View Full Version : Independence - will there be a referendum?
NickInTheNorth
06-May-11, 09:29
On the assumption that the SNP does finish up with an overall majority do you think there will be an independence referendum?
Or given that a referendum is only a manifesto commitment, and that the longest standing policy of the SNP is independence for Scotland will the First Minister show what size his cojones are and simply go for primary legislation establishing a free and independent Scotland?
I know which I would do...
Alex has said this morning that there will be a referendum, thats good enough for me!!!
C3....;):)
Yes I agree, there has to be a referendum provided that the SNP and the Greens together have an overall majority.
I'm pretty sure there will be a referendum within 6 months to a year at most, even if they have to go into coalition with someone else, should the referendum return a 'no' result I'd expect them to push for more powers specifically financial control, I think almost all Scottish parties support that.
EDIT: I suppose if they have an outright majority they could argue that's a mandate from the people especially as the popular vote also gives them about 48% so far. I'd still expect them to hold a referendum within 6 months though, just so no one can say they didn't keep an election promise.
If the SNP get a healthy majority, surely that is as good as yes at a referendum? Or do some people that vote SNP vote no to an independent Scotland? I'm genuinely confused
But the 'independence' isn't a real independence, just a watered down gimmick. So more waste of public funds, no?
The Music Monster
06-May-11, 10:50
Let's have the referendum - if only to put an end to all this speculation!!!
David from Stockport
06-May-11, 10:50
Dont know about independence for Scotland -wot about the UK getting out of Europe ? yes please !!
NickInTheNorth
06-May-11, 11:07
Maybe I hid the point I was trying to make a little too well :)
If the SNP have an overall majority, and as they have always stood for an independent Scotland, what would be to stop them simply moving to independence without the bother of a referendum which they would in all probability lose.
If I was in the shoes of Alex Salmond if I achieved an overall majority there is nothing that would stop me going straight for the required legislation for independence. I most certainly would not be risking testing public opinion simply because I had promised a referendum in a manifesto. I would just make the case that the fact that the people of Scotland had elected them to govern Scotland as with an overall majority in the parliament gave them a manadate to become independent.
But I don't know if he's got the guts to do it.
Time will tell!
(If he hasn't then I have no doubt at all that one of the first actions of the government will be to arrange a referendum.)
Dont know about independence for Scotland -wot about the UK getting out of Europe ? yes please !!
Ah ha, there we go. Someone has at least been looking at the bigger picture. (albeit skewed)
So, do we all know what the potential independence may be?
NickInTheNorth
06-May-11, 11:13
Dont know about independence for Scotland -wot about the UK getting out of Europe ? yes please !!
Ah ha, there we go. Someone has at least been looking at the bigger picture. (albeit skewed)
So, do we all know what the potential independence may be?
No Phil, what some two have now done is taken a thread totally off topic: the topic is speculation on what will the SNP do if given the ability to do it.
Europe and the UK are a totally seperate issue.
buddyrich
06-May-11, 11:14
Did he not say that there would be a referendum toward the end of this parliament? Although i realise that salmond's main talent is lying from both sides of his mouth so who knows.
I think they realise that they wont get a yes vote in a referendum, which is why they've not held one despite being in government for four years. It's simple, just ask us if we want it or not. If a no vote is returned, then the snp should be dismantled and an apology issued for 70 years of being a divisive and distractive waste of everyones time.
Independance isn't that abhorrent an idea per se, Scotland finding its feet as an independant country with the snp in charge definitely is.
Maybe I hid the point I was trying to make a little too well :)
If the SNP have an overall majority, and as they have always stood for an independent Scotland, what would be to stop them simply moving to independence without the bother of a referendum which they would in all probability lose.
If I was in the shoes of Alex Salmond if I achieved an overall majority there is nothing that would stop me going straight for the required legislation for independence. I most certainly would not be risking testing public opinion simply because I had promised a referendum in a manifesto. I would just make the case that the fact that the people of Scotland had elected them to govern Scotland as with an overall majority in the parliament gave them a manadate to become independent.
But I don't know if he's got the guts to do it.
Time will tell!
(If he hasn't then I have no doubt at all that one of the first actions of the government will be to arrange a referendum.)
I'd have no problem with that considering the Scottish election is PR based and they clearly got a majority of seats and a fair chunk of the popular vote, plus there was a pretty high turnout (50%)
Potential problems I can see are:
Down the line possibly in future elections people saying that they broke a manifesto pledge.
Some of their own MSPs rebelling over the issue, that's unlikely but possible.
As for when to hold the referendum if there's going to be one, two trains of thought really:
Hold it early to capitalise on success, problem with that is that the people that didn't vote who are also anti-independence could be galvanised and show in force.
People are fed up with the amount of recent elections so may not turn up, can't get my head around that one but it's true for some people. So they may want to leave it a few months.
If they leave it too long they could lose support because of some other political issue of their supporters could be apathetic.
They also want to avoid holding it over traditional holiday periods etc, as people could be out of the country.
EDIT: As I understood it others blocked previous attempts to hold a referendum, then when they legitimately didn't want to hold one near the end of a parliament when voters mind may have changed or when they had other policies to complete people jumped on them.
No Phil, what some two have now done is taken a thread totally off topic: the topic is speculation on what will the SNP do if given the ability to do it.
Europe and the UK are a totally seperate issue.
My apologies. However the EU, UK & and independence (however sought) are inextricably linked.
NickInTheNorth
06-May-11, 12:12
apology accepted, and I totally agree that EU, UK, Scotland and independence are inextricably linked, and would be delighted to debate that in another thread :)
weezer 316
06-May-11, 12:42
Disaster for this country. I simply cant believe how many people buy the SNP message without any investigation. Incredible naivity.
Here's hoping for a independence referendum soon. It will be rejected and we can get on with something more productive like blaming westminister for our rubbish weather
neilsermk1
06-May-11, 12:43
Alex has said this morning that there will be a referendum, thats good enough for me!!!
C3....;):)
Nice of Alex to say there will be a referendum, I thought that was for parliament to decide. Even if he has a large enough majority to swing it, I can't see the Scottish electorate supporting it. So my prediction is that he will prevaricate as long as he possibly can to avoid goingto the country on the independance issue.
Disaster for this country. I simply cant believe how many people buy the SNP message without any investigation. Incredible naivity.
Here's hoping for a independence referendum soon. It will be rejected and we can get on with something more productive like blaming westminister for our rubbish weather
Please tell us weezer.....which loser did you vote for ?
C3....:roll:;)
buddyrich
06-May-11, 12:59
Utterly remiss of me not to declare my support for the liberal democrats further up the board. I voted this way because i anticipated huge snp support as a backlash against the lib dems nationally. I underestimated just how much support the snp would get up here though, which is as sickening as it is saddening. There's nothing wrong with protest voting as a concept, but the problem with it is whoever you do support, they get in and get to implement their policies, regardless of how wacky they may be.
*Im not staunch lib dem though, i made my decision based on the polls in the past couple of weeks and the general feeling of dread that the snp might win up here.
weezer 316
06-May-11, 13:15
Please tell us weezer.....which loser did you vote for ?
C3....:roll:;)
tories. Only ones willing to do anything about the deficit. And bear in mind im from a family that my mum never worked, was an alchoholic and there was days when I didnt have dinners cause we had no money and I mnd once going 3 days without any electricity. Only then can you realise how imnportant it is to make sure you dont live on the never never, as we have been doing. Not exaclty an aristocrat.
SNP will, along with labour, drive this country to ruin.
(Sorry couldn't find anything more Scotland theme, alternatives here (http://knowyourmeme.com/memes/haters-gonna-hate))
http://i.imgur.com/DYc3w.jpg
Curiously - or perhaps not so much - I find the same types of argument and disingenuous reasoning used against independence were those used against AV/PR. It'll be interesting to see who funds the anti-independence campaign and what FUD (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fear,_uncertainty_and_doubt) (Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt) the tabloids come out with.
weezer 316
06-May-11, 13:25
Well for a start how about the the hole in their finances? Independence would give us control of the oil, or about 85% of it and thats what the budget is based on.......
http://www.scotlandoffice.gov.uk/scotlandoffice/files/Scotland%20and%20Oil%20-%20Background%20paper.pdf
Scottish office review of oil revenues for the past 25 years.
If the SNP get a healthy majority, surely that is as good as yes at a referendum? Or do some people that vote SNP vote no to an independent Scotland? I'm genuinely confused
I voted SNP but I'm not a nationalist. I will vote against independance in the coming referendum. Scotland is still a country in it's own right and Im as Scottish as John Bull's English. It doesnt take too much brain power to recognise which party will be best for Scotland at this election.
Alex Salmond is more than a politician, he's a statesman. He has to win me over if he ever wants Scotland to go alone and that wont be easy.
buddyrich
06-May-11, 13:32
A very important document because it shows how flimsy the oil-based economy arguement is.
Well for a start how about the the hole in their finances? Independence would give us control of the oil, or about 85% of it and thats what the budget is based on.......
http://www.scotlandoffice.gov.uk/scotlandoffice/files/Scotland%20and%20Oil%20-%20Background%20paper.pdf
Scottish office review of oil revenues for the past 25 years.
Didn't the government also produce a paper that said Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. That paper has no description of methodology etc, I doubt it would pass in a community college.
Anyway on a more serious note:
I'm sure oil will play some part but I'm sure it won't totally rely on that it's just a memorable talking point, Scotland has other resources, means of revenue and advantages, a lot more than some other nations who exist comfortably on their own.
That's not a reason against independence, that's like saying [Insert think or group] are too stupid to make up their own decisions even if a majority of them want to, we'll make them for you. This is a principled more than a pragmatic argument.
On a different note if conservative people (lowercase c) are all in favour of smaller government and local control, isn't Scottish independence ideal.
buddyrich
06-May-11, 13:48
Didn't the government also produce a paper that said Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. That paper has no description of methodology etc, I doubt it would pass in a community college.
That is classic. Beautiful trapezoid-insane deflection. Printed and framed that one. We will believe nothing the government says at all then because of their agenda. Oh apart from the snp who wouldnt sully themselves with something as vile as an agenda.
The big/small government thing doesn't stand up. We have devolution which seems to work ok, the only ones vocally discontent with it are the snp. The unionist parties are at least making a go of it. And we do pretty well out of membership of the UK plus elements of decision making have been devolved. The snp declare themselves to be left-moderates and they want things like a single police force for the whole country-an insane-sounding policy for those who want more local based decisions.
If I was in the shoes of Alex Salmond if I achieved an overall majority there is nothing that would stop me going straight for the required legislation for independence. I most certainly would not be risking testing public opinion simply because I had promised a referendum in a manifesto. I would just make the case that the fact that the people of Scotland had elected them to govern Scotland as with an overall majority in the parliament gave them a manadate to become independent.
But I don't know if he's got the guts to do it.
Time will tell!
(If he hasn't then I have no doubt at all that one of the first actions of the government will be to arrange a referendum.)
If he did that then I would expect a groundswell of public disobedience, civil unrest and even the possibility of civil war. Independence will only be decided by having a referendum.
Well, I think we should all vote for independence, it will be a laugh, and lets face it, what is life about if you can't have a giggle.
So, fast forward 10 years,we have had two periods of dictatorship. (the SNP is the only party who wants independence so all the others went home and His Grand Republicness is elected unapposed). However due to an unfortunate oversight, most of Scotland's money comes from England, there is no work, no money in the Republican Bank of Scotland (The original RBS you will recall is bankrupt and anyway owned by the English Taxpayer). There is very little food in Tesco because the exchange rate between the Pound and the 'Scotty' is so ruinous that Tesco find it more profitable to deal with Bangladesh and North Korea (that's a different story). There are mobs on the street calling for a return to democracy, The New Argyle and Sutherland Highlanders are refusing to open fire on their fellow Scots, but Secret Police (the Salmondys) are very happy to wade into the crowds and make mass arrests.
Hey, this is starting to sound awfully familiar.
Everyone assumes that every would-be separatist votes for SNP, I think there are quite a few separatists who are hardline Labour and LibDem voters who would vote yes for Scottish Independence given the chance but do not justify voting SNP because of other election issues.
weezer 316
06-May-11, 14:12
Didn't the government also produce a paper that said Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. That paper has no description of methodology etc, I doubt it would pass in a community college.
Anyway on a more serious note:
I'm sure oil will play some part but I'm sure it won't totally rely on that it's just a memorable talking point, Scotland has other resources, means of revenue and advantages, a lot more than some other nations who exist comfortably on their own.
That's not a reason against independence, that's like saying [Insert think or group] are too stupid to make up their own decisions even if a majority of them want to, we'll make them for you. This is a principled more than a pragmatic argument.
On a different note if conservative people (lowercase c) are all in favour of smaller government and local control, isn't Scottish independence ideal.
A huge budgetery hole certainly is a reason to vote against independence. Whilst not a clinching argument in its own right, in combination with the likely doubling of the cost of borrowing money (Ireland pays about double the interest rates we do being a small country) and the huge amount of debt we would carry if we took our proportional share of the UK debt, would be crippling. Alongside that, if ever another credit crunch happened which required a bailout of the likes of RBS, we would be Iceland on sterioids. The UK govt ploughed something like 8x scotlands entire GDP into the system to keep the banks afloat...........the mind boggles what salmond would have done. We would literally be bankrupt for the next 30 years, and then would have had to do what Iceland has done, and abandon its no-EU stance and join a larger market.
Scotland has the massive benefit of belonging to one of the worlds mightiest economic powerhouses. Lets not ruin it with vague promises of jam tommorow.
Furthermore, those figures that the report is based on are available from the office of national stats. Very trustworthy seeing as they are what the govt bases its spending on. Perhaps you have a more reliable source??
Smaller government....in relation to the size of country.
As it stands now there is enough seats to push through a referendum.
As it stands now there is enough seats to push through a referendum.
Yeah I'm pretty sure they could have got a referendum regardless, they have a fair share of the popular vote (high 40s) if people who voted for other parties are also for independance and if they show up and if campaigning or dodgy tricks doesn't convince people it's a bad idea then they might get it. Those are three big ifs though.
As for the other stuff, I'll wait and see what arguments both sides present.
(Sorry couldn't find anything more Scotland theme, alternatives here (http://knowyourmeme.com/memes/haters-gonna-hate))
http://i.imgur.com/DYc3w.jpg
Curiously - or perhaps not so much - I find the same types of argument and disingenuous reasoning used against independence were those used against AV/PR. It'll be interesting to see who funds the anti-independence campaign and what FUD (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fear,_uncertainty_and_doubt) (Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt) the tabloids come out with.
You are assuming that the UK gov. is apposed to separation just because they say they are? ;)
Well, I think we should all vote for independence, it will be a laugh, and lets face it, what is life about if you can't have a giggle.
So, fast forward 10 years,we have had two periods of dictatorship. (the SNP is the only party who wants independence so all the others went home and His Grand Republicness is elected unapposed). However due to an unfortunate oversight, most of Scotland's money comes from England, there is no work, no money in the Republican Bank of Scotland (The original RBS you will recall is bankrupt and anyway owned by the English Taxpayer). There is very little food in Tesco because the exchange rate between the Pound and the 'Scotty' is so ruinous that Tesco find it more profitable to deal with Bangladesh and North Korea (that's a different story). There are mobs on the street calling for a return to democracy, The New Argyle and Sutherland Highlanders are refusing to open fire on their fellow Scots, but Secret Police (the Salmondys) are very happy to wade into the crowds and make mass arrests.
Hey, this is starting to sound awfully familiar.
Typical tory. :roll: Not only that but a tory who will never change. Hes stuck up Thatcher and although thAt was some trip, she's gone now, poor wifie.
Yeel need a better argument than that if your going to be taken seriously over this issue. Thats a total disrespect of honourable men and women who have taken it upon themselves to do in the open what most of us can only do behind a keyboard.
Alex Salmond needs to be given an opportunity to explain how Scotland will be better off on it's own and itll take a lot more than oil to convince me, But attitudes like Ducatis are extreme and focus on the negative. If he was to use as much energy in supporting independance think how much more Scotland would benefit.
Everyone assumes that every would-be separatist votes for SNP, I think there are quite a few separatists who are hardline Labour and LibDem voters who would vote yes for Scottish Independence given the chance but do not justify voting SNP because of other election issues.
I'd agree with that.
But it also works the other way, a lot of people vote SNP because they're fed up with the other parties. Not all SNP voters are pro independence in the same way as not all the voters for Lib Dems are anti nuclear.
I'm all for this referendum (I'll be voting no), but what are the ground rules?
The way I see it, independence is a one way thing. Once we go, we're gone. There's no going back, and even if there was, it would be outwith our control.
That being the case, if there's a "No" vote, is that it over and done with? For how long? Can the nationalists just keep having a referendum every year until they get a "Yes"? If not, how long before they're allowed another? 10 years? 25 Years?
Also, what percentage would need to win? With only a 50% turnout yesterday, assuming that was a referendum, would 51% of that vote win independence? If so, it would only take 25.5% of the electorate to decide?
Alex Salmond needs to be given an opportunity to explain how Scotland will be better off on it's own and itll take a lot more than oil to convince me..... .
I hate the "oil" argument. It was valid 30 years ago, but now it's really not. Are we really going to make a decision as big as independence on a resource that will disappear within most of our lifetimes?
My concern is that the SNP's previous arguments, "look at Iceland", "look at Ireland", "We have a financial powerhouse in RBS" all suddenly collapsed because of a situation outwith our control. Britain could bail out RBS. Scotland couldn't have.
As I've said above, independence is a one way street, at least in terms of it being our decision. I'd hate to see us choose the wrong direction based on arguments like those above.
As I've said above, independence is a one way street, at least in terms of it being our decision. I'd hate to see us choose the wrong direction based on arguments like those above.
Your raising good points. The trouble is with nationalism, like toryism or labourism is they can never give an inch from their idealogical master.
Perhaps Scotland needs still more autonomy from the Union but a complete break should be avoided. The English also need a voice. Nothing wrong with nationalism and identity but the modern world demands multi-culturalism and why not?
Perhaps Scotland needs still more autonomy from the Union but a complete break should be avoided. The English also need a voice. Nothing wrong with nationalism and identity but the modern world demands multi-culturalism and why not?
True.
The English must feel hard done by in that they're the only member of this union without their own parliament or assembly.
I know my identity, Scottish through and through, but I can also take pride at being British at the same time. Even if that were not the case, I wouldn't want independence knowing that it would hurt us economically. Cutting of ones nose in spite of ones face......
I find it ironic that nationalists are wholly committed (and dependant) on the European Union whilst being so against the Union of Great Britain.
Typical tory. :roll: Not only that but a tory who will never change. Hes stuck up Thatcher and although thAt was some trip, she's gone now, poor wifie.
Yeel need a better argument than that if your going to be taken seriously over this issue. Thats a total disrespect of honourable men and women who have taken it upon themselves to do in the open what most of us can only do behind a keyboard.
Alex Salmond needs to be given an opportunity to explain how Scotland will be better off on it's own and itll take a lot more than oil to convince me, But attitudes like Ducatis are extreme and focus on the negative. If he was to use as much energy in supporting independance think how much more Scotland would benefit.
What a brilliant idea! Throw all your energy behind summink you don't want. Then if you don't get it you won't be disapointed. :D
As it happens, I very strongly believe that Independence would be very bad indeed for Scotland and the United Kingdom. I care very much about this. My overriding concern is that it is being seen as an interesting experiment. Bad idea, because sink or swim, there will be no going back.
What a brilliant idea! Throw all your energy behind summink you don't want. Then if you don't get it you won't be disapointed. :D
As it happens, I very strongly believe that Independence would be very bad indeed for Scotland and the United Kingdom. I care very much about this. My overriding concern is that it is being seen as an interesting experiment. Bad idea, because sink or swim, there will be no going back.
Why would it be bad for Scotland and why would they want to go back?
Why would it be bad for Scotland and why would they want to go back?
Blimey, I haven't got time. (I mean before I die) Why don't you tell us why it would be good?
I will give you a quick clue. I've done business in Scotland for thirty odd years, and I don't mean valeting cars, noble profession though it be :D. I have noted over the years that the business culture in Scotland, no doubt nurtured by the desire to attract the best investment, is driven by funding. What I mean by this is that a great many business's start or locate in Scotland, take advantage of the various special status it has had over the years, then once the funding or tax breaks or rate or rent holidays etc. dry up, they misteriously relocate elsewhere. Please don't think I am taring all, I can give many examples of business that is Scottish through and through and would never dream of relocating. But As I sit here I can think of at least 15 examples of ones that have cut and run. (and were very major employers).
Post Independence I see a major exudus.
Blimey, I haven't got time. (I mean before I die) Why don't you tell us why it would be good?
Go on ducati I have time. I dont think its a good idea but I have an open mind. Thats why I am asking you why and why. I still have to be convinced of the economics. You seem to be streets ahead of some very influential politicians when you condemn it. Lets discuss it in a respectful manner.
Go on ducati I have time. I dont think its a good idea but I have an open mind. Thats why I am asking you why and why. I still have to be convinced of the economics. You seem to be streets ahead of some very influential politicians when you condemn it. Lets discuss it in a respectful manner.
See edit above for an example. Another would be an almost total lack of infrastructure. North of Perth we have a communication system an emerging third world country would be proud of.
Whitewater
06-May-11, 22:42
It's been an interesting read this thread, lots of good points both for and against.
At this election I broke a life long voting pattern, deserted the Lib Dems and voted for SNP, not for the independence referendum but for the complete and utter change of Lib Dem ideals since they joined ranks with the Tories. I also happen to think that Alex Salmond is a great politician and leader for the SNP, he has also managed to do a lot of good for Scotland during his term as First Minister, he will hold the referendum but my betting is that it will be later rather than sooner.
I always follow 'Question time' on Thursday nights. On all the occasions that Alex has been a guest along with other distinguished politicians he has always come out on top, has always has the most most applause and support, and this coming from English audiences, his staight and sensible talking has won him many friends and raised his standing over the border
I am Scottish and very proud of it, I am also British and very proud of that. My view on independence is not for a complete breakaway, but a little more power than we have now. I also happen to think that England should have the same power as us to run their own country, but maintain a national British Government i.e. a federal British government. The same as the Australian, American and Canadian states, that system works very well for these countries.
We united the parliaments because Scotland was broke, we do alright out of England and also Europe, why fix it if it is not brocken.
northener
06-May-11, 22:43
See edit above for an example. Another would be an almost total lack of infrastructure. North of Perth we have a communication system an emerging third world country would be proud of.
Er, no.
We have an infrastructure that most third world countries would run a mile from.....;)
Er, no.
We have an infrastructure that most third world countries would run a mile from.....;)
Tell me more about the infrastructure problems along with the communications problems north of perth.
couple more things now I have had a kip.
We have a ridiculously large public sector to support a ridiculously small population. (If you think we have cuts now....).
The vast majority of the population is concentrated in to one central conurbation.
We have a population divided over so many different lines I don't know where to start; Edinburgh-Glasgow, West-East, North-South, Gaelic-non Gaelic speaking, Catholic-Protestant, Celtic-Rangers, hell even Wick-Thurso. That is not healthy. One thing uniting them is a universal hatred of the English (to a greater or lesser degree).
And the demographic, there is a reason we have 3 out of 4 major political parties with socialist agendas and one conservative with very little support. (you may disagree) but look around the world at successful western countries, this state is not normal.
In short, we do not have balance.
Ooh forgot the title of the thread :eek: Referendum, I hope so
You may see everything as a problem but I'm sure those Nationalists you laugh at will see it as a positive challenge.
At this moment Scotland will vote no but given time and some serious debate, who knows?
I still don't understand why it is even desirable, care to enlighten?:D
How much would oil revenue give?
I'd been working out whether my first vote in Scotland should have been for the SNP.
I've calculated that with the cost of the NHS, schools (including free school meals), universities, police, fire, unemployment, disability (including grants), care of the elderly, pensions, farming subsidies/grants, highways, actual cost of government, civil servants. Where individual costs weren't available I calculated it based on the population of Scotland.
Total costs came to £21.57 billion!
The published revenue from oil seems to be £12.2 billion
I've roughly calculated the amount of earnings from tax, NI, pensions, council tax from the governments published budget and taken 10% as the Scottish contributions.
I have not been able to find any info on council housing. There seems to be a disproportionate usage of housing between Scotland and the rest of the UK. We are quite fortunate here in most can gain places on the waiting list for council housing. In the rest of the UK it is based strictly on need - singles with no children are unlikely to get a house at all. For example one lady with a baby and a child under 5 spent 11 months in a homeless shelter and then were given a 2 bed 7th floor flat. They will be entitled to have a 3 bedroomed property when the eldest child reaches 10, until then the boy and girl will have to share a room.
I also haven't been able to find any information of legal aid.
There are bound to be costs I haven't included too.
As a result the cost are an underestimation...
But it still resulted in a deficit of £2.07 billion!
Also not taken into account is the Scottish committment to the national debt. I suspect the actual deficit is going to be far, far higher than £2.07 bil :(
Edit - also forgot to add the cost of the Royal Family, and the income - will independence be sought from the Royal Family too?
I still don't understand why it is even desirable, care to enlighten?:D
Just because you and me dont like the idea of Scottish Independance being desirable doesn't mean it may not be a good idea to someone else.
It's obvious that Scotland has it's own identity as a country within a multi-cultural world but how far its resources will enable it to be self supporting is the arguments for the coming debate.
I'm prepared to be convinced by proper debate. Are you or have you already made your mind up? If you have I'm prepared to listen to your opinion but it'll need to be a bit more substantial than it's been up until now.
Warning: This is slightly tongue in cheek!
I say "bring it on" Let there be a referendum on independence. Let it be won. Then, after the euphoria settles, let those who voted to be freed from the swingeing shackles of Old Albion in favour of Old Alba reap the result of the deficit which, as a previous correspondent noted, will grow at about £2bn minimum a year.
Then all Perfidious Albion has to do is wait, while Scotland increasingly uses the "Emigration Train" to provide exiled employment for its Staunch Sons and Daughters.
Once the deficit looks like imploding the whole country, thanks to declining tax revenues and consumer demand, then tap Old Albion gently on the shoulder and ask nicely if Scotland can come back and play again.
On, sadly, slightly less favourable terms than at present.
The only reason the Scots "hate" the English is that they know that without England's contribution to their OVERALL infrastructure, they would be scuppered.
(Actually, I don't see much in the way of the English being loathed here in Caithness)
And in any case, my reading is that the Scots would welcome the referendum, so that the majority could say "no" to seceding from the Union. (See poll!)
David from Stockport
07-May-11, 11:30
If the SNP got independence for Scotland what would they do if the Shetlands and Orkney then wanted independence for themselves ( not sure how much of Scotlands oil money is in those waters!) .
John Little
07-May-11, 12:43
The problem I have with Scottish independence is purely one of self interest.
From an objective point of view, if the people of Scotland want independence then they should have it, even though I am a unionist.
But please Scotland, reflect- Scotland has been Labour's Westminster stronghold. If you go for independence then the Tories will dominate the new English Parliament for ever. :eek:
Please do not abandon us to such a fate :eek:
Woah lot of misconceptions and logical fallacies here. I suppose if you repeat something enough times it gains mindshare and people start to believe it.
I'm going to wait for the official campaigns to make their opening statements and claims before I start supporting some and fighting others, but to clarify some things:
Scotland is the wealthiest region of the UK outside of London, if you remove London from the calculation it's wealthier than all of England; Scotland has a higher GDP per capita than any other region in the UK (source: statistics.gov.uk (http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/gva1209.pdf) another source (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_nations_by_GDP_per_capita))
Scotland has a budget surplus (http://www.newsnetscotland.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=315:independence-boost-as-scottish-fiscal-surplus-reaches-p35-billion&catid=1:politics&Itemid=2), actually it subsidises (http://www.newsnetscotland.com/economy/861-world-renowned-economist-says-scotland-subsidising-rest-of-uk) the UK according to a world leading non-UK economist.
Edinburgh is the most competitive city in the UK and has the fourth-largest financial sector in Europe (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edinburgh#Economy), it's also bigger than Dubai and Washington DC. Plus there are modern industries such as those in "Silicon Glen", tourism and food and drink exports are a major force as well.
We haven't even touched on renewables (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy_in_Scotland) or biotechnology, actually there's ton of other things I haven't touched on which relates to the financial stability of Scotland.
This (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/natural_resources/article3954031.ece) is probably also worth a read, though I tried to avoid mentioning oil at all.
EDIT: I'd like to make the point that the country isn't going to have to live on one resource forever, we can use revenue from current streams to fund R&D and develop other industries.
Just because you and me dont like the idea of Scottish Independance being desirable doesn't mean it may not be a good idea to someone else.
It's obvious that Scotland has it's own identity as a country within a multi-cultural world but how far its resources will enable it to be self supporting is the arguments for the coming debate.
I'm prepared to be convinced by proper debate. Are you or have you already made your mind up? If you have I'm prepared to listen to your opinion but it'll need to be a bit more substantial than it's been up until now.
Listen, don't get me wrong. If the people of Scotland vote for separation, and it is achieved in my lifetime, I will work tirelessly to help make it work. I have my whole life invested in Scotland so it would be in my own interest to. The fact I don't think it is workable shouldn't put those who think it is, off. (I'm sure it won't lol).
Listen, don't get me wrong. If the people of Scotland vote for separation, and it is achieved in my lifetime, I will work tirelessly to help make it work. I have my whole life invested in Scotland so it would be in my own interest to. The fact I don't think it is workable shouldn't put those who think it is, off. (I'm sure it won't lol).
I rate that as a massive change of position from your earlier contributions. Is this man ready to turn? :eek:
I rate that as a massive change of position from your earlier contributions. Is this man ready to turn? :eek:
Oh no. I still think it is a crap idea. I really don't look forward to living in a Socialist third world Banana (Haggis) republic.:lol:
Tubthumper
08-May-11, 09:18
I've had enough of everyone (including the Jocks and the English) shimfing about how awful everything is for the last 40 years, I fancy a change. Don't forget, we'd be part of Europe, and 'Scots' would relate to whoever was here be they called McLumpher, Ghandi, Carriolli or Wazowski. Or Smith.
Tubthumper
08-May-11, 10:46
Oh no. I still think it is a crap idea. I really don't look forward to living in a Socialist third world Banana (Haggis) republic.:lol:
... as opposed to a Capitalist third world Banana (Roast Beef) republic? :lol:
... as opposed to a Capitalist third world Banana (Roast Beef) republic? :lol:
There's actually little wrong with capitalism. A capitalist way brought about the luxurious way of life we have now. A situation where everyone expects the luxuries that have. How many people would sacrifice their way of life and their luxuries to become a one income, once car family and lose the annual holiday? There is a bit of capitalism in a lot of us...
What has changed is that with the change in the government there has been an increase in borrowing and people stretching themselves beyond their means to have what they see they are 'due'. My belief is this is part of what contributed to the collapse of the banks - although it is the banks fault for loaning money that people have no way of paying back.
The move away from capitalist ideals seems to have resulted in a society that things things are 'deserved' rather than 'earned'. People still want the luxuries that capitalism brings but don't seem to want to put in the effort that it requires.
Capitalism allows countries to grow, anti-capitalism causes them to shrink. Look at China - they have moved from a communist state and a 2nd world way of life to capitalism to the point they are the most productive nation on earth. They are the only nation that is still thriving while everyone else faces economic ruin. (edit - they do need to have a look at their use of fossil fuels though...)
I'm not sure how capitalism is a bad thing for Scotland - if the country were managed in a capitalist way, ensuring that the GDP exceeded spending rather than the reverse, then the country could be a huge independent success. Unfortunately I am not seeing the evidence of this. John Little quoted a GDP of £137 billion - I am yet to find evidence of this. My own calculations based on government published figures would still leave us with a £2 billion deficit. While I am all for Scottish independence to allow the country to continue to be as great as it is - it needs to be done under financial stability.
NickInTheNorth
08-May-11, 11:43
if capitalism is so good why do governments the world over feel it is necessary to intervene when markets cause situations which they dislike?
e.g. capitalism and free market economics drove the internaional banks to bankruptcy, the governments on our behalf spent billions of pounds of the next several generations money on bailing them out!
if capitalism is so good why do governments the world over feel it is necessary to intervene when markets cause situations which they dislike?
e.g. capitalism and free market economics drove the internaional banks to bankruptcy, the governments on our behalf spent billions of pounds of the next several generations money on bailing them out!
Unchecked borrowing caused the collapse of the banks - this is not a capitalist ideal it is a socialist ideal. Our capitalist society ended with John Major.
Again, capitalism is the least worst system, allowing - when properly regulated - for wealth to be created and (ideally) to be cascaded down through society.
What happened with the banks was greed, flaccid regulation, and a cartel mind-set internationally, which proved to be unsustainable.
Where does that leave us?
Fingers burnt, wise to the new knowledge that debt is NOT a good thing, and that financial freedom (NOT owing anything) is good for morale, health, and general quality of life.
That means living within your income, and using the magic words "I can't afford it"
When Scotland reaches that happy state, then independence is a genuine option.
Again, capitalism is the least worst system
Love that!!!
NickInTheNorth
08-May-11, 12:39
unchecked lending caused the problem, the banks had a choice, they lent irresponsibly, no-one can borrow what the banks will not lend.
I've said before I actually quite like capitalism, if it works the way it's supposed to work (rewards the best and brightest, those with ideas or those who put in work and effort). What's happened though is we have a sort of capitalistic oligarchy pyramid scheme that rewards friends, family and school/drinking buddies. A system that's too full of lawyers and patent trolls. It's become about who you know not what you know.
I mean there are different forms of capitalism but I'd argue governments don't practice any but their own * versions.
* - I can't believe the word b a s t a r d i s e d is censored it's a perfectly descriptive word in this context.
The banks and the borrowers were both guilty, m'lud - guilty of greed, guilty of living beyond their means, guilty of vacuous cupidity!
Lessons learned, line in the sand, move on, nothing to see here!
If the SNP got independence for Scotland what would they do if the Shetlands and Orkney then wanted independence for themselves ( not sure how much of Scotlands oil money is in those waters!) .
I've pointed this out before.
If Orkney and Shetland voted for independence, a large proportion of the current northern north sea oil fields would be in their sector, and the area seen most likely to bring big new finds is said to be west of Shetland.
With Shetland still supporting the Lib Dems, maybe they would have their own referendum to stay in the Union?
So a large amount of "Scotlands oil" would be gone.
Also not taken into account is the Scottish committment to the national debt.
That is something that everyone seems to be forgetting. Breaking up the union will mean splitting the assets, and the debt...... With UK debt at £900 billion, or thereabouts, Scotland would take its share of £90 billion. Suddenly the £12 billion a year from oil looks insignificant.
Also, the SNP have not been forthcoming with their plans for the Scottish armed forces. They were quick to get the popular vote campaigning against the regiments being amalgamated, and against the closures of Kinloss etc. Faslane? A lot of revenue from the UK armed forces will be gone.
I A lot of revenue from the UK armed forces will be gone.
I forgot to include that in my calculations... Would that be a positive or a negative? Would it go any way to making up my calculated £2 bil defecit?
* - I can't believe the word b a s t a r d i s e d is censored it's a perfectly descriptive word in this context.
I tried to use that word too in the same context - censored. I didn't do what you did as I already have enough infractions for trying to beat the swear filter.
I forgot to include that in my calculations... Would that be a positive or a negative? Would it go any way to making up my calculated £2 bil defecit?
Vastly negative. The UK spend a lot of money on armed forces in Scotland.
Vastly negative. The UK spend a lot of money on armed forces in Scotland.
I love it when rhetoric is answered :)
.
Also, the SNP have not been forthcoming with their plans for the Scottish armed forces. They were quick to get the popular vote campaigning against the regiments being amalgamated, and against the closures of Kinloss etc. Faslane? A lot of revenue from the UK armed forces will be gone.
And a lot of taxpayer money will be saved, as an independant Scotland will not have to pay for murderous campaigns in Iraq and Libya and Afghanistan et al. Nor will we have to fork out our share for replacing a completely obsolete and irrelevant nuclear missile programme.
And a lot of taxpayer money will be saved, as an independant Scotland will not have to pay for murderous campaigns in Iraq and Libya and Afghanistan et al. Nor will we have to fork out our share for replacing a completely obsolete and irrelevant nuclear missile programme.
Scotland is a net reciever of UK defence spending.
Scotland is a net reciever of UK defence spending.
I wonder how your figures will looks when Leuchars and Kinloss are surplus to requirement. Then again, there may be an increased British army prescence in Scotland in the run-up to a referendum. Call-me-Dave seems to have acquired a taste for gunboat diplomacy.
I was thinking more that we may not need any armed forces at all. (Sorry Gleeber I'm getting all positive again).
Old Alex thinks we can be influential in the world using our native charm and common sense. (Although I can see Shetlands ambition for succession causing our first war).
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