Heading for a Conservative landslide?

[ducati]

Adding up the percentage of votes in the local council elections of UKIP and the Conservatives, it's looking good. :lol:

[John Little]

Not really

Average turn-out was 32%. Papers seem to be largely ignoring that one.

68% of people did not vote.

That's not looking good. That's looking like 'None of the above.'

Correction - the BBC put average turnout at 31%. Less than 1/3 of the electorate.

So Nige's mob got about 28% of 31%.

Move along folks - nothing to see here.

[ducati]

Not really

Average turn-out was 32%. Papers seem to be largely ignoring that one.

68% of people did not vote.

That's not looking good. That's looking like 'None of the above.'

Correction - the BBC put average turnout at 31%. Less than 1/3 of the electorate.

So Nige's mob got about 28% of 31%.

Move along folks - nothing to see here.

Yes but, the turnout is what it is, not what people want it to be. If the turnout is as low in the general election it will depend on what who turns out to vote, not what those that don't, wish.

If the above makes any sense to you, you need help.

[secrets in symmetry]

Yes but, the turnout is what it is, not what people want it to be. If the turnout is as low in the general election it will depend on what who turns out to vote, not what those that don't, wish.

If the above makes any sense to you, you need help.I know what you mean, and you are of course correct. :cool:

[John Little]

Yes but, the turnout is what it is, not what people want it to be. If the turnout is as low in the general election it will depend on what who turns out to vote, not what those that don't, wish.

If the above makes any sense to you, you need help.

Fairly axiomatic- but 10 years ago average turnout in Council elections was 41%. It does not say much for the health of our Democracy.

However the picture is very different at General elections- turnout should double. Or maybe more this time.

I would not read too much into these results. In your shoes I would be thinking that UKIP could split the Conservatives so badly that FPTP sees them both crash.

[Flynn]

Adding up the percentage of votes in the local council elections of UKIP and the Conservatives, it's looking good. :lol:

Here's a breakdown of gains and losses:

http://i1353.photobucket.com/albums/q672/Forumstufftoo/Forum%20bits/ScreenShot2013-05-03at182156_zps4de65a61.jpeg

Tory vote split between Cons/Ukip, both Cons and LibDems losing votes to Labour. Labour making biggest gains of all parties.

[ducati]

Here's a breakdown of gains and losses:

http://i1353.photobucket.com/albums/q672/Forumstufftoo/Forum bits/ScreenShot2013-05-03at182156_zps4de65a61.jpeg

Tory vote split between Cons/Ukip, both Cons and LibDems losing votes to Labour. Labour making biggest gains of all parties.

Pure statistics. Conservative voters don't vote Labour. Labour should have made up the losses from last time and were predicted to. They didn't, these ees beeg problem. :lol:

[Flynn]

Pure statistics. Conservative voters don't vote Labour. Labour should have made up the losses from last time and were predicted to. They didn't, these ees beeg problem. :lol:

Well I did choose verified statistics as I thought it would be better than wild speculation, which is what you seem to favour.

[Shaggy]

Well I did choose verified statistics as I thought it would be better than wild speculation, which is what you seem to favour.

ooooohhhhh nice one Flynn! :cool:

[ducati]

Well I did choose verified statistics as I thought it would be better than wild speculation, which is what you seem to favour.

Wild speculators vote Flynn. And it seems, the lower the turnout, the more nuts the result. :eek:

With such a low turnout, Cons. losing votes to Labour is speculation, as is any other conclusion as JL pointed out. Much more likely, everyone is losing votes to no shows.

[secrets in symmetry]

Ducati is obviously right about the result being significant despite the low turnout. Anyone who claims otherwise doesn't "get" polling - of the real or opinion variety.

Dorset is Conservative country, and there was indeed a landslide there (http://news.sky.com/story/1085107/dorset-landslide-cliff-collapses-into-sea). The other sort (that ducati would like to see) is most probably prevented by votes for UKIP.

[John Little]

You are such a Mathematician sometimes!

[ducati]

They really are getting a Bee in the Bonnet over an EU referendum. If the popular voters want one, there is only one place to go......

Personally, after many years of saying don't be daft, I would vote out. It's a club that no one wants us in because we don't want what everyone else wants, so what is the point?

[John Little]

http://www.europarl.org.uk/ressource/static/files/2012eutrade.pdf

Enjoy...

[ducati]

Sorry John it won't load. Is it about trade statistics? We could and would trade with Europe anyway surely?

A big advantage I see to being out, is we would be allowed to give contracts for government work to UK companies even if they didn't neccasarily come up with the cheapest tender. (look how well the Edinburgh trams are doing for instance).

In fact I went to the website and I can't get any document to load. :eek:

[John Little]

It does open.

A sample.

"Membership of the EU customs union, and the free movement of goods, remains beneficial to UK firms exporting to the EU. The UK has been instrumental in developing the Single Market in goods and promoting EU enlargement, which has helped to generate new markets, increased competition and reduced costs.The EU remains by far the biggest destination for UK trade in goods, but for exports in services the picture is less positive. Services account for 71% of total EU GDP but only 3.2% of this is a result of intra-EU trade. The failure to liberalise services within the Single Market and member states’ reluctance to compete on the global stage in this sector means the EU is punching below its weight in global talks on services, to the detriment of UK interests.Plainly, trade is only one part of the equation when it comes to assessing the costs and benefits of EU membership. There is a value to the UK’s ability to influence not simply the terms of trade but also EU foreign policy and enlargement.However, the price of membership remains high. Many of these costs are not directly related to trade, such as the UK’s contribution to the EU budget, the loss of national control over key political decisions that affect the British economy and society, and an increasing regulatory burden. Growing frustration with these costs has led some to suggest the following alternative trading arrangements outside the EU:"