge is still down, and column after column of the enemy continue to ride in and massacre the occupants of the castle. Meanwhile, the occupants are preoccupied with buying toilet roll. At that stage, pulling up the drawbridge is rather futile.

The Horseman

20-Mar-20, 01:44

Yes, you are correct.
Just reading about perhaps over 100,000 in Southern Florida partying on the beach over the March break.
No one is listening......people left Canada and went to Southern Countries with a warning not to go.
Now the Borders are closed and they are calling for emergency flights home....And the Insurance Companies have notified them that their Insurance is being cancelled in less than 10 days.
Totally irresponsible!

Alrock

20-Mar-20, 03:37

Scary Stuff...

Coronavirus: 'They call it the apocalypse' - inside Italy's hardest-hit hospital (http://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-they-call-it-the-apocalypse-inside-italys-hardest-hit-hospital-11960597)

Goodfellers

20-Mar-20, 10:00

Just been out for my paper. Streams of people going into Lidl, buying anything edable. No one is going to stop 'panic' buying until the shelves have food on them again. It's a vicious cycle.

Government and CEO's telling us there is plenty of food in the supply chain. No one believes you.

Use the army to transport foodstuffs and a few soldiers with each delivery to restock shelves and one or two burly sqaddies by the tills to makes sure customers only buy one of everything.

It really will become survival of the fittest soon.

Ps anyone know how to kill and butcher a sheep....just for future reference.

Alrock

20-Mar-20, 10:13

...Ps anyone know how to kill and butcher a sheep....just for future reference.

You provide a sheep & I'll give it a go, plenty of videos on YouTube.

orkneycadian

20-Mar-20, 10:44

I can just see it now. Ravenous townies, down to their last 3 pallets of pasta, hacking open a sheep, spewing on the spot then wondering why it isnt full of oven ready cuts on polystyrene trays.

Goodfellers

20-Mar-20, 10:54

I can just see it now. Ravenous townies, down to their last 3 pallets of pasta, hacking open a sheep, spewing on the spot then wondering why it isnt full of oven ready cuts on polystyrene trays.

That wont be too far from the truth!. When I ran a poultry farm we had organised groups visit every now and then. Kids were horrified to actually watch a hot wet egg come out of a hens backside. They swore they would never eat another one.

Corky Smeek

20-Mar-20, 21:52

Some sound advice.

35202

orkneycadian

21-Mar-20, 08:49

So the predicted utter farce descends upon the UK. Governments promising vast amounts of cash they don't have, in exchange for a request to internally suffer massive disruption. Meanwhile, on the borders.....

35203
OK, not all of those inbound flights are for the UK - Some are overflying and heading for France, Germany, Switczerland, etc. And to think, all this disruption could have been avoided if we had simply stopped people entering the country. Thats all, nothing more. But they said that doing that would have "an economic impact". Ah-ha.

orkneycadian

22-Mar-20, 14:35

The UK's position in the league table of "Cases per 1 million of population" = 44th
China's position = 54th

The only position China has at the top of any list now is total number of cases as an individual country. And will likely lose that spot to Italy in less than a week.

But still folk think they can change the outcome of Coronavirus at this ridiculously late stage.

carrepairman

22-Mar-20, 17:09

This idea of Tesco`s to allow a priority hour to the over 70`s and NHS staff etc can not possibily work, The store opens at 6am so the store is immeadiatly full of shoppers, So come 9am there is nowt left. Then do they chuck everyone out of the store for an hour? No they do not.

orkneycadian

22-Mar-20, 17:45

..... Tesco`s...... The store opens at 6am

At last! :D The perpetual question that this forum has been asking for the last 10 years has been answered! Admin, can the above post be pinned so that the question need never be asked again?

Alrock

22-Mar-20, 19:42

At last! :D The perpetual question that this forum has been asking for the last 10 years has been answered! Admin, can the above post be pinned so that the question need never be asked again?

Only for Wickers... 7am here in Thurso.

Fulmar

25-Mar-20, 16:36

Interesting read in the FT:
https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

Alrock

25-Mar-20, 17:58

Interesting read in the FT:
https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

Hidden behind a paywall, C&P please.

aqua

26-Mar-20, 15:49

I followed Fulmar’s link and also hit the paywall.

Then I Googled ‘Coronavirus may have infected half of UK population — Oxford study’.

This avoided the paywall, at least for me.

The result of the Oxford study isn’t popular amongst other scientists:

https://www.livescience.com/amp/half-the-uk-infected-coronavirus-covid19.html

It’s hard to know what to think when professional epidiomologists at leading universities come up with such disparate models!

We need data. We need to test, test, test, and then test some more. Like they do in China.

Fulmar

26-Mar-20, 18:09

We need data. We need to test, test, test, and then test some more.

Absolutely!

aqua

26-Mar-20, 22:36

Absolutely indeed! And when that testing is finished - test even more!

This particular amateur epidemiologist read and approved of an article in the Guardian by real epidemiologist Adam Kucharski of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/26/virus-infection-data-coronavirus-modelling

Neil Howie

27-Mar-20, 00:10

I would not be against supermarkets reserving items or areas for NHS staff either, though that might be a bit difficult to manage

Neil Howie

27-Mar-20, 00:17

Curious study from Iceland.

Although some sites are taking away the headline that there could be a lot of asymptomatic people out there, it was a surprise to me that they found -

40 coronavirus mutations among infected people in the country.

but more worryingly (real word)

A single person has been found to be infected with two variants of new coronavirus.

I wonder if the exposure to multiple strains is what is killing young-ish healthy doctors and nurses in other countries ?

I hope this link works! Google translated Icelandic newspaper (https://www.information.dk/indland/2020/03/forskere-sporet-40-mutationer-coronavirus-alene-paa-island)

aqua

27-Mar-20, 12:42

Interesting. Thanks for posting it.

I followed the link, which led to the original Danish(?) version. I fed it to Google translate by hand.

I was aware that coronaviruses mutate rapidly, which is why we don’t have a vaccine for the common cold, but I had no idea just how rapidly. I would guess that contracting two variants of the virus could be much worse than one, but I’ll not speculate because I really don’t know enough about all this.

Mutations are not necessarily bad because they tend to cause the virus population to grow to be less harmful. The most harmful mutations don’t spread as rapidly because they immobilise their host, who becomes unable to move around and thereby unable to spread the more dangerous version. This is why the most dangerous viruses are less difficult to contain. Covid-19 is bad because it sits in the middle, it kills a small fraction so it can still spread like crazy.

Well, that’s my understanding. I’m happy to be corrected by the more knowledgeable.

aqua

27-Mar-20, 13:39

Corky Smeek

27-Mar-20, 15:51

The view from El Diablo in Bath (aka Wings Over Scotland)

https://wingsoverscotland.com/lets-not-kill-ourselves/

Goodfellers

27-Mar-20, 17:27

The view from El Diablo in Bath (aka Wings Over Scotland)

https://wingsoverscotland.com/lets-not-kill-ourselves/

I've got to agree with that, driving to somewhere to walk or exercise your dog should be allowed, most information online and info from police says it is not allowed (just googled 'can i drive to a beauty spot to walk') Top answer below
https://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/health/coronavirus/am-i-allowed-drive-somewhere-exercise-or-walk-my-dog-uk-rules-driving-exercise-and-dog-walking-during-lockdown-explained-2519615

Needs making much clearer whether you can or can't.

Neil Howie

28-Mar-20, 01:14

I thought this was an unusually high number, continue to seek an explanation:

ROME - Day after day the list of doctors who died on the field for Covid-19 is growing. And the total rises to 51.

link (https://www.repubblica.it/cronaca/2020/03/27/news/coronavirus_situazione_italia-252433461/)
You may have to post the link into google and then select "translate this page"

aqua

28-Mar-20, 13:58

Yes, it’s a high number indeed. I wonder what the infection rate is amongst medical staff.

Fulmar

28-Mar-20, 15:17

''In Italy, a 101-year-old man who tested positive for Covid-19 has recovered''
I read this on BBC site and felt it was something positive.

aqua

28-Mar-20, 15:19

I saw that too. Fantastic!

Corky Smeek

28-Mar-20, 15:41

There's this too:-

35204

Goodfellers

30-Mar-20, 08:50

Good to see police south of the border are taking this out break seriously
35205

35206 Nice that they have a decent sense of humour!

Fulmar

30-Mar-20, 11:27

I heard on the news just now that a guy got tasered for coughing over officers and claiming that he had the virus. He was tested and he was thankfully negative but let's hope that message gets out to those who need to hear it. Cough over us and we'll zap you!

aqua

01-Apr-20, 22:35

Absolutely wrong': how UK's coronavirus test strategy unravelled

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/01/absolutely-wrong-how-uk-coronavirus-test-strategy-unravelled

This is the Guardian’s view on the UK government’s strategy for dealing with the virus. In brief, the government was wrong about everything.

The Horseman

02-Apr-20, 00:54

No matter what, ‘every’ Gov’t is wrong.
No one is ever correct, whatever the outcome.
Its like Politics encroaches on everything that’s done, good or bad!

aqua

02-Apr-20, 10:12

The countries that have been most successful in containing the virus and saving lives have big testing programmes. We need to test, isolate those with positive tests, track down their contacts and test them. This is what China did. And South Korea did. And Taiwan. And Germany to some extent.

The government has listened too much to the mathematical modellers. It should have listened to the medical practitioners. This sounds like Dominic Cummings’ influence.

Corky Smeek

07-Apr-20, 12:22

I take the point about mathematical modelling but I think this article shows its worth. it makes for fascinating, if rather sobering, reading.

I saw it on Angus MacNeil MP's Twitter - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hell-coming-mathematical-proof-185019616.html

aqua

09-Apr-20, 18:25

Thanks for the link.

That guy’s prediction for the US death toll on 7 April was uncannily accurate! Probably because he used real data rather than putting in so-called reasonable assumptions that turned out to be very wrong, which is what many government advisors did, as far as I can tell.

Did you see this article in The Guardian a few days ago?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/uk-will-be-europes-worst-hit-by-coronavirus-study-predicts

The UK government advisor from Imperial College claims (at least some of) the recent input data is wrong. Perhaps, but I don’t trust his judgement after his initial errors. Hopefully, the real numbers will be closer to the lowest estimate of the American team. We’ll find out soon enough.

Corky Smeek

09-Apr-20, 20:16

Jeez, that makes depressing reading.

The three reasons given for the projected high level of death are a shocking indictment of HMGs level of unpreparedness. That is particularly so in the light of Exercise Cygnus (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exercise_Cygnus) in 2016 which was designed to help us prepare for an event such as this. It seems that the results of that exercise were "buried" by HMG. John Pilger's piece in the Daily Telegraph (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/28/exercise-cygnus-uncovered-pandemic-warnings-buried-government/) is worth reading if you can face yet more bleak news.

It would appear that the results from Exercise Cygnus were so catastrophically frightening that HMG suppressed the report for fear of causing alarm. That might be fair enough (arguably) but the failure to act properly upon the outcome of that exercise will, undoubtedly, have caused people their lives. Pilger calls what has (not) happened a crime. However, since the finding of Exercise Cygnus are still classified I doubt we will ever see anyone held responsible.

aqua

09-Apr-20, 20:52

Depressing indeed. As is the Telegraph piece.

I still believe that the principal cause of the delay in imposing the lockdown was the complete lack of understanding of the dire consequences of exponential growth at all levels of government, which is what orkneycadian has been stressing from the beginning. Incredible as it sounds, it also seems that the bigwig in the Imperial team didn’t understand until it was too late. As someone said recently, a linear response to exponential growth will always lose. We needed to kill off the exponential growth early on, which we failed to do. Hopefully, the lockdown will eventually succeed in killing it off. We will know in a week or two. I hope!

aqua

09-Apr-20, 20:54

Oh, and those that did understand the consequences of exponential growth apparently underestimated the size of the exponent. Given the data we already had from China, and also early data from Italy, this was unforgivable in my opinion.

Gronnuck

10-Apr-20, 08:27

The three reasons given for the projected high level of death are a shocking indictment of HMGs level of unpreparedness. That is particularly so in the light of Exercise Cygnus (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exercise_Cygnus) in 2016 which was designed to help us prepare for an event such as this. It seems that the results of that exercise were "buried" by HMG. John Pilger's piece in the Daily Telegraph (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/28/exercise-cygnus-uncovered-pandemic-warnings-buried-government/) is worth reading if you can face yet more bleak news.

It would appear that the results from Exercise Cygnus were so catastrophically frightening that HMG suppressed the report for fear of causing alarm. That might be fair enough (arguably) but the failure to act properly upon the outcome of that exercise will, undoubtedly, have caused people their lives. Pilger calls what has (not) happened a crime. However, since the finding of Exercise Cygnus are still classified I doubt we will ever see anyone held responsible.

John Pilger has always been at the forefront of investigative journalism, he gets better with age; that's why his revelations are almost toxic to our MSM which is, in the main. the propaganda arm of the tory government. I doubt this government will ever reveal the true extent of the damage revealed by Exercise Cygnus.

jimbews

10-Apr-20, 10:08

aqua

10-Apr-20, 11:04

John Pilger has always been at the forefront of investigative journalism, he gets better with age; that's why his revelations are almost toxic to our MSM which is, in the main. the propaganda arm of the tory government. I doubt this government will ever reveal the true extent of the damage revealed by Exercise Cygnus.
I forgot to mention in my previous post that the article in the Telegraph is credited to Paul Nuki and Bill Gardner. Corky, is there also an article by John Pilger?

Corky Smeek

10-Apr-20, 11:30

I forgot to mention in my previous post that the article in the Telegraph is credited to Paul Nuki and Bill Gardner. Corky, is there also an article by John Pilger?

I did read an article by him but for the life of me I can't find it now. I also watched his interview with RT and he covers the same issues. You can view it here (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jt58it26jCs&feature=youtu.be). It makes for pretty depressing viewing.

aqua

12-Apr-20, 11:47

It’s amazing how different people are affected by the virus in such different ways. Kenny Dalglish tested positive after being admitted to hospital for treatment of gallstones. He’s been released as he showed no symptoms.

Corky Smeek

12-Apr-20, 13:46

Corky Smeek

12-Apr-20, 20:09

If you can bear any more bleak news have a look here (https://www.statista.com/statistics/1105914/coronavirus-death-rates-worldwide/).

It's a table showing the worldwide death rates by country. The stat's only cover up to 9 April but already the UK has the 3rd worst percentage death rate. There are a lot of "ifs", "ands" and "buts" about the stats but whichever way you look at them they make for yet more depressing reading.

richardj

13-Apr-20, 01:19

Just thought I would share this video / documentary link https://www.ntd.com/coronavirusfilm.html just in case anyone is interested in the alt theory of the origins of the covid-19 pandemic. In this hour long video is the proposal that the virus was created deliberately, and no it is not a crap pot idea, there is a lot of what appears valid evidence presented to support the theory. Whether it is true or not is definitely a valid question, I suspect it is true.

Fulmar

13-Apr-20, 08:30

It started in a wet meat market in Wuhan having jumped species from wild life- as did SARS.

Corky Smeek

13-Apr-20, 22:44

Draw your own conclusions.

35215

Fulmar

14-Apr-20, 08:27

Perhaps it is because the Scottish Government is adamant that there is not a shortage of PPE supplies in Scotland and that they have got the issue covered?

Corky Smeek

14-Apr-20, 08:56

Perhaps it is because the Scottish Government is adamant that there is not a shortage of PPE supplies in Scotland and that they have got the issue covered?

Or, it could be, as today's National front page headline says, "UK Gov't Told PPE Firms to Prioritise England".

Goodfellers

14-Apr-20, 09:31

Bill Fernie

14-Apr-20, 10:16

Check out John Pilger at http://johnpilger.com/

Film on NHS released.

Goodfellers

14-Apr-20, 10:30

I for one, would be willing to pay an extra 2p tax IF it was ring fenced for the NHS. I remember paying over 30% tax so still nowhere near that level.

Corky Smeek

14-Apr-20, 11:24

The article says 'he SUSPECTS the order came from PHE.....headlines can be very misleading, as you have said before Don't trust the media....any media, they all have their own agenda.

I have just been on Gompels website. They are only taking orders from established customers, not accepting any new customers. Also recent reviews from Welsh customers, which doesn't tie in with the newspaper article.

Nation.Cymru (https://nation.cymru/news/uk-government-telling-companies-not-to-send-ppe-to-wales-and-scotland/) The Times (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-in-scotland-ppe-manufacturers-put-england-first-gqdcsxzb3) The Press & Journal (https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/2143489/scottish-care-workers-lose-out-as-uk-ppe-manufacturers-focus-on-england-leading-care-industry-figure-claims/) The Daily Record (https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/anger-claims-ppe-not-being-21860353)

I don't know much about the first publication but the others are all pretty anti-SG and are very unlikely to publish something like this unless there was some truth in it.

Goodfellers

14-Apr-20, 12:14

You have taught me to never trust the MSM....does that still stand? :-)

Btw, I don't agree with any country prioritising itself. We are all supposed to be in this together. I'm sure the SG have their own suppliers and arrangements.

Fulmar

14-Apr-20, 12:32

From BBC Scotland website:
Claims that manufacturers of personal protective equipment (PPE) have been prioritising workers in England have been dismissed by the Scottish government's clinical director.
Prof Jason Leitch said suggestions that PPE supplies were being given to NHS and social care staff in England ahead of those in Scotland were "rubbish".

Corky Smeek

14-Apr-20, 12:48

@ Goodfellers & Fulmar. OK, I shall wait and see how the story develops and If I have to back down I will.

@ Goodfellers. If I have "taught" you anything then I am deeply touched and, therefore, hopeful that you are not a lost cause, after all. Maybe one day you will even come and join us over here. You will be made very welcome.

Fulmar

14-Apr-20, 12:54

I think it is to do with private suppliers and the Scottish govt are investigating further.

Corky Smeek

14-Apr-20, 19:10

The Gompels website still has the "England only" message on it. You can find it here (https://www.gompels.co.uk/phe-type-iir-fluid-repellant-surgical-mask-blue-300-pack.html?search=PHE+Type+IIR+Fluid+Repellant+Surg ical+Mask+Blue+300+Pack).

Just in case it "disappears" here is a screen grab of the relevant section of the page in question.

35216

Goodfellers

15-Apr-20, 08:07

If any company has been told by the UK government to prioritise England, why not just put the letter on your website? You think the newspapers/Scottish government would have demanded proof before publishing. Sounds reasonable to me.

Fulmar

15-Apr-20, 08:25

It didn't come from the UK government anyway and the Scottish government are now satisfied over that but want the rules to be made clear to those firms and quite right too.

Goodfellers

15-Apr-20, 09:34

Public Health England were blamed in the earlier post. PHE are a UK govt body https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england

Fulmar

15-Apr-20, 10:37

But they say they did not ever issue such an order so I don't know. The 4 governments have been working together over this and that has been a good thing so hope nothing puts that in jeopardy.

Shabbychic

15-Apr-20, 10:44

This was issued on 10th April by the Department of Health and Social care.

This was a 25 page document, the extract below is para 1.38 on page 17.

"We recognise that the social care sector operates differently to the NHS, and we
need to take different steps to ensure that providers can continue to access PPE.
23 million items of PPE have been released to designated wholesalers for onward
sale to social care providers. We have made arrangements with seven
wholesalers to supply PPE to the social care sector. Careshop, Blueleaf,
Delivernet, Countrywide Healthcare, Nexon Group, Wightman and Parrish and
Gompels will all provide supplies to care providers registered with the Care Quality
Commission"

Care Quality Commission (https://www.cqc.org.uk/?fbclid=IwAR2U0XDiRDMa0IMmh5qtGWuX_DfycXRxjfyIyrm-H7ctxNMUlY2rEw62LSw)....... The Independent regulator of health and social care in England.health and social care in England

Fulmar

15-Apr-20, 11:43

Ok, that looks like an oversight to me and one that wil, I would imagine, be rectified asap. There have been so many mistakes (polite word for it) already, that's for sure.

Corky Smeek

15-Apr-20, 11:47

Well, this story is not going away. The National (https://www.thenational.scot/news/18379518.scottish-government-demands-answers-uk-following-ppe-claims/) from earlier this morning.

Also, Donald Macaskill the Head of Scottish Care has reaffirmed his original claim.

That charade of a news briefing yesterday did nothing to quell my fears. In fact, the question on PPE looked so stage managed I became even more convinced they were trying to hide something.

Oh, and Gompels website message has changed but not by much.

35217

Goodfellers

15-Apr-20, 14:09

Corky Smeek

15-Apr-20, 14:49

Reading all of the above, it seems PHE and CQC only act on behalf of England, so their statements are reasonable in the context of England.

Jeanne Freeman made it clear yesterday that she makes her own arrangements for PPE, not through the UK government (words to that effect).

My question is who have the Scottish govt contracted to supply PPE? If it is any of the companies mentioned, Surely Scotland would be treated as completely separate from England, therefore the CQC registration would not matter as Scotland has Health Protection Scotland and Care Inspectorate to decide how PPE is managed. Could this story be that the supplying companies did not understand that both countries have different systems and that maybe the Scottish government failed to mention it too?

I agree with some of this but have to take issue with other bits.

Gompels still say that to be able to order from them you must be CQC registered. That instantly knocks out all non-English care homes. If you are not in England and CQC registered you cannot buy from Gompels.

Also, I just don't find it credible that PPE suppliers did not know how that the NHS and Care Sectors are devolved and therefore have different systems. It's their business after all. The notion that they did not know something so fundamental isn't really credible in my view.

Clearly the implications of these allegations are profound on many levels. HMG know this and will be doing their utmost to minimise the damage.

Goodfellers

15-Apr-20, 15:02

My view is that it is a misunderstanding somewhere , rather than an attemp to thwart Scoland getting PPE.

If Gompels supply care homes in France, they may have been instructed by the French govt to only supply registered care homes. I think this is probably what's happened. The CQC are only telling Gompels to supply registered care homes (in England), NOT to exclude every other country from obtaining supplies.

Or maybe I'm just naive …. :(

Fulmar

15-Apr-20, 15:48

I have to say, I agree with Goodfellers on this. I think it is incompetence. Thankfully it seems that Scotland does have the PPE but needs to ensure ongoing supply, evidently, so the sooner it is sorted the better.

Corky Smeek

15-Apr-20, 16:54

I have always believed that when faced with a choice between cock-up or conspiracy in 99.9% of cases you should go with cock-up. For the moment, at least, I am prepared not to get too hot under the collar about this as there are many other issues demanding the attention of our politicians. I will be interested to see how the story develops. However,

@ Goodfellers. Even after all the fuss about this the Gompels website is still saying that:-

"...As such this product has a number of restrictions on who can purchase it:

You must be CQC registered and operating in England..."

That seems very clear and unequivocal to me.The issue that still concerns me greatly is why would a business willingly abandon a substantial proportion of its customer base? I cannot think of any reason for this unless it was instructed to do so by government. If you can think of a plausible explanation I'd love to hear it.

Corky Smeek

15-Apr-20, 19:25

The latest statement from Gompels:-

Each day we distribute millions of items of PPE to care settings in Scotland, Wales and England. Our committed team have been working incredibly hard to make sure that everyone who has been a regular customer of Gompels can continue to access the stocks that we can buy in these difficult times.

Stocks of PPE are at a record low in the UK and coronavirus has created massive demand for products that would not normally be widely used in a care setting. This has meant that the usual supply channels are unable to fulfil the requirements. Pandemic flu stocks have been released under the Department of Health & Social Care Covid-19: Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) Plan.

These pandemic English pandemic flu stocks are mandated for supply to CQC registered settings operating in England. Currently there are only 3 products from over 2000 that this relates to. We continue to supply on a daily basis our full range (less these 3 products from Public Health England) to Care providers in Wales and Scotland.

The 3 products referred to are:- coronavirus protective masks, gloves and aprons. These are three vital PPE products and Gompels admits that "stocks of PPE are at a record low". Despite this Gompels states it cannot sell these items to customers in Wales and Scotland.

The stench from this is getting stronger. I cannot begin to imagine the outcry if this were happening in reverse. The MSM would be all over it like a rash. I'm becoming to think this may be the 0.1% where conspiracy is the answer.

Corky Smeek

16-Apr-20, 10:50

Fulmar

16-Apr-20, 11:17

Yes, but Scotland is getting the PPE from elsewhere and the Scottish Government don't seem to be that concerned now?

Fulmar

16-Apr-20, 11:22

Also, (and in the context that we all need some better news), I think it is brilliant that the drugs that may help are even now being trialled in Edinburgh. I hope and pray that some of these really will be found to help and to save lives.
It is stated this morning that 9 out of 10 of those who succumb have underlying health conditions, some more than one thing and also, men are twice as likely to die. There are so many aspects of this that need researching- why are men more likely to die?

Goodfellers

16-Apr-20, 12:10

And so it goes on:- https://twitter.com/BlueleafCare/status/1241288508423180289

Better Together. All in this together. Pooling and Sharing. Except when it's a matter of life and death in which case all you Celts can get to the back of the queue.

Just read the tweet "

https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1214460067162001409/U8iYzbsd_bigger.jpg

(https://twitter.com/BlueleafCare)

Blueleaf (https://twitter.com/BlueleafCare)

@BlueleafCare

(https://twitter.com/BlueleafCare)
·
21 Mar (https://twitter.com/BlueleafCare/status/1241288508423180289)

Stocks of fluid-repellent surgical face masks have been released from the Public Health England pandemic influenza stockpile for Care Providers in England only."

This is a public health England stockpile. Why would PHE release their stockpile to Scottish providers when Jeanne Freeman made it clear that PHE do not buy or distribute on behalf of Scotland. Scotland has it's own suppliers and distribution system.

It looks like some people in Scotland want to make problems where they don't exist.

Goodfellers

16-Apr-20, 12:12

Copying the tweet seems to have messed up my settings, but you can just about make sense of it.

Corky Smeek

16-Apr-20, 12:13

Yes, but Scotland is getting the PPE from elsewhere and the Scottish Government don't seem to be that concerned now?

I'm not so sure that is true. Jeanne Freeman said this yesterday:-

"We are responding to legitimate concerns by a responsible organisation representing majority of care homes in Scotland.".

This issue has not fully played out yet.

Goodfellers

16-Apr-20, 12:19

This story in the P & J is more upsetting. Able to drive 700 miles risking emergency services lives, just because he is wealthy and doesn't accept the law applies to him. He should have a chat with Catherine Calderwood........................

A north community has reacted with anger after a Russian holiday home owner arrived with his family to stay for two weeks.Highland communities have been striving to keep holiday home owners and tourists away to avoid them spreading coronavirus to areas already struggling for medical resources.Entrepreneur Nikolay Gurianov, founder of Kent-based artificial intelligence company Braintree, says he has a very good personal reason for moving his family to the house near Helmsdale, and he has shared this with police.The police say they visited his property on Monday and ‘advice was offered to the residents regarding the importance of following the current guidelines relating to social distancing.’Mr Gurianov said: “We do understand lockdown and we definitely have a reason to be here.“It is not for a holiday.“We did not want to upset the local community, and are not connecting with them as we have brought everything necessary with us for the first two weeks.

“We are quite remote with no neighbours, but anyone who wants to speak to me about it is welcome to come and talk, staying 2m distant of course.”Mr Gurianov added that he felt singled out for criticism.“There are plenty of other holiday home owners here,” he said.Furious local councillor Deirdre Mackay said it was unacceptable in a ward where people have been very respectful and mindful of government advice.She said: “On my daily walk I see the rainbows put up by little children who are confined to their houses.“We have relatives in our care homes who are quarantined to their rooms.“We’re seeing our front line workers setting off every morning to do their best to keep us safe.“Respect for the guidelines is paramount despite the discomfort it’s causing people.“So when they see others moving in, demonstrating a flagrant abuse of the regulations, it’s naturally upsetting.“The rules do not seem to be applied fairly across the piece.”Local MP Jamie Stone said he took a dim view of rich people endangering the life of his constituents, who were all observing lock-down rules.He said: “Any movement that might risk spreading the virus is most unwelcome.“I intend to find out how this happened and make sure they totally self-isolate for the maximum recommended period.”

pat

16-Apr-20, 12:36

One rule for the rich.

How on earth did they manage to drive?? that far - Central Scotland they are stopping many vehicles travelling, and asking if they are from one household in car and why they are travelling ad not letting up until they get a proper clear reason.

Goodfellers

16-Apr-20, 13:23

Corky Smeek

16-Apr-20, 15:08

This story in the P & J is more upsetting.

It really isn't you know! The P & J story is about potential harm. The PPE story is about actual harm happening in Scottish and Welsh communities right now.

Goodfellers

16-Apr-20, 15:43

It really isn't you know! The P & J story is about potential harm. The PPE story is about actual harm happening in Scottish and Welsh communities right now.

Maybe you should be diverting your anger at
Health Protection Scotland and ask them why they were not better prepared, as they had as much warning as anyone else this was coming.

It seems that every country has acted in its own interest, only today it emerged that France and Germany placed restrictions on exports of PPE...even trying to 'hi-jack' several million pieces destined for the UK!

Every country will learn from this pandemic. I don't think trying to 'political point score' will achieve anything. The Scottish government don't seem as concerned as you, nor any of the major news outlets.

BBC News 'Live' this morning ……

10:20
EU offers grieving Italy'heartfelt apology'
The president of theEuropean Commission has offered a "heartfelt apology" for lettingItaly down at the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic.
"Yes it is true thatno one was really ready for this," Ursula von der Leyen told the EuropeanParliament on Thursday morning. "It is also true that too many were notthere on time when Italy needed a helping hand at the very beginning. And yesfor that, it is right that Europe as a whole offers a heartfelt apology."
More than 21,000 peoplewith the virus have died in Italy, according to Johns Hopkins University - thehighest death toll in Europe.
As Italy struggled tocontain the outbreak in early March, both France and Germany placedrestrictions on the export of face masks - despite warnings from the EUCommission that such actions could undermine the collective response to thevirus.

Corky Smeek

17-Apr-20, 22:41

Maybe you should be diverting your anger at Health Protection Scotland

Or, how about directing some anger towards whoever authorised this:- https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/16/world/europe/coronavirus-antibody-test-uk.html

Goodfellers

18-Apr-20, 08:56

Or, how about directing some anger towards whoever authorised this:- https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/16/world/europe/coronavirus-antibody-test-uk.html

I think that's called a diversionary tactic.

Ps Article is behind a pay wall. I tend to copy and paste when this is the case. Not all of us are wealthy enough to subscribe to every online newspaper!

Edit: Just had a quick 'google' and it seems lots of countries purchased these test kits and are unhappy with the results. If the MSM is to be believed, these kits were approved by the EU health chiefs!!! It seems your damned if you try and do something and dammed if you don't. Who would want to be in government.