National Grid is forecasting ZERO windpower output tomorrow Wed 31st August

[ywindythesecond]

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/153/windforecast30august201.jpg/ (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/153/windforecast30august201.jpg/)

National Grid is forecasting ZERO windpower output for about 12 hours tomorrow Wed 31st August

[Corrie 3]

Don't worry.....There's enough huff and puff on here to keep all the windfarms in Caithness turning!!!!

C3...............:roll:;)

[Rheghead]

for the purposes of balance, Rheghead predicts:-

1. more nuclear outages from Torness and Sizewell B because of mechanical breakdowns,
2. no solar electricity at night,
3. Mr Putin turning the gas cock to the off position
4. coal not getting a viable future due to sequestration not being cost effective
5. Wave power failing because there is no wind

:)

[ywindythesecond]

for the purposes of balance, Rheghead predicts:-

1. more nuclear outages from Torness and Sizewell B because of mechanical breakdowns,
2. no solar electricity at night,
3. Mr Putin turning the gas cock to the off position
4. coal not getting a viable future due to sequestration not being cost effective
5. Wave power failing because there is no wind

:)

All true Reggy! But windpower is what our Governments want even though it is the only generation technology which can be totally absent when needed and completely outwith our control. ( I am assuming that even our benighted Scottish Government would not plan to rely on solar power at night, but I am preparing myself to hear that it expects to rely on solar power to service Pumped Storage on a massive scale, such is the logic it uses)

[Rheghead]

All true Reggy! But windpower is what our Governments want even though it is the only generation technology which can be totally absent when needed and completely outwith our control.

Very true Ywy2, but think on the positive side,

wind farms will payback their carbon footprint within just a few months, operate at night, provide energy regardless whether Putin turns a cock stop or in his grave, or whether coal is the new green technology albeit because we have provided a big enough hole to make way for carbon dioxide

[orkneycadian]

Looks like they got it wrong then! [lol][lol]

Even on this allegedly windless (and windpowerless) day, the live link on this page....

http://www.oref.co.uk/

(http://www.oref.co.uk/)....at the time I posted it (for its live and keeps updating) says that Orkney is producing 2.29 MW from renewables (wind power then) but consuming 19.51 MW - 12% of demand or thereabouts Not bad for a windless day!

[ywindythesecond]

Very true Ywy2, but think on the positive side,

wind farms will payback their carbon footprint within just a few months, operate at night, provide energy regardless whether Putin turns a cock stop or in his grave, or whether coal is the new green technology albeit because we have provided a big enough hole to make way for carbon dioxide

Windfarms will pay back their carbon content within just a few months?? Ballocks. Show me the sums!!

[Rheghead]

Looks like they got it wrong then! [lol][lol]

Even on this allegedly windless (and windpowerless) day, the live link on this page....

http://www.oref.co.uk/

(http://www.oref.co.uk/)....at the time I posted it (for its live and keeps updating) says that Orkney is producing 2.29 MW from renewables (wind power then) but consuming 19.51 MW - 12% of demand or thereabouts Not bad for a windless day!

And what is more damning, the bmreports also show that zero generation never happened, something is quite wrong with that website in terms of accuracy or it should be treated as a very rough guide. Seem to remember that there are total and partial data failures with that site. The ROC register disproved JMT's claim that windfarms were 20% efficient, the real figure was much nearer 30% and the author of the reort based his figures on the Bmreports data.:Razz

[Rheghead]

Windfarms will pay back their carbon content within just a few months?? Ballocks. Show me the sums!!

Are you familiar with the REF?

Go read their report to Scottish ministers in terms of carbon payback, it is quite simple to follow.

[ywindythesecond]

And what is more damning, the bmreports also show that zero generation never happened, something is quite wrong with that website in terms of accuracy or it should be treated as a very rough guide. Seem to remember that there are total and partial data failures with that site. The ROC register disproved JMT's claim that windfarms were 20% efficient, the real figure was much nearer 30% and the author of the reort based his figures on the Bmreports data.:Razz

Can you expand on this please Reggy. "The ROC register disproved JMT's claim that windfarms were 20% efficient, the real figure was much nearer 30%" . I am not aware of any such disproval.

[ywindythesecond]

Are you familiar with the REF?

Go read their report to Scottish ministers in terms of carbon payback, it is quite simple to follow.

Can you provide me with a link or better reference please?

[orkneycadian]

Hardly a breath of wind out there now - Still doing 10%! :)

[Rheghead]

Can you provide me with a link or better reference please?


In the case of Baillie Windfarm, only 4% of the access tracks will be affected by peat and which is very thin, whilst the report is calculated for Whinash which was assumed rather erroneously to be built on a thick uniformed blanket bog/peatland.

http://www.viewsofscotland.org/snp_conference/PeatAudit-Guide.pdf

[Rheghead]

Can you expand on this please Reggy. "The ROC register disproved JMT's claim that windfarms were 20% efficient, the real figure was much nearer 30%" . I am not aware of any such disproval.

We went through the figures a while back, no remember?

[Rheghead]

But the rather big failing in the conclusions of the report by REF is that if the UK's carbon footprint ever gets to the point which zero or extremely low then any additional wind farm on the landscape should never make its carbon payback which rather ironic but they are using the flawed carbon payback of 3.5 years as a stick to kill off the development. Which is a poor show.

[Rheghead]

Can you provide me with a link or better reference please?

Having calculated the actual figures to see that Baillie windfarm will repay its carbon footprint back in just under a year

[ywindythesecond]

We went through the figures a while back, no remember?

No, refresh my memory please.

[Rheghead]

No, refresh my memory please.

remember I tallied the ROCs directly from the ROC register and calculated the load factors from my record of the growth of wind energy in 2010?

[Mystical Potato Head]

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http://i170.photobucket.com/albums/u254/ycats541/Death.gif

[Rheghead]

Ask admin for a seperate Energy and Environment Forum then or don't click on this sort of thread!Ask admin for a seperate Energy and Environment Forum then or don't click on this sort of thread!Ask admin for a seperate Energy and Environment Forum then or don't click on this sort of thread!Ask admin for a seperate Energy and Environment Forum then or don't click on this sort of thread!Ask admin for a seperate Energy and Environment Forum then or don't click on this sort of thread!Ask admin for a seperate Energy and Environment Forum then or don't click on this sort of thread!Ask admin for a seperate Energy and Environment Forum then or don't click on this sort of thread!Ask admin for a seperate Energy and Environment Forum then or don't click on this sort of thread!Ask admin for a seperate Energy and Environment Forum then or don't click on this sort of thread!Ask admin for a seperate Energy and Environment Forum then or don't click on this sort of thread!Ask admin for a seperate Energy and Environment Forum then or don't click on this sort of thread!Ask admin for a seperate Energy and Environment Forum then or don't click on this sort of thread!Ask admin for a seperate Energy and Environment Forum then or don't click on this sort of thread!Ask admin for a seperate Energy and Environment Forum then or don't click on this sort of thread!Ask admin for a seperate Energy and Environment Forum then or don't click on this sort of thread!Ask admin for a seperate Energy and Environment Forum then or don't click on this sort of thread!Ask admin for a seperate Energy and Environment Forum then or don't click on this sort of thread!Ask admin for a seperate Energy and Environment Forum then or don't click on this sort of thread!Ask admin for a seperate Energy and Environment Forum then or don't click on this sort of thread!Ask admin for a seperate Energy and Environment Forum then or don't click on this sort of thread!Ask admin for a seperate Energy and Environment Forum then or don't click on this sort of thread!Ask admin for a seperate Energy and Environment Forum then or don't click on this sort of thread!Ask admin for a seperate Energy and Environment Forum then or don't click on this sort of thread!Ask admin for a seperate Energy and Environment Forum then or don't click on this sort of thread!Ask admin for a seperate Energy and Environment Forum then or don't click on this sort of thread!Ask admin for a seperate Energy and Environment Forum then or don't click on this sort of thread!Ask admin for a seperate Energy and Environment Forum then or don't click on this sort of thread!Ask admin for a seperate Energy and Environment Forum then or don't click on this sort of thread!

[orkneycadian]

,Groundhog day again,
http://i170.photobucket.com/albums/u254/ycats541/Death.gif

Can anyone recommend to me any webpages that would help me find things on the internet? ;)

[2little2late]

So, no wind, no power. Good job the country doesn't rely on crappy waste of money windmills.

[orkneycadian]

33.5% of demand today!

[orkneycadian]

Nearly 72% of Orkney demand being supplied by Orkney wind turbines at the second in time I made this posting (according to the above link) - I guess the other 28% made up from Caithness wind turbines due to our position in the country, and the relative position of the "other" kinds of power stations.)

Is that so crappy? I quite like the idea that 100% of the power that Orkney is using at the moment is produced from wind, 72% of it "home grown"!

[ywindythesecond]

Looks like they got it wrong then! [lol][lol]

Even on this allegedly windless (and windpowerless) day, the live link on this page....

http://www.oref.co.uk/

(http://www.oref.co.uk/)....at the time I posted it (for its live and keeps updating) says that Orkney is producing 2.29 MW from renewables (wind power then) but consuming 19.51 MW - 12% of demand or thereabouts Not bad for a windless day!

You are right OKC, output bottomed out at 36MW from the 3696MW metered by National Grid. And no doubt Orkney turbines played a large part in that. But this is the significant point. For a large part of 31st August 2011, National Grid planned for NO electricity from wind generation, including a sizeable amount from offshore windfarms. The fact that it got 36MW is of no significance, it is effectively zero input. Now although that was the first time Zero output has been forecast, very low figures have been forecast on other occasions, and very low outputs have been recorded, as low as 1MW for instance.
It is demonstrated frequently by low or no wind events that UK has to plan to be completely unreliant on wind energy because, every now and then, there is no wind energy available. Yet UK and Scotland in particular is planning to be highly reliant on wind energy. What is the logic in that? And before someone trots out that Nuclear, Coal, and Gas are intermittent because stations can break down unexpectedly, wind is the only generation technology which can and will be repeatedly completely absent at unknown dates in the future, and more frequently than generally believed. (On 124 occasions between November 2008 and December 2010, total output from an average of approximately 1600MW connected capacity metered by National Grid was 20MW or less.)
And OKC, I am impressed by the OREC website display, but without knowing what the total connected capacity of windpower is in Orkney, the output figures are meaningless.

[orkneycadian]

Whats significant is that at the moment, Orkney demand is being met by 43% locally produced wind energy, the balance from Caithness produced wind energy. If the UK as a whole is not meeting that percentage, then we need more turbines in places like Orkney and Caithness where its windier more of the time! Simples!

[ywindythesecond]

Whats significant is that at the moment, Orkney demand is being met by 43% locally produced wind energy, the balance from Caithness produced wind energy. If the UK as a whole is not meeting that percentage, then we need more turbines in places like Orkney and Caithness where its windier more of the time! Simples!

On the 124 occasions when it was not windy anywhere, it was not windy in Caithness and Orkney either. When it is not windy everywhere, then no number of additional wind turbines will help. Not even 100 times as many turbines. 100 times zero is zero.

[orkneycadian]

Yesterday, during your prophecy of doom, Orkney was producing 10%

10 x 10% = 100% doesnt it? 10 times more turbines, and we are sorted in Orkney at least, even on days when Ywindy says there will be nothing!

[Neil Howie]

ywindythesecond is publishing the figures in order to get more windfarms.

Once you start astroturfing who knows where you end up?

Maybe he should spend his time working on an effective storage method for wind power to see through the low periods.

Probably be a lot of (tax payers) money in it, but the reward would be billion$?

[orkneycadian]

ywindythesecond is publishing the figures in order to get more windfarms.

He certainly puts forward a compelling case that to be effective, the UK's wind turbines should be built in places like Caithness and Orkney! :)

[Rheghead]

It is irrelevent anyway if there was zero capacity because there will always be reserve capacity on hand to step in like the grid has always had, what ywindy is not telling anyone is that reserve capacity can still be reduced (thus more savings to consumers) because wind can be relied upon more than conventional generation according to probablistic parameters..

[orkneycadian]

At the time of posting this morning, Orkney demand = 13.88 MW, Orkney wind turbine generation = 17.82 MW (No, these are not the wrong way round! ;) )

Orkney wind energy power production = 128% of demand, i.e. not only are all our demands being met, but we are shipping some of it across you you Caithnessians as well!

Glad to see no-ones burning fossil fuels on our account this morning!

[oldmarine]

With hindsight it appears that you people got stirred up for nothing. lol!

[dafi]

At the time of posting this morning, Orkney demand = 13.88 MW, Orkney wind turbine generation = 17.82 MW (No, these are not the wrong way round! ;) )

Orkney wind energy power production = 128% of demand, i.e. not only are all our demands being met, but we are shipping some of it across you you Caithnessians as well!

Glad to see no-ones burning fossil fuels on our account this morning!



Quality!!!

[secrets in symmetry]

ywindythesecond is publishing the figures in order to get more windfarms.

Once you start astroturfing who knows where you end up?

Maybe he should spend his time working on an effective storage method for wind power to see through the low periods.

Probably be a lot of (tax payers) money in it, but the reward would be billion$?
Yes, storage is the remaining big (huge, actually) issue for wind, and indeed for most renewables.

It's ridiculous to see the dipexcretias on both sides of the fence still "revealing" issues that were known and understood 10 or 30 years ago.

The 20% (or so) actual average load factor for most UK windfarms was expected by those in the know, and it was built in to future plans and worries, but it seems to be a big surprise to some so-called activists.

[ywindythesecond]

Yes, storage is the remaining big (huge, actually) issue for wind, and indeed for most renewables.

It's ridiculous to see the dipexcretias on both sides of the fence still "revealing" issues that were known and understood 10 or 30 years ago.

The 20% (or so) actual average load factor for most UK windfarms was expected by those in the know, and it was built in to future plans and worries, but it seems to be a big surprise to some so-called activists.

SiS, if you look back at my posts on this thread you will find that they have nothing to do with average output from windpower, but they are about the frequent virtually total absence of it.
Last Wednesday, 3696MW of connected wind capacity at one point produced only 36MW which is as good as zero. At 8am Saturday the same 3696MW was producing 1253MW, about one third of its capacity, and National Grid are currently forecasting 79MW from it at 8.30 am tomorrow, Sunday(See below). It will be higher or lower that 79MW, but it will still be effectively zero. Twice in five days this week the major power source on which our Scottish Government places its faith will have just not been there.
If you want two pints of milk a day and the milkman decides on which days he will deliver enough milk to meet your weekly requirement, say 4 pints Monday, 1 pint Tuesday, none on Wednesday, 1 pint Thursday, 2 on Friday, 5 on Saturday and 1 on Sunday, and he varies that every week, you would sack him.
But that is how wind energy is delivered. At least for milk you can store it, but you can't store national-consumption-sized electricity.

http://img832.imageshack.us/img832/4092/windforecast3sep2011.jpg (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/832/windforecast3sep2011.jpg/)









Uploaded with ImageShack.us (http://imageshack.us)

[orkneycadian]

How much diesel was Kirkwall Power Station burning yesterday morning at 0641?

[secrets in symmetry]

SiS, if you look back at my posts on this thread you will find that they have nothing to do with average output from windpower, but they are about the frequent virtually total absence of it.
Last Wednesday, 3696MW of connected wind capacity at one point produced only 36MW which is as good as zero. At 8am Saturday the same 3696MW was producing 1253MW, about one third of its capacity, and National Grid are currently forecasting 79MW from it at 8.30 am tomorrow, Sunday(See below). It will be higher or lower that 79MW, but it will still be effectively zero. Twice in five days this week the major power source on which our Scottish Government places its faith will have just not been there.
If you want two pints of milk a day and the milkman decides on which days he will deliver enough milk to meet your weekly requirement, say 4 pints Monday, 1 pint Tuesday, none on Wednesday, 1 pint Thursday, 2 on Friday, 5 on Saturday and 1 on Sunday, and he varies that every week, you would sack him.
But that is how wind energy is delivered. At least for milk you can store it, but you can't store national-consumption-sized electricity.
Yes, the problem is working out how to store what you call national-consumption-sized electricity. That was the point I made!

This problem is blindingly obvious to anyone who's aware there is no wind on some days. Various energy storage solutions were suggested decades ago, but they were not tenable at the time. You may be excited because you've just figured out the problem, and you have some numbers to back up your homework project , but please don't assume that everyone is as new to the game as you appear to be.

Are you as naive as Salmond of Arabia? Probably not, but the jury is still out on that one.

[Walter Ego]

I hear the banging of a tedious drum.

Those long winter evening must simply fly by......

[Neil Howie]

but you can't store national-consumption-sized electricity

ywindythesecond says it can't be done.

And he's right.

But something tells me it will be done - money.

Whoever develops this new technology will make a bucket load of money from it.

Battery technology up til about ten years ago was pretty basic. The technology's changing all the time. That's not to say it will be a battery as we know it. It could be some near-nuclear kind of storage. That's my tuppence. Some people think it will be storage by EV car, then feed surplus energy from the car back to the house.

To re-emphasise, if the market is to lead this, then money must be the driver:

“Rather than focusing on the environmental benefits the smart grid will reap, our report analyses which companies are best positioned today to capture value from smart grid opportunities,” says Jacob E. Grose

And also, "as good as zero" doesn't make the headline in the Press and Journal quite the same does it? A newspaper published from the city of oil will surely overlook that!


New batteries (http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/06/110607121139.htm)
Bill Gates and the liquid metal battery (http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/bill-gates-and-total-invest-in-sadoways-liquid-metal-battery/)
Wind stored by wind
(http://www.renewableenergyfocus.com/view/18658/energy-storage-the-caes-for-wind/)

[ywindythesecond]

ywindythesecond says it can't be done.

And he's right.

But something tells me it will be done - money.

Whoever develops this new technology will make a bucket load of money from it.

Battery technology up til about ten years ago was pretty basic. The technology's changing all the time. That's not to say it will be a battery as we know it. It could be some near-nuclear kind of storage. That's my tuppence. Some people think it will be storage by EV car, then feed surplus energy from the car back to the house.

To re-emphasise, if the market is to lead this, then money must be the driver:

“Rather than focusing on the environmental benefits the smart grid will reap, our report analyses which companies are best positioned today to capture value from smart grid opportunities,” says Jacob E. Grose

And also, "as good as zero" doesn't make the headline in the Press and Journal quite the same does it? A newspaper published from the city of oil will surely overlook that!


New batteries (http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/06/110607121139.htm)
Bill Gates and the liquid metal battery (http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/bill-gates-and-total-invest-in-sadoways-liquid-metal-battery/)
Wind stored by wind
(http://www.renewableenergyfocus.com/view/18658/energy-storage-the-caes-for-wind/)

Neil, you have put your finger on the problem. UK energy policy which promotes wind generation assumes that a solution to electricity energy storage will be developed at the same rate as wind energy capacity increases. A rational policy would say "When we are certain that the technology to store national-consumption-sized-electricity will be developed to suit the rate of wind energy generation expansion, then we will allow wind energy expansion to take place". At present we are looking at expanding the production of more energy than we can use or distribute.
Doesn't make sense.

[ywindythesecond]

At the time of posting this morning, Orkney demand = 13.88 MW, Orkney wind turbine generation = 17.82 MW (No, these are not the wrong way round! ;) )

Orkney wind energy power production = 128% of demand, i.e. not only are all our demands being met, but we are shipping some of it across you you Caithnessians as well!

Glad to see no-ones burning fossil fuels on our account this morning!


How much diesel was Kirkwall Power Station burning yesterday morning at 0641?

OK OKC. Let's say Orkney wind output for the whole of the day was 18MW which was greater than Orkney demand, and Orkney did not need to manufacture or import electricity as it was being supplied by its own wind generators, and that saved the cost of the fuel which would otherwise have been used by Kirkwall Power Station .
Were the Kirkwall Power Station workers sent home without pay? Did the local council rates get suspended? Was the servicing of the capital cost eliminated? Did they turn all the lights off? Stop using water? Shut down the control systems? Did they?
No they did not, but they did save the cost of the fuel, and that is all that was saved.

On the other hand, 18MW wind output for 24 hours would have produced 432 MWhrs of electricity which would cost consumers at least
£21,600 through ROCs in addition to the cost of the electricity produced and the cost of maintaining Kirkwall Power Station so that it will be there when there is no wind.

[ywindythesecond]

I hear the banging of a tedious drum.

Those long winter evening must simply fly by......

Try listening rather than hearing. What I am banging on about affects you and everyone else in the country.

[Rheghead]

On the other hand, 18MW wind output for 24 hours would have produced 432 MWhrs of electricity which would cost consumers at least
£21,600 through ROCs in addition to the cost of the electricity produced and the cost of maintaining Kirkwall Power Station so that it will be there when there is no wind.

But then how much would the citizens of Orkney have saved by generating their own electricity instead of importing expensive nuclear and gas electricity? Currently just £400 million/year is given out in ROCs but the NDA is spending £3000 million/year to decommission old nuclear powerstations which would equate to 6p on top of every kWh from nuclear if t wasn't being subsidised by the taxpayer. Seems like Orcadians are getting it right

[orkneycadian]

..... and the cost of maintaining Kirkwall Power Station so that it will be there when there is no wind.

The last I heard, they were taking a lot of stuff out of it - Used to be 9 or 10 generators in there. These last few years, I heard they have taken quite a few of them out and there are only about 4 or 5 left. One of the 3 big chimneys has gone too. I guess if theres less stuff in there, then it will take less to maintain.

[orkneycadian]

Tonights instantaneous production = 26.54 MW - Demand = 17.29 MW - 153% of local demand!

Its a shame CREF don't have the same thing on their webpage - Would be good to see how much is being produced relative to demand in Caithness as well!

[Rheghead]

Tonights instantaneous production = 26.54 MW - Demand = 17.29 MW - 153% of local demand!

Its a shame CREF don't have the same thing on their webpage - Would be good to see how much is being produced relative to demand in Caithness as well!

I assume you mean CWIF? CREF went defunct a few years ago.

Actually you have hit upon a good point there because despite their name, they are not interested in information about Caithness windfarms but rather propaganda. Real information would not be in their interests.

Nice to see Alex Salmond putting 3 anti-wind orgers to rights on the cover of today's P&J mind.

[orkneycadian]

Was actually Caithness Renewable Energy Forum I was thinking of. I thought they were pro renewable energy. CWIF seem to be wholeheartedly against it - Even though at the moment Orkney wind power is doing 125% of our needs, and a bit of Caithness's too!