Conservative Party Conference

[ducati]

Looking forward to all the great stuff we can have.

Already; bigger discounts for right to buy and a new house built for every one sold-who could complain about that?:lol:

[pmcd]

Always reminded of Peter Sellers 1958 recording "Party Political Speech" -

... My friends, in the light of present-day developments let me say right away that I do not regard existing conditions likely. On the contrary, I have always regarded them as subjects of the gravest responsibility and shall ever continue to do so. Indeed, I will go further and state quite categorically that I am more than sensible of the (exact) definition of the precise issues which are at this very moment concerning us all. We must build, but we must build surely. Hear, hear! - Let me say just this: If any part of what I am saying is challenged, then I am more than ready to meet such a challenge. For I have no doubt whatsoever that whatever I may have said in the past, or what I am saying now, is the exact, literal and absolute truth as to the state of the case. - Hear, hear! -I put it to you that this is not the time for vague promises of better things to come. For, if I were to convey to you a spirit of false optimism, then I should be neither fair to you nor true to myself. But does this mean, I hear you cry, that we can no longer look forward to the future that is to come? Certainly not! Voice from the audience: What about the workers? “What about the workers?”; indeed sir! Grasp, I beseech you, with both hands [Aside: I’m so sorry, I beg your pardon, madam.] the opportunities that are offered. Let us assume a bold front and go forward together. Let us carry the fight [noise of a blow being struck]against ignorance to the four corners of the earth because it is a fight which concerns us all. Now, finally my friends, in conclusion, let me say just this: [BIG SILENCE !!!]

[John Little]

I would rep you for that - but I can't!! Got to spread some round a bit more apparently.

[gleeber]

Not a lot of interest on the org. I wasnt very interested myself until I listened to Theresa Mays speech this morning. I like her but shes a right Tory. :lol:
Her attack on the human rights bill is interesting.

[weezer 316]

There are some elements within the tory party I detest and the attack on the human rights bill is emblematic of it. So short sighted. One idiot this morning criticized the Premier league tv ruling as interference in the country's affairs, blissfully unaware it seems in the fact it was clearly contrary to EU law in segregating the market.

[gleeber]

It took me a wee while to understand your last sentence.

[gleeber]

Thats another story though. :lol:

[Rheghead]

What is this about Theresa May stating that she intends to clamp down on loony human rights law after giving an example of a supposed case where a guy couldn't be expelled from the UK because he owned a cat? It now transpires that the story is bogus but it is frightening that tory MPs are forming Government policy as a result of Daily Mailesque bullshit.

[secrets in symmetry]

I admire Theresa May in a strange kind of way. How did she convince David Cameron to give her the Home Secretary's job? She must have something going for her... Mustn't she?

[ducati]

I liked the bit about frozen council tax and credit easing :D

[John Little]

So growth figures for the economy have been scaled down to 0.1%.

So the Prime Minister of the UK urges us to 'show some fight.'

Then;

'Doing everything we can to help businesses start, grow, thrive, succeed. Where that means backing off, cutting regulation- back off, cutting regulation. Where that means intervention- investment- intervene, invest. Whatever it takes to help our businesses take on the world- we'll do it'.

And that's the growth plan?

We're doomed....

[ducati]

So growth figures for the economy have been scaled down to 0.1%.

So the Prime Minister of the UK urges us to 'show some fight.'

Then;

'Doing everything we can to help businesses start, grow, thrive, succeed. Where that means backing off, cutting regulation- back off, cutting regulation. Where that means intervention- investment- intervene, invest. Whatever it takes to help our businesses take on the world- we'll do it'.

And that's the growth plan?

We're doomed....

And the better idea is?

Better to be in a recession with no growth than have the tiny grown we can achieve now and have interest rates rocketing. Think what a doubling of mortgage interests and increased rents would do to squeezed household budgets.

[John Little]

Austerity is strangling any recovery and the economy is tanking.

Up to the last election the forecast growth figures were round 2%.

The IMF no less has given an opinion that Britain could afford to raise debt by 50% of GDP to fund its recovery; without setting off a crisis.

But Wee Geordie will not budge, so we see food prices up by 5% in the last quarter, energy prices inflated by a grasping treasury and any hope of growth strangled because the banks owned by the taxpayer will not lend....

The economy needs massive injection of cash to stimulate demand.

Your position is looking a bit thin.

[ducati]

Austerity is strangling any recovery and the economy is tanking.

Up to the last election the forecast growth figures were round 2%.

The IMF no less has given an opinion that Britain could afford to raise debt by 50% of GDP to fund its recovery; without setting off a crisis.

But Wee Geordie will not budge, so we see food prices up by 5% in the last quarter, energy prices inflated by a grasping treasury and any hope of growth strangled because the banks owned by the taxpayer will not lend....

The economy needs massive injection of cash to stimulate demand.

Your position is looking a bit thin.

I believe not.

Look at the facts; Unemployment is running at about 2.5 million, that is half a million less than it was 20 years ago with a much lower population of working age people.

Against a backdrop of other world economies in near freefall we are holding our own. If you don't want any reduction in spending you're in the wrong place and the wrong time. But, if you want to be where the good times will role soonest, stick with it. And do not, under any circumstances listen to Ed Balls, as he has proved without a shadow of a doubt he is clueless and one of the most dangerous people on the planet at this time.

I am not a political psycophant, but I think Cameron's closing speech was just about spot on.

[John Little]

That extra half million is coming - and more.

You say we are holding our own; yet Germany and France and other countries have a faster growth rate than us. The reason why you may think we hold our own is because money is being squeezed out of the general public; it has a finite limit.

At some point there will be so little cash in the system that spending will implode.

Tesco has just had their worst quarter for over 20 years; and spending is down in all sectors. Jobs and companies are going to the wall.

So will demand implode.

Then 2.5 million unemployed will seem like the good old days.

Our government is taking a very dangerous gamble indeed for it leads to unemployment and poverty for millions, a deepening polarisation into rich and poor - and eventually extremism. The path is a well trodden one.

Remember Keynes's paradox of thrift. If we all save and do not spend, then demand will fall and the economy will lurch into a downward spiral.

Present policies will not bring recovery; they will make things far worse.

[ducati]

That extra half million is coming - and more.

You say we are holding our own; yet Germany and France and other countries have a faster growth rate than us. The reason why you may think we hold our own is because money is being squeezed out of the general public; it has a finite limit.

At some point there will be so little cash in the system that spending will implode.

Tesco has just had their worst quarter for over 20 years; and spending is down in all sectors. Jobs and companies are going to the wall.

So will demand implode.

Then 2.5 million unemployed will seem like the good old days.

Our government is taking a very dangerous gamble indeed for it leads to unemployment and poverty for millions, a deepening polarisation into rich and poor - and eventually extremism. The path is a well trodden one.

Remember Keynes's paradox of thrift. If we all save and do not spend, then demand will fall and the economy will lurch into a downward spiral.

Present policies will not bring recovery; they will make things far worse.

Well, we will just have to wait and see. If we emerge the other end with less debt in the system, both personal and corporate, we shouldn't get in this mess again. That makes sense to me, but much cleverer people than me agree and disagree so all I can do is just go with what feels right. Unless of course we vote the last shower back in, then we deserve what we get.

You metioned demand, look at ebay expanding, Amazon, and whole host of on-line retailers, Sainsbury are doing well and an upmarket supermarket chain are opening new stores and creating jobs. They obviously think it is worth the gamble.

[tonkatojo]

What is this about Theresa May stating that she intends to clamp down on loony human rights law after giving an example of a supposed case where a guy couldn't be expelled from the UK because he owned a cat? It now transpires that the story is bogus but it is frightening that tory MPs are forming Government policy as a result of Daily Mailesque bullshit.

Now Now Rhegy, don't forget she said "this has been authenticated". Typical tory trot.

[John Little]

Duke - I think that you are going to have to re-appraise after today's news. Cameron and Osborne have cut too fast and too deep.

Mervyn King, in announcing the latest tranche of quantitative easing says that there is a shortage of money in the country. He further states that we are in a 1930s situation where demand has plummeted because of this shortage of money.

Taxed too much and cut too deep- what this QE is about, more of what Labour did in 2009-2010 is saving Osborne's hide - because this is an admission of failure if I ever saw one. He's killed growth - and unless this money is used well, then we really will be in trouble.

[weezer 316]

Come on john, please. You are essentially saying borrow our way out of debt. Borrowing money isnt going to fix this, balancing our budget is. Even if the economy recovers brilliantly, we still wont raise £120bn a year extra in taxes to bridge the deficit, never mind start paying back what we owe. Infact we wont even get close!

This isnt a cheesy advert for consolidation loans, its literally the ability of our government to continue as a going concern

[John Little]

Actually Weezer I was paraphrasing what Mervyn King is saying.

When the coalition took over the economy was growing at about 1% per quarter.

Osborne and Cameron decided that there was enough surplus in the system to squeeze out from private into government coffers.

They assumed that the private sector was strong enough to take up the slack caused by cutting the public sector.

They also assumed that exports would compensate for a lack of domestic demand caused by the squeeze.

Both assumptions have now been shown to be wrong because our economy has flatlined and is in danger of shrinking, not expanding.
Inflation is 4.5% right now and the Bank estimates it will go over 5% within a few short weeks.

It's a funny thing that Osborne and Cameron are doing the quantitative easing thing - and will most likely have to do more next year.

In 2009 Cameron was dead agin it and said that QE would have to stop because printing money leads to inflation.

He thought that deep cuts and higher taxes would pull the economy out of recession - as if he were a householder doing his budget.

But this is not a household budget - it's a national economy.

They have made the wrong calls Weezer. They have not killed inflation but stimulated it. They have not increased output to 2007 levels, which they wanted to do - it has flatlined.

Cash is the oil which keeps the engine running. That's basically what King is saying today. And to me that makes a lot more sense.

I told you before - apart from my mortgage I have no debts.

And I am not buying much right now. How many jobs is that going to create?
The only way out of this mess is to spend spend spend.

But leave people nothing to spend and....

My high street has round the calendar sales on. Shops closing. Jobs being lost.

What's your high street like?

[John Little]

What gets me more than most things about this situation is how people forget the lessons of the past.

The chief architect of our post war financial system was Lord Keynes who attended both Bretton Woods and Dumbarton Oaks, setting up the IMF and the World Bank. One of the inventors of the system we have now.

And he said that trying to cure inflation by making cuts was like trying to push on a piece of string.

It seems so obvious to me.

But hey - who was that guy anyway?

[ducati]

What gets me more than most things about this situation is how people forget the lessons of the past.

The chief architect of our post war financial system was Lord Keynes who attended both Bretton Woods and Dumbarton Oaks, setting up the IMF and the World Bank. One of the inventors of the system we have now.

And he said that trying to cure inflation by making cuts was like trying to push on a piece of string.

It seems so obvious to me.

But hey - who was that guy anyway?

Look, it is like a business not a household. If you want to generate a (or more) surplus you can do three things. Sell the same amount but increase the price, Sell more, or if this isn't possible or desirable you can cut costs. If you cut costs you get free money. Simples

[John Little]

You need to continue that and fill in the missing bits.

The three things;

Sell the same amount but increase the price (Eg petrol, gas) which works for a while because you abuse a monopoly and people have no choice - until they have nothing left. They cut back spending on other things.

Sell more. You can't because rising costs in other areas have decreased the amount of money in circulation.

Cut costs - pay less and lay off workers. Then there are fewer people who can buy your product and your economy dives into the ground.

Not so simples.