The doors of perception

[secrets in symmetry]

Do you think humanity has learned anything new about politics in the last 60 years?

[joxville]

No. And politics hasn't learned anything about humanity either.

[John Little]

Yes.

The introduction of the H bomb as a deliverable weapon in the late 1950s taught the great powers a new caution in their seeking political outcomes. The knowledge that, for the first time in the whole of history, human beings had the power to destroy everything taught a caution which did not exist previously.


The notion of Existential Deterrence as opposed to mere Deterrence is definitely a new factor in politics on a global level.

[secrets in symmetry]

Good. :cool:

That's exactly what I had in mind, John.

[Neil Howie]

taught the great powers a new caution

yes the introduction of game theory by the Rand Corporation and its application to the USA nuclear weapon strategy was an important political development of the 50s/60s/70s imho.

[secrets in symmetry]

yes the introduction of game theory by the Rand Corporation and its application to the USA nuclear weapon strategy was an important political development of the 50s/60s/70s imho.Interesting....

Can you tell us more?

[Neil Howie]

Where to start ?!

Well you may consider John Von Neumann one of the best mathematicians of the 20th century or one of the evilest (you decide).

His paper on game theory (and later book with Oskar Mortgeson) is credited with making game-theory a credible modern day science.

To summarise:


Game theory is a branch of mathematics that deals with the analysis of games (i.e., situations involving parties with conflicting interests). In addition to the mathematical elegance and complete "solution" which is possible for simple games, the principles of game theory also find applications to complicated games such as cards, checkers, and chess, as well as real-world problems as diverse as economics, property division, politics, and warfare. link (http://mathworld.wolfram.com/GameTheory.html)

Von Neuman coined the phrase MAD - Mutually Assured Destruction, that in an arms race neither USA or Russia would attack each other as it would inevitably lead to their destruction.

Von Neuman also joined the RAND corporation, a "think tank" (originally founded in '46 as part of the USA Air Force). The RAND corporation is a topic of interest in itself, (e.g. search on "The Wizards of Armageddon"). Dr Kahn @ RAND was the inspiration for Dr Strangelove, and argued that America could survive a short all out nuclear war. He also dreamed up the Doomsday Machine, a device that could destroy all life on Earth, which Kubrick used in Dr. Strangelove. In fact, Kubrick borrowed so many of Kahn's sayings and ideas that the scientist began demanding royalties.

Link here: http://mentalfloss.com/article/22120/rand-corporation-think-tank-controls-america#ixzz2NHTu2BoZ



"The RAND Corporation's the boon of the world
They think all day long for a fee.
They sit and play games about going up in flames
For counters they use you and me."

The RAND hymn, Malvina Reynolds, 1961.

Game theory flourished at RAND - Flood and Dresher developed the most famous of the game theories.. emmm... games.. the Prisoners Dilemma. The Cold War it was argued, was best seen as being modelled as a Prisoner Dilemma (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisoner%27s_dilemma).

You may also be familiar with the mathematician John Nash, who also worked for RAND, from the movie "A Beautiful Mind", and how the Nash quilibrium contributed to game theory, economics and military strategy.

At this point I've gone on a bit, and recommend that an interesting watch would be Adam Curtis' documentary that was shown n BBC2 a few years ago. The episode is "**** Your Buddy" from the series "The Trap".

Curtis argues that the complex and co-operative nature of the world could not be simplified or explained by game-theory.

In fact when the RAND game theory modellers tried to run the Prisoners Dilemma on their own secretaries:

" .. they instead chose not to betray each other but to cooperate every time."

link to wiki on tv series (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Trap_%28TV_series%29)

[RagnarRocks]

I don't think humanity has learnt an awful lot in the last 6000 yrs let alone the last 50 yrs we are technologically more advanced we've done some truly amazing and astounding things but alas that core Human Nature is what gets it wrong so often not the good parts of our humanity the bad parts, greed avarice etc until we learn to control ourselves then then times will change the technology will change but the fundamental story will stay the same.

[George Brims]

yes the introduction of game theory by the Rand Corporation and its application to the USA nuclear weapon strategy was an important political development of the 50s/60s/70s imho.
Was it the RAND people who came up with the concept of "Flexible Response"? I heard that explained by a senior British military officer as follows: "First we fight with conventional weapons until we're losing. Then we fight with tactical nuclear weapons until we're losing. Then we blow up the world."

[secrets in symmetry]

Thanks Neil. I'll read up on it when I get some time - probably at the weekend.

[secrets in symmetry]

Was it the RAND people who came up with the concept of "Flexible Response"? I heard that explained by a senior British military officer as follows: "First we fight with conventional weapons until we're losing. Then we fight with tactical nuclear weapons until we're losing. Then we blow up the world."That's pretty much how it was described by a friend who used to work at the MoD!