Swine flu [Archive] - Caithness.Org Forums

Sara Jevo

05-Jun-10, 17:14

There's an interesting conspiracy theory starting to brew, following a piece in the British Medical Journal, about the financial interests of the scientists who advised the WHO about swine flu . . .

World Health Organization Scientists Linked to Swine Flu Vaccine Makers (http://abcnews.go.com/Health/SwineFlu/swine-flu-pandemic-world-health-organization-scientists-linked/story?id=10829940)

Neil Howie

06-Jun-10, 12:51

Leanne

06-Jun-10, 12:56

Good question, where does flu go to?

Latest research (reported 30/5/2010) suggests it goes on holiday for a while...

where is the flu (http://www.livescience.com/health/etc/flu-hides-does-not-die-100530.html)

I disagree with their hypothesis. I believe that as more people become infected the flu is exposed to more people that are resistant either from natural immunity or immunologically due to previous exposure. These people then become carriers and incubate the virus until a mutation occurs and infectiousness increases.

I may be completely wrong but that is my idea :)

crayola

06-Jun-10, 13:05

I disagree with their hypothesis. I believe that as more people become infected the flu is exposed to more people that are resistant either from natural immunity or immunologically due to previous exposure. These people then become carriers and incubate the virus until a mutation occurs and infectiousness increases.

I may be completely wrong but that is my idea :)
You seem to make a big thing of 'belief' for someone who professes to be a scientist. :confused

I've noticed this feature in many of your posts. Can you explain?

Leanne

06-Jun-10, 13:23

You seem to make a big thing of 'belief' for someone who professes to be a scientist. :confused

I've noticed this feature in many of your posts. Can you explain?

It is not yet proven definitively how 'the flu' migrates and changes - why there are quiet times at certain times of the year. The scientist's view in those articles is a theory with some facts to substantiate it. Having read around the topic (which is of interest to me both personally and professionally) I have found some limitations in how they interpret their data.

I haven't said that they are wrong. I simply said I disagree with their hypothesis. Their data is very strong but could be interpreted in a different way. My own theory is also just that, a theory. That is why I said it is what I believe.

There will probably be others researching what I believe in other parts of sciencehood. I am not vain enough to think that noone else would reach the conclusion of my theory.

I have tried to explain as you asked. Could I ask the same courtesy of you? Why do you say I 'profess' to be a scientist? It has me a little perplexed. Is this meant in a derogotary or disbelieving way? I can't think of any other situation why this word would be included in a sentence...

crayola

06-Jun-10, 19:23

I'll address the last bit first......

I wasn't deliberately trying to cast aspersions and I didn't think about how I worded that last post because I was in a rush before going out. If I had been a little more thoughtful I might have said I thought you were 'a scientist who professes to use scientific methods' or 'a scientist whom I would expect to at least pay lip service to scientific methods in your post'. Would either of those be more acceptable?

I haven't said that they are wrong. I simply said I disagree with their hypothesis. Their data is very strong but could be interpreted in a different way. My own theory is also just that, a theory. That is why I said it is what I believe.Yes but you didn't say why you disagree with their hypothesis or how and why you would interpret their data in a different way so it was easy to interpret it as unsubstantiated belief for no good reason.

Leanne

06-Jun-10, 19:42

Yes but you didn't say why you disagree with their hypothesis or how and why you would interpret their data in a different way so it was easy to interpret it as unsubstantiated belief for no good reason.

Religion is also unsubstantiated but we don't ask followers to prove their beliefs. I give up...

crayola

06-Jun-10, 19:48

Religion is also unsubstantiated but we don't ask followers to prove their beliefs. I give up...But there's huge difference there. Religion isn't labelled as science by all but the lunatic fringe.

You give up far too easily. :(

Leanne

06-Jun-10, 20:04

Religion isn't labelled as science by all but the lunatic fringe.

Hmmm I believe it is in some cases

Serenity

06-Jun-10, 20:11

Hmmm I believe it is in some cases

I think crayola covered that in the "all but the lunatic fringe" part.
I have agreed with a lot of your posts recently, sticking up for science a lot, but to compare science with religion is a bit silly.

Leanne

06-Jun-10, 20:44

I have agreed with a lot of your posts recently, sticking up for science a lot, but to compare science with religion is a bit silly.

Maybe it wasn't the best analogy - they never are are they lol. I was just after a case where people believe based on faith alone. Maybe I should have picked the believe in aliens analogy, or the belief that the world really is round without actually seeing it with our own eyes...

crayola

06-Jun-10, 20:56

Maybe it wasn't the best analogy - they never are are they lol. I was just after a case where people believe based on faith alone. Maybe I should have picked the believe in aliens analogy, or the belief that the world really is round without actually seeing it with our own eyes...
Some analogies are indeed better than others but only the deluded seriously compare religion with science.

As for your last bit...I have seen the horizon. Your analogies aren't getting any better. :lol:

So tell us...why do you not believe that flu goes on holiday in the summer?

Leanne

06-Jun-10, 21:13

So tell us...why do you not believe that flu goes on holiday in the summer?

Maybe we should set up an experiment with four islands, one completely separate from the rest of the world with no travel on and off, one separate from the rest of the world but migration and immigration allowed, both of these we infect the population with the flu. Then we have two identical islands with similar populations and conditions but we don't infect them with flu. I think this experiment would determine whether flu leaves and returns or whether a current strain simply mutates and infects again.

Neither the 'holiday' theory or my 'resistance and mutation' theory can be adequately proven. We simply have to take the evidence given and make our own minds up.

It's not that I don't believe the other theory, it's just I find my explanation more plausible given my interpretation of the data. Others may not agree - that is what peer review is all about though. Someone may write a fantasic paper but once it is published it may be taken to pieces and it's value naked. Just out of interest what was the peer review like on the original article?

crayola

06-Jun-10, 21:47

Let's try to do your experiment then. Which islands shall we use and more importantly who can we get to fund it?

Can I ask some more immediate and probably very naive questions?

Why do you think the danger of swine flu was overestimated?

Do you think the vaccination programme helped to stop it spreading in this country? Or have we just not heard much about it because it hasn't killed as many as was feared?

canuck

07-Jun-10, 00:00

As a card carrying member of that lunatic fringe to which crayola refers, I would like to suggest that the campaign for thorough and frequent hand washing probably stopped the swine flu epidemic in its tracks. Recently the Canadian press reported that the flu cases this past flu season were way, way down from previous years. The professionals attribute it to the serious attention to hand washing brought about by the intensive educational program surrounding the swine flu concerns.

As to the lunatic reference, I am a supporter of the traditional Oxford system which defined theology as the 'Queen of the Sciences.'

crayola

07-Jun-10, 00:48

I do not believe that hand washing killed swine flu in this country. Nor do I believe in belief for its own sake. :confused

Fran

07-Jun-10, 00:52

Surveys are regularly sent to patients who have had swine flu to update what ilneses they have suffered since, so at least an eye is being kept on these peoploe.

sandyr1

07-Jun-10, 11:44

I do not believe that hand washing killed swine flu in this country. Nor do I believe in belief for its own sake. :confused

Reported Stats shows it does. Perhaps not KILL, but definately is a good thing/ they say that the hand wash/sanitizer with alcohol in it is also a good way, but then the Winos got hold of it.
Wern't they tracking the flu thru Airline Routes??
And believing in belief...could that be 'unbelievable'?

horseman

07-Jun-10, 14:37

People can post an opion without the spec/ quals. How does a post grip you? So you dunno'--but you have an opinion!!!(might not be the best speller in the world either) but don't dare tell me I am am not entitled to an opion on the org.An I dunno where that came from1

Neil Howie

08-Jun-10, 21:48

Ooh I go away for a few days, and see what I've missed!

Leanne is right to be skeptical, it keeps us on our toes and is a good immunisation against the media barrage that inundates our senses.

To answer her question,

The research was funded by Howard Hughes Medical Institute, the National Institutes of Health and the National Science Foundation. It was detailed online May 27 in the journal PLoS Pathogens (http://www.plospathogens.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.ppat.1000918#abstra ct1)

I also put a link in to the full article.

We find that although China and Southeast Asia play the largest role in the migration network, temperate regions, particularly the USA, also make important contributions. Not all temperate strains of influenza die out with the end of the winter season. Instead many strains emigrate to more favorable climes.
PLoS Pathogens (http://www.plospathogens.org/static/information.action) is an open-access (http://www.plospathogens.org/static/license.action) journal that publishes important new ideas on bacteria, fungi, parasites, prions, and viruses that contribute to our understanding of the biology of pathogens and pathogen-host interactions.

crayola

13-Jun-10, 13:40

Reported Stats shows it does. Perhaps not KILL, but definately is a good thing/ they say that the hand wash/sanitizer with alcohol in it is also a good way, but then the Winos got hold of it.
Wern't they tracking the flu thru Airline Routes??
And believing in belief...could that be 'unbelievable'?
What are you mumbling about? What I said was.....

I do not believe that hand washing killed swine flu in this country. Nor do I believe in belief for its own sake. :confused
I wasn't claiming that hand washing doesn't prevent the spread of swine flu, I said I don't believe that hand washing killed swine flu in this country and that's because I didn't observe a huge increase in hand washing.

Leanne

13-Jun-10, 14:22

I didn't observe a huge increase in hand washing.

You live in a small town in the most northerly county in the country. Your observations are hardly indicative of the country as a whole... That's like saying a lemon is pith all the way through because that is what the surface is ;)

crayola

13-Jun-10, 14:28

You live in a small town in the most northerly county in the country. Your observations are hardly indicative of the country as a whole... That's like saying a lemon is pith all the way through because that is what the surface is ;)
Your dallying with botox is turning into an embarrassment for you. :roll:

sandyr1

13-Jun-10, 15:00

[quote=crayola;721890]What are you mumbling about? What I said was.....
And your last post to Leanne
And of course your Memorable post about speaking with Stephen!!!

Just wondering where you come up with your 'magical' words?? Pray tell....
Nice way to be....