Annexing Scotland.....

[Green_not_greed]

Given what's happened in the Crimea, lets look ahead a few years to what could be the situation in the UK

2014 - the Scots people vote for independence

2015 - the empty promises, lies and half-baked ideas start to become very apparent. Independence doesn't seem that rosy after all

2016 - Labour win the Scottish election by a landslide

After winning the 2016 election, the new First Minister flies to London and asks the UK to take Scotland back in.

The UK government agrees and Scotland becomes part of the UK again after a "historic error". With or without army intervention.


So: if Russia get away with it in 2014, what's to stop it happening in the UK in 2016 or later ?

Comments/debate welcome......

[Rheghead]

Your presumption is that the promises are empty. With all that extra money and freedom to choose our own destiny, what's not to like? The No campaign has boxed themselves into a dilemma over currency. If they won't let us share the £ then we can lawfully default on our share of the National Debt. What is not to like? Since that is not going to happen then we share the £, promise fulfilled. What's not to like?

[PantsMAN]

2015 - the empty promises, lies and half-baked ideas start to become very apparent.

Of course, this could apply whichever way the vote goes...

[Kenn]

What extra money?
There is only so much that can be raised from taxation unless taxes are to be increased.
In the event of a vote for Independence, Scotland will have no credit rating so any borrowing needed to plug the gap between income and expenditure will be at a much higher rate, this would also affect any application to join The EU as it is one of the statutory requirements and after the fiascos of the last few years and the bail out costs that organisation will be applying the rules to the letter.
How many jobs will be lost as a result of closing Faslane, Rosyth other military establishments and how much compensation will be sought? This needs careful thinking about as we would lose Vulcan in a county which has already lost hundreds with the decommissioning of Dounreay.
I hear and read that it can all be funded by declining oil revenues, by not having to contribute to Trident and The House of Lords but no one is saying how much the latter two will actually save, certainly not the sums being bandied about in certain quarters.
What really surprises me is that none of these things have been thought through and no plans put into place , rather that it's all up in the air and we'll be flying by the seat of our pants for quite some time.

[Oddquine]

What extra money?
There is only so much that can be raised from taxation unless taxes are to be increased.
In the event of a vote for Independence, Scotland will have no credit rating so any borrowing needed to plug the gap between income and expenditure will be at a much higher rate, this would also affect any application to join The EU as it is one of the statutory requirements and after the fiascos of the last few years and the bail out costs that organisation will be applying the rules to the letter.
How many jobs will be lost as a result of closing Faslane, Rosyth other military establishments and how much compensation will be sought? This needs careful thinking about as we would lose Vulcan in a county which has already lost hundreds with the decommissioning of Dounreay.
I hear and read that it can all be funded by declining oil revenues, by not having to contribute to Trident and The House of Lords but no one is saying how much the latter two will actually save, certainly not the sums being bandied about in certain quarters.
What really surprises me is that none of these things have been thought through and no plans put into place , rather that it's all up in the air and we'll be flying by the seat of our pants for quite some time.

That would be the money we won't have to spend on defence, including Trident and its replacement, as part of the Union, the money we won't have to pay out to maintain 1500 MPs and Lords in Westminster with salries, expenses, pensions and other perks, the money we won't have to pay out to lease/maintain and staff 5000 foreign embassies/consulates, world wide, the money we won't have to pay out to maintain the bloated Westminster Civil Service, the money we won't have to pay out for the likes of HS2, refurbishment of the Houses of Parliament and the temporary accommodation for the Government during that time, the upgrade of Euston Station, the London Crossrail Tunnel, the London sewage system, the network of overseas military bases, the money we won't have to pay in increasing amounts towards the interest on the UK Debt Mountain, the money we won't have to pay for UK military campaigns/skirmishes and other interferences outside the country, the topping up of the reserve funds which Westminster then uses to cut Barnett consequentials to Scotland, NI and Wales, for example. I could probably come up with more, but it is getting late.

Bear in mind, what we actually get direct into our sweaty palms in hard cash from the Scottish Office, to blow on the devolved services, is about £27 billion.......the rest of the total £64 billion or so is spent for us by Westminster on welfare and things like the above which are allocated to us on a population proportional basis,as far as I know.......but happy to be contradicted if anyone knows better.

The credit rating will depend on how the currency is worked...we will have the same rating as the UK if Westminster does pragmatic and sensible and negotiates a currency Union (not my personal preference, I must say). If there is no Currency Union, there may well be no debt at all......we'd have to see how negotiations go regarding that. We will however have a credit rating, if we have to borrow.....because that is what you get if you borrow. The rating may well not be the highest one, but wouldn't be the lowest either, and the rates may be a bit higher initially than the UKs, until we are seen to be a good risk. Similarly with the EU(which again, is not my preferred option) .....because there is currently no precedent regarding Scotland's situation. Scotland does, however, already meet most, if not all, the requirements for EU accession. We should certainly meet the political criteria for initial application and the opening of negotiations, given much of them exist as a result of already being in the EU as a part of the UK. I think you are confusing the criteria for joining the EU with the convergence criteria for joining the Eurozone.....which does require a specific level of long-term interest rates to be achieved.

Faslane and Rosyth should not be closing, unless you expect that Scotland will have no Navy, no Naval base(s), no ships or alternatively, we will have indestructible ships which will never need maintenance or refitting. Though, if we stay in the Union, it has no guaranteed future either, after the aircraft carriers are completed. At least Scotland will still need ships...and they can bid for orders elsewhere. Didn't Babcocks even fit Railway carriages at one time when defence work was short? MOD contracts in a Union which is cutting back on defence budgets is not a reliable source of work anyway. 11,000 jobs have been lost in the defence industry in Scotland in the last twenty years under the Union....more chance of keeping Rosyth open if they diversify as they have in the past......maybe into oil/gas construction or the likes, than rely on the MOD needing more ships.

Thought Vulcan was either going on care and maintenance in 2015 anyway....or even being decommissioned....with at the minimum a big reduction in jobs both of Rolls Royce and local workers? Wasn't that an announcement ages ago by some bod from the MOD.........or have they changed their minds since then?

[Phill]

In 2016 'independent' pro Russian 'defence' forces take control of various Oil & Gas installations in the Scottish North Sea and Blockade Aberdeen Docks & Harbour and the former HMNB Clyde.

No UK MoD. No Trident. No NATO. No EU.

On the upside, the Russian Ruble will be used alongside the Pound until Dec 31st 2016 after which only the Ruble will be legal currency, so that will resolve that issue!
:Razz

[squidge]

And then an all powerful, loving God sends his son Jesus Christ back to earth to save God's own country from the evil ones. What that you are saying? A step too far? Surely not!

[ducati]

If there is no Currency Union, there may well be no debt at all......

Do pay attention, we are borrowing 12 Billion a year all on our own to fund the deficit, the difference between what we collect in taxes and spend on everything. If you don't have a portion of the UK debt you will still have that from day one.


Typical Nat, if it is inconvenient, ignore it.:roll:

[Humerous Vegetable]

Yes, and Alex Salmond has flight MH370 sat at Wick airport in the fond hope that Beijing will swap it for another pair of giant pandas......

[PantsMAN]

What extra money?
There is only so much that can be raised from taxation unless taxes are to be increased.
In the event of a vote for Independence, Scotland will have no credit rating BLAH BLAH BLAH

The facts are relatively simple. Scotland is the fourteenth richest country in the world and about the eighth richest in Europe.
The world's most respected rating agency, Standard and Poor, has stated that the Scottish economy, even without oil, would have the highest rating AVAILABLE, and is in a better position than the UK's.


There has been record investment in the North Sea over the last two years and no informed opinion suggest there is anything less than 50 years of valuable oil left in the present fields. Other experts, including Sir Ian Wood, suggest there is many more years than that and it appears likely that new areas like the Clyde basin will come on stream.


The International Energy Agency (IEA) reckons oil will increase in value up to about $250 per barrel. The British Ministry of Defence suggests it may reach $400 per barrel by 2040.

[orkneycadian]

In 2016 'independent' pro Russian 'defence' forces take control of various Oil & Gas installations in the Scottish North Sea and Blockade Aberdeen Docks & Harbour and the former HMNB Clyde.

No UK MoD. No Trident. No NATO. No EU.

On the upside, the Russian Ruble will be used alongside the Pound until Dec 31st 2016 after which only the Ruble will be legal currency, so that will resolve that issue!
:Razz

Might be more accurate than you think! If Holyrood drag their feet on the Island Independence referendum on the 25th of September, then we could just phone up our Russian friends and ask them to help us sort out a historical anomaly from 1468, and it will all be done and dusted in a week!

[Phill]

Might be more accurate than you think!I doubt it! ;)

(My think & know is pretty damn close)

[luskentyre]

Given what's happened in the Crimea, lets look ahead a few years to what could be the situation in the UK

Regardless of your thoughts on Scottish independence, I think comparisons with Crimea are neither realistic or in particularly good taste.

[guidinglight]

Whatever you all think, just take a look around. Caithness is poor run down place to live, and its not gonna get any better with independence

[Alrock]

Whatever you all think, just take a look around. Caithness is poor run down place to live, and its not gonna get any better with independence

But will it get worse?

[Kenn]

Err RUN down? guidinglight are you referring to the same county as the one I live in?
Where else can you have a golden sand beach all to one's self, watch Red and Roe Deer, Seals , Otters and some splendid bird colonies?
Enjoy cuisine that originates from 1/2 way round the globe?
Find shops that stock an amazing range of items with courteous , helpful staff and with prices that are not over inflated.
I do note the plastic that seems to adorn ever barbed wire fence, the dilapidated buildings in some areas and glory in those that have been restored in others.
Like all rural communities there are those that are happy living with the machinery that should have been scrapped many a year ago but still has a sentimental value, there is the strange local custom of abandoning cars and other machinery in the middle of fields. but I think this must be a ritual peculiar to the county.
AND after a recent visit to or capital city, even the pot holes have waned into insignificance after having been shaken to bits with the sink holes down there!

[orkneycadian]

there is the strange local custom of abandoning cars and other machinery in the middle of fields. but I think this must be a ritual peculiar to the county.

If you have the same issues over there as we do over here, then this local custom, which is also practised over here, has its origins in SNH's failure over the last 20 years or so to deal with a spiralling problem of pest species of bird, particularly Greylag Geese. Many fields over here now have old cars placed in them to act as deterrents to the geese, to try and salvage some grass from the fields. Modern day scarecrows if you like! At this time of year, it all most of us can do, as Greylags remain protected at this time of year.

You may or course express your displeasure with the goose problem directly to SNH. The more complaints they get, the better!

[Wizzbang]

Whatever you all think, just take a look around. Caithness is poor run down place to live, and its not gonna get any better with independence

Take a proper look around. I dont mean from your kitchen window or car windcren. Get out and about .
Caithness is a beautiful county.

Over the last few decades I fear it has been treated as a dumping ground, not only from the Scotish and english parliaments. Anything to make a quick buck of what the perceive as a barron waste land miles from anywhere.
Also there are a lot of people I fear, that have no appreciation of the uniquness of the area.
If you dont like it please Leave. (shut the door behind you)

[Hoggie]

If it's going to be 'poor and run-down', I can't think of anywhere I'd prefer to be poor and run-down in. I am often tempted to think more could be done to draw the tourists in, to keep our shops open and fill our pockets, but then I then worry about what coachloads of tramping feet would do to this beautiful corner of the land.

[Rheghead]

If ever there was a good reason to say 'Yes'


the case for independence is a pragmatic one in that it offers, paradoxically, the most likely way of preserving the greatest achievements of postwar Britain – the Welfare State, the NHS, free higher education – as well as the best chance to enact nuclear disarmament, a fair migration policy and the structural reform of landed wealth.

http://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2014/03/21/why-anti-nationalists-should-vote-yes/