View Full Version : Smoking Ban, killing British Pubs while cigarette sales undented.
An interesting correlation between the introduction of the smoking ban and the decline in the numbers of pubs.
http://web1.wisetigerhosting.co.uk/~thetma/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/pub.pdf
And when the British cigarette consumption is graphically (I did it in Excel on my computer) displayed using the data below, the introduction of the smoking ban hasn't had any extra impact over and above the existing decline of cigarette sale trends from previous years.
http://www.the-tma.org.uk/tma-publications-research/facts-figures/uk-cigarette-consumption/
Interesting reading eh? :confused
Interesting indeed.
The decline in Pubs was well underway before the smoking ban, but I'd like to hear from the lobby groups, largely responsible for the smoking ban, to justify the lack of effect re. ciggy sales.
orkneycadian
24-Oct-10, 16:40
Maybe I am missing something, but isn't the decline in cigarette sales post 2006 50% greater than the decline in pre 2006? In the years immediately preceding 2006, the decline is pretty consistent at 2 billion per year, whilst post 2006 its quite consistently 3 billion per year. 50% increase in the rate of decline in numbers of cigarettes sold, no?
I guess as well, as the absolute numbers get smaller and smaller, providing the decline stays at 3 billion per year, thats becoming an ever increasing percentage change each year.
Regarding pub closures, as Ducati says, started a lot earlier than the smoking ban, with lots of factors at play including;
Changes in attitude to driving to the pub for a pint or 2 and driving home
Ever increasing alcohol duty and now VAT
The never ending encroachment of the supermarket and them selling drink at less than cost as loss leaders
Changes in attitudes towards socialising, whereas folk would rather stay at home and interact through a social networking site rather than go out and meet fellow human beings for real!
I don't think you can so readily compare the figures between pub closures, the smoking ban and drops in cigarette consumption, as each have their own set of factors, not related to each other.
I as a person that enjoys the odd pint in a pub and an ex smoker also, am grateful for the smoking ban in pubs, but I disagree Rheg, with blaming the smoking ban with the demise of public houses, the Breweries and Spirit Makers are the biggest culprits putting up their prices continually, then we have the Supermarkets playing the opposite, selling cut price booze, currently a 12 can case of John Smiths currently is selling for £6.00 in Asda, I did cherry picked this as I do like the odd J Smiths.
Then next I blame the Corner shops around here, all are licensed to sell alcohol, if I had my way I would cut the number of these licenses premises.
In a 500 yard radius of my home there are 7 pubs, all making money as far as I can tell, (I only use 1 of them) in the same 500 yards there are 10 shops with licenses, and 2 supermarkets.........what chance do pubs have with that competition.
Maybe I am missing something, but isn't the decline in cigarette sales post 2006 50% greater than the decline in pre 2006? In the years immediately preceding 2006, the decline is pretty consistent at 2 billion per year, whilst post 2006 its quite consistently 3 billion per year. 50% increase in the rate of decline in numbers of cigarettes sold, no?
Well I beg to differ that there is any statistical significance on that. I've charted the data on to Excel and as you can see below, the gradient of the graph does not change significantly after when the smoking ban is introduced in 2006 for Scotland or especially in 2007 for England when the supposed effect should be more apparent. The fall in ciggie consumption does get slightly steeper in 2005 when there was no ban.:eek:
http://i48.photobucket.com/albums/f244/Rheghead/unknowns/cigarettes.jpg
orkneycadian
24-Oct-10, 17:21
b = billions...
2002 = 76b - 2003 = 74b - Change = 2b
2003 = 74b - 2004 = 72b - Change = 2b
2004 = 72b - 2005 = 70b - Change = 2b
2005 = 70b - 2006 = 67.5b - Change = 2.5b - First of smoking bans start
2006 = 67.5b - 2007 = 64.5b - Change = 3b
2007 = 64.5b - 2008 = 61.5b - Change = 3b
2008 = 61.5 - 2009 = 58.5 - Change = 3b
Fancy graphics aside, the source data shows that in the 3 years prior to the first of the bans, consumption dropped by 2 billion a year, in the year of the first of the bans, it was 2.5 billion less, and in the 3 years since the start of the bans, its been dropping 3 billion a year. How can that not be a 50% step change in rate of decline?
What is probably significant about the data is that there is a steady fall in cigarette sales which coincides neatly with the government tenure of the Labour Party.
What is disappointing about the graph is that the drop in ciggie sales does not fall significantly in 2008 and 2009 when the ban should have begun to bite harder on the habits of pub going smokers.
changilass
24-Oct-10, 17:30
As the ban on smoking in pubs was brought in to stop folks inhaling others fumes, rather than to stop folks from smoking, I don't see what point you are trying to make with your graphs.
If however you were to do graphs showing pubs closing before and after the ban that would have more significance on your opening post.
b = billions...
2002 = 76b - 2003 = 74b - Change = 2b
2003 = 74b - 2004 = 72b - Change = 2b
2004 = 72b - 2005 = 70b - Change = 2b
2005 = 70b - 2006 = 67.5b - Change = 2.5b - First of smoking bans start
2006 = 67.5b - 2007 = 64.5b - Change = 3b
2007 = 64.5b - 2008 = 61.5b - Change = 3b
2008 = 61.5 - 2009 = 58.5 - Change = 3b
Fancy graphics aside, the source data shows that in the 3 years prior to the first of the bans, consumption dropped by 2 billion a year, in the year of the first of the bans, it was 2.5 billion less, and in the 3 years since the start of the bans, its been dropping 3 billion a year. How can that not be a 50% step change in rate of decline?
Well there should be an apparent big step change when the ban was implemented in England as the population in England is 8 times higher than Scotland.
But there isn't. Conclusion is that the smoking ban has failed one of its biggest fringe benefits of encouraging smokers to pack in.
As the ban on smoking in pubs was brought in to stop folks inhaling others fumes, rather than to stop folks from smoking, I don't see what point you are trying to make with your graphs.
If however you were to do graphs showing pubs closing before and after the ban that would have more significance on your opening post.
If you had looked at the link in my opening post then you would have seen exactly that.
orkneycadian
24-Oct-10, 17:32
2002 - 2003 - 2.63% drop
2003 - 2004 - 2.7% drop
2004 - 2005 - 2.78% drop
2005 - 2006 - 3.6% drop - First of smoking bans start
2006 - 2007 - 4.4% drop
2007 - 2008 - 4.7% drop
2008 - 2009 - 4.9% drop.
changilass
24-Oct-10, 17:36
Don't do links, would rather folks say what they have to say rather than relying on someone else to make their point.
OR... people are starting to get a lick of sense and realising that not only is smoking but drinking is bad for you?
amazing how ppeople scream about save the whales, go green, save the enviroment.. but the one thing they should treat as a temple.. ie their body.. is treated like a sewage system,
What the data may indicate is
1. that smokers are staying at home and exposing smoke to people at their home who can't leave like kids etc.
2. The Tobacco industry was wrong to oppose the smoking ban on the basis of falling cigarette sales.
Rheg Your original Post was about the demise of Pubs since the smoking ban, not the amount of cigarettes smoked since the ban came in, I gave my reasons for disagreeing with your point of view, see post#4 please have the good manners to reply.
changilass
24-Oct-10, 17:53
No 1 could simply be that they are choosing to stay at home and smoke out in the back garden, therefore not subjecting their kids to smoke.
If you alwways see the worst in folks that is how they will behave.
What the data may indicate is
1. that smokers are staying at home and exposing smoke to people at their home who can't leave like kids etc.
2. The Tobacco industry was wrong to oppose the smoking ban on the basis of falling cigarette sales.
This is not your original point of view[disgust] !!!!!!!
orkneycadian
24-Oct-10, 17:56
These smokers are pretty harsh on their bairns then! Pre smoking ban, they would clear off to the pub every night, then come home drunk. Post smoking ban, they inflict the bairns with lung cancer!
At least with the latter, the bairns get to see their parents from time to time!
quite correct, it is a new twisty add-on
I as a person that enjoys the odd pint in a pub and an ex smoker also, am grateful for the smoking ban in pubs, but I disagree Rheg, with blaming the smoking ban with the demise of public houses, the Breweries and Spirit Makers are the biggest culprits putting up their prices continually, then we have the Supermarkets playing the opposite, selling cut price booze, currently a 12 can case of John Smiths currently is selling for £6.00 in Asda, I did cherry picked this as I do like the odd J Smiths.
Then next I blame the Corner shops around here, all are licensed to sell alcohol, if I had my way I would cut the number of these licenses premises.
In a 500 yard radius of my home there are 7 pubs, all making money as far as I can tell, (I only use 1 of them) in the same 500 yards there are 10 shops with licenses, and 2 supermarkets.........what chance do pubs have with that competition.
Totally agree with you i bought a box of 15 bottles of becks for £6 out of asda on saturday you can see why people get tipsy at home then head into town and then dont need to spend a lot its the supermarkets that are killing of the local pubs.
£6 for box of beer any teenagers pocket money can afford that no wonder you see teenagers getting blitzed.
Thats why its more common now for the young ones to have a carry out at home with there mates then head straight to the nightclub and bypass the local pub
Well there should be an apparent big step change when the ban was implemented in England as the population in England is 8 times higher than Scotland.
But there isn't. Conclusion is that the smoking ban has failed one of its biggest fringe benefits of encouraging smokers to pack in.
Was that really one of the reasons for banning it? I thought it was to do with providing a healthy work environment for those required to work in pubs?
Was that really one of the reasons for banning it? I thought it was to do with providing a healthy work environment for those required to work in pubs?
You are right of course. The legal impetus for the ban was what you said but I read a lot of commentary from smokers who supported the ban because they wanted to give up and go to the pub but couldn't because smokers would light up in front of them and from non smokers who reasoned that the ban would make it awkward for pub going smokers to carry on smoking and so they will pack in. I did say 'fringe' benefit.
Most smokers I know just look for ways around it, or facilities which allow them to still get a fag..............giving up just does not cross their minds!!!
Most smokers I know just look for ways around it, or facilities which allow them to still get a fag..............giving up just does not cross their minds!!!
Indeed, reasoning behind some of the health benefits is flawed in both directions.
Smokers can't reason that it is rather silly to stand out in the cold for 5 minutes every half hour or so when there is a warm pub with all the social scene just inside the door.
And non smokers can't reason that smokers will go to desperate lengths to maintain their habit. :lol:
loganbiffy
24-Oct-10, 19:30
I'm an ex-smoker who has worked in bars for years. I like the smoking ban, why should you put up with being polluted at your workplace?
It's not even a big deal, times change, get on with it and continue living your life. The world is not going to stop evolving for anyone.
I love the way those sad pariahs gather round outside - can't fail to look pathetic. Much better than them polluting my atmosphere.
ughh i remember when i worked in a pub as a bartender while preg. and people would be smoking all around me .. i couldnt get away from it. then i would be frowned at for running to the loo to spew as it was making me sick!
giggles, saying that i also made several cust.look at me funny when they asked my advice on what to drink.. IE what do you like yerself... and i told them.. i didnt drink!
a bartender named Brandy that dosent drink! *G* oh the irony!
flowertot
24-Oct-10, 21:16
As always the stats don't actually tell the full story I think. If you were to break down these stats into age groups I reckon you would see a steep drop in young people starting to smoke as people have to remove themselves from the area of attention to have a fag which leaves them on the periphery of the conversation which is a place teenagers most certainly do not want to be!
Another generation and they will be laughing at the stupidity of their fathers and granfathers inhaling so many poisonous chemicals into their bodies and dying young from cancers caused by these 'coffin nails'
I love the way those sad pariahs gather round outside - can't fail to look pathetic. Much better than them polluting my atmosphere.
there is only one benifit that has come out of smoking outside a bar and that is you start talking and having a laugh with people you would have never have talked to before
there is only one benifit that has come out of smoking outside a bar and that is you start talking and having a laugh with people you would have never have talked to before
I think there's lot more benefits than just that!
there is only one benifit that has come out of smoking outside a bar and that is you start talking and having a laugh with people you would have never have talked to before
Eddie, dont know about you, but thats what I usually go into a pub to do in the first place, meet pals and other people.
Personally, I supported the smoking ban and feel that it made all meeting places much nicer places to be. Mrs R and I stopped going to the pub for two key reasons - 1) it got too ruddy dear and 2) I couldn't have a drink so it was pointless. :eek:
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